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Picks...and Fumbles!

2012-01-14T14:06:00.000-08:00

The network is down in Afghanistan right now, which means no football! Fucking bullshit. I have a gamecast open for the first game. Here are my picks:

SANFRANCISCO(+3.5)over neworleans

denver(+13.5)over NEWENGLAND

houston(+7.5)over BALTIMORE

GREENBAY(-7.5)over newyork

Other than the Pats game, where I don't really care about the outcome, I am rooting against all my picks. Tebow winning again would be fun for the unintentional comedy of it, but I don't really want to convert to Tebowism and start worrying about the rapture if he goes all the way. Call me selfish. On the other hand, I can't bring myself to root for any team that plays defense as badly as the Pats. Other than the Saints, that is.

Speaking of the Saints, they are down 14-0, in what is turning into a turnover fest...except the 'Niners haven't returned the favor. After the last score, the gamecast seemed to think New Orleans fumbled the kickoff, but recovered it, but now it's SF ball, so apparently they didn't. This is getting ugly. At least it is making me look like a genius.

I know the Ravens are capable of destroying opponents at home, but I can't bring myself to give more than seven points to a team playing against Joe Flacco. I've heard that Ravens(-1.5), Packers (-1.5) will be a popular tease, but I think I would rather go Packers(-1), Pats(-7). I know nobody is supposed to be able to run on the Ravens, and they stopped Houston before, but every time I watch the Texans play, that running game seems unstoppable.

The 'Niners settled for a field goal. Three touchdowns and the Saints cover. Three touchdowns and a David Akers field goal, and the 'Niners cover but lose.

Right now the last play is under review. It looks like the Saints may have lost a 3rd fumble, along with one Brees pick. Four turnovers in under 18 minutes is no way to go through life.

Finally. The Saints retain possession. Lets at least keep this interesting.

My fantasy tight end just scored. JIMMY GRAHAM! 17-7.

I'd love to see the Giants upset the Packers, but 7.5 sounds reasonable. Eli is capable of keeping the Giants in a shootout, and the D-line is capable of getting to Rodgers, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Go back and watch some 2007 Packers and see how much better the 2011 Rodgers is than the 2007 Favre. If you don't get to Rodgers, you are toast. Six point toast? Maybe, but I'll lay the 7.5.

I went 3-1 last week. I was right on the Texans, Giants, and Broncos, and wrong on the Lions, though an errant whistle cost the Lions an early 21-7 lead. The Lions would probably have more trouble holding a 21-7 lead than the 'Niners will have holding a 17-7 lead, but still.

Speaking of which, the 'Niners just punted. I need another Akers field goal to feel good about my pick. I get nervous every time the Saints get the ball back.

17-14, on a 25 yard pass to Colston. Can the 'Niners burn 4:09 and go into halftime with a lead? Brees is 20/25 for 188 yards. Makes you wonder what the score would be if the Saints hadn't already committed three turnovers.

Second half, and the 'Niners just got a field goal. Needless to say, a six point lead is GREAT for my pick...especially if I still want the saints to win.

The big gain on the drive was a 57 yard punt, five yard Darren Sproles return, Darren Sproles fumble. Other than that, they gained 24 yards on eight plays.

Insanity. More points scored in the last four minutes than in either half. My worry when the Niners got down close was that tehy would force OT, and the Saints would end up winning by four (new rules!) or six. Instead Vernon Davis gets his second TD, and the Niners win by four. Something tells me they'll have a rough time of it next week if they don't get five turnovers, but hey--the Packers D sucks. I'm going to go look for a TV. I should have had one for that game.

Still no TV, and New England is up 35-7 at halftime. I think I'm going back to bed.

Late Playoff picks

2012-01-08T10:18:00.001-08:00

I'm stuck in Kuwait, and haven't had internet since yesterday morning, so I didn't get my playoff picks out on time. I'm also rusty, since I haven't been able to bet all year, so you probably don't want them anyway.

The internet here is so ungodly slow that I couldn't even get my Falcons at Giants pick in on time. It's still 0-0, six minutes and 4 punts into the game. NYGIANTS(-2.5)over atlanta. I was already leaning toward the home team, but on 5dimes.com, you can actually give less than 3. They have enticing spreads there all the time, which is why this is the site I tried to open an account on earlier in the season...in fact, I HAVE an account there, it's just too much of a pain to put $$ in it from Afghanistan. When I get back, I will bet here, and so should you. The only other thing worth considering would be to take NY(-2.5), and atl(+3). If you could get atl(+3.5), this would be my recommendation.

Backing up, I had HOUSTON(-3)over cincinnati. Basically a fantasy homer pick, since Arian Foster and Andre Johnson came up big in fantasy for me last year. Along with that, Houston's running game is usually downright scary. In fact, it may be the scariest thing in the league this year, after the Packers, Saints and Patriots' passing attacks. Of course, this one is over, Texans, 31-10. And that running game was downright scary. Interestingly, to get to the Super Bowl, the Texans must face one or both of the defenses capable of shutting them down (Baltimore and possibly Pittsburgh), or one of the passing games capable or running the score up enough to negate said running game (New England)...unless Tim Tebow beats both the Steelers and Patriots. If they get to the Super Bowl, they will probably need to beat one more of these scary passing games (Green Bay or New Orleans) or possibly the only other team capable of stopping their running game (San Francisco). I guess I'm still not crazy about Houston's chances, much as I LOVE that running game.

In both an actual and fantasy homer pick, I had detroit(+10.5)over NEW ORLEANS. How homer? In addition to being a Honolulu blue blooded Lions fan, I had Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best last year, and Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, Titus Young, and Matthew Stafford this year. Detroit almost got me the back-door cover everyone was talking about, when they closed to within 38-28 in the 4th quarter, but the Saints extended their lead to 45-28 for the front-door(?) cover. At the end of the game, Drew Brees was downing the ball near the Lions goal line, so New Orleans could have blown the door off the hinges and hung 50. I usually don't have to worry about this level of irrationality from my picks, as the Lions usually do me a favor and miss them.

Atlanta has gotten Eli Manning to illegally ground the ball in the end zone for a safety, and the Falcons are driving, up 2-0, and up 4.5 on my small as possible spread. If the Giants get their shit together, this smells like a game Eli brings them back to win by...2. 21-19, for instance. That would suck.

I'm taking DENVER(+9)over pittsburgh. I don't trust the Broncos to score, but I don't exactly trust the Steelers to score either. I see this one ending up 13-7, or 16-10. Could it end up 20-3? Sure it could, but give me the points. I know everybody would rather hear hyperbole about Tebow sucking, or miracles, but I think a tight, low scoring game is just as likely.

Looks like the internet here sucks enough that I can't publish, either. Fucking bullshit. Giants just scored...7-2. The semi-mouthy Falcons fans near me are shutting the fuck up...for now.

Jets-Broncos game diary / Teblowin' in the wind

2011-11-17T18:09:00.001-08:00

I got up at 6 a.m. to watch the Teblowing. It's Friday morning in Afghanistan, so it's Thursday night in America, and we are a week before Thanksgiving, so Thursday Night Football is part of the NFL landscape the rest of the way.

The Jets are in Denver for the game, and with their past record when travelling west being less than stellar (see their recent loss at Oakland) the chances of some Teblowing are better than you might think.

What is Teblowing? Well, Tebowing is when you drop to your knees in prayer at relatively random moments. I say relatively, because these moments are not random to Timmy T.--but they would be random to his peers.

If you take any of it seriously, Tebow's stance makes sense. Lots of players give a prayer of thanks after they score. By then it's too late. Why not pray while the outcome is still in doubt? Of course, Tebowing as a celebration, like Lions players did three weeks ago after sacking Tebow, is not really praying, and some went as far as to say the Lions attacked Tebow's religious freedom &/or beliefs.

Former Indiana Pacer Jalen Rose countered this, claiming that players mocking Tebow would ultimately make "Prayer Tebow" iconic the way "Air Jordan" is. Something like that. Maybe Rose can help him market a new set of knee pads every year. Or maybe Rose was just sticking up for the Lions. He is a Michigan guy, after all.

Anyway, Tebowing is taken. That's why we need Teblowing, to describe a two for eight passing performance that still results in a gritty win.

Does it have to be a gritty win? Well, when you run the ball 56 times in a game, it will probably be a gritty win...or a gritty loss. Very gritty. Especially if the field is muddy.

The third quarter is winding down, and this game is becoming more and more Teblowish as it goes on. Tebow started out four out of five passing, but has since gone two for seven, for a current total of six for twelve for 69 yards. A full Teblow requires sub-50% pass completions.

A pass to the sidelines just fell incomplete. Six of 13, and we're in business.

Pass out of bounds. Six of 14, and the Broncos punt.

It was 3-3 at halftime, and in the third quarter the Jets took a 10-3 lead on a fumble recovery on first and goal. That score held up until Mark Sanchez threw a pick-six that knotted the score at ten. The full Teblow requires that the Broncos win, though Denver is bad enough that I'd consider partial credit for keeping a game close where the opposition is favored by 13 or 14. Close losses won't help the Tebow legend, however. Teblowing is about WINNING. Tebow is a WINNER...who blows...most of the time.

Six of 15, on a pass WAY out of bounds. We're in TEBLOW territory now. At this point Tim can win the game with a big play, and still stay comfortably below 50%. NICE. Not this drive, though. That was third down.

They just came back from a TV timeout to show a bevy of buxom Bronco cheer-babes. Too bad Black Francis isn't here. He would appreciate this, but he needs his beauty rest.

It's the fourth quarter now, and Tebow has only run the ball twice for 11 yards. This is not very Tebow-like, but I'm not docking him Teblow points for this. While it is well known that Timmy makes up for his shoddy passing with his legs, as long as he has a shitty passing day but still wins, the Teblowing is in effect. I don't care if he rode big defensive plays to victory.

The Jets just kicked a field goal, and lead, 13-10. This hurts from a Teblowing standpoint, unless, of course, the Broncos come back. Are come-from-behind victories and last-minute heroics part of Teblwoing? You know it!

Last week I went 1-2. I was right with Houston over Tampa Bay, and wrong with Buffalo over Dallas (way wrong) and with KC over Denver. This week, I'm stayed away from betting for or against Denver, so I can sit back and enjoy some Teblowing. Teblwoing isn't about money, it's about the love of the game.

Frank just walked in, and informed me that he saw the Bronco Cheer-babes on the TV in his room. How conveeeeeeeeeeenient! I considered testing his loyalty to the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders, but I was too in awe of the Bronkettes to get the words out. Tongue-tied, by God.

Timmy just ran for 15 yards on an option play on 2nd and 2 from his own 11. This more than doubles his running total.

Pass complete for 9 yards. There are only five minutes remaining, so Denver needs a game winning drive. On the other hand, this gets him closer to the dreaded 50%.

Three runs, all by Tebow, and the Broncos are over midfield. Win it with your legs, Timmy! That's how you Teblow!

Third and 4 form the 20....Tebow rolls left, tucks it in*, has the first down...he goes all the way! TOUCHDOWN! Thar' she Teblows! The full Teblow is on. Nine out of 20, and a lead. Tim is in the end zone on a knee, visibly praying out loud, about two feet from a video camera.

After a futile Hail Mary from Sanchez, game over for the Jets. Brian Dawkins leads a prayer circle on the field, as he and Tebow hold hands with a bunch of Broncos, and at least one Jet. Shades of Penn State-Nebraska, though without the creepy context...as far as we know.

*I saw the instant replay, and Tebow didn't tuck in the ball in until at least five yards past the line of scrimmage. Look for Cortland Finnegan or some other pint sized corner to knock the ball loose later in the season.

This week I like cincinnati(+7)0ver BALTIMORE. The Ravens may deserve to be favored at home, but why so much? Sure, they're capable of blowing out their opponents, but they're also capable of losing. To Seattle. And Jacksonville. And Tennessee. Cincy, on the other hand, is apparently the most consistent team in the NFL, though the second most consistent team (Green Bay) happens to win more consistently. I can't find the article claiming this, so I can't give you the link to it. The article also said that Baltimore was one of, if not the most inconsistent team in the league. Give me consistent, and give me the points.

Why so much? A.J. Green is injured. Mystery solved. I still like the Bengals to man up and lose by 3. This is a divisional game, last time I checked.

This may be less of a bargain than Cincy, but I love CHICAGO(-3.5)over sandiego. This game opened at 4, so apparently enough people like the Chargers to lower the line, but I am not one of them. The only big weakness for the Bears is their shoddy wide receivers. In theory the Chargers are loaded, but they don't seem to play that way at all. They are going East two time zones as well, though this is a 4:00 game, so at least it's not before their wakey-wakey time, but that may be the nicest thing I can say about them right now. Have I mentioned that San Diego is one of the worst special teams teams in the league? Do I need to remind you about Devin Hester? I could try to find out about the Chargers' pass rush, but I'm feeling lazy, and Chicago has been much better protecting Jay Cutler lately, so I'm not going to bother. If you want to talk yourself out of this pick do your own research.

I think my blood pressure just spiked. I need to calm down.

If you jumped on it early, you could have had NYGIANTS(-3)over philadelphia, but at this point, it looks like you are stuck giving 4.5. I'm not sure I can recommend this, since these teams can both be maddeningly inconsistent, but it looks like Michael Vick isn't playing. I picked this game when it was NYGIANTS(-4)over philadelphia. Sorry for leaving you all behind, though maybe not as sorry as I'll be if the Eagles lose by 3. For some reason, I feel like this game will not be close. Shame and humiliation feel like they are in the cards for one of these teams...maybe next week shame and humiliation for both of them. I haven't even checked the schedule, but the Giants schedule is a bitch the rest of the way.

The Bronco game went just about perfectly for me. Tim was gracious enough to give us an example of Teblowing, demonstrating exactly why we need the term. I would have preferred fewer pass completions, but Timmy was clutch, and many of his incompletions were awful throws. So were many of his completions. His receivers were diving all ofver the place, but even their heroic catches couldn't make him look good. I wonder why the Broncos didn't run him sooner, or more often. Their game plan put the Teblowing in jeopardy, but it all worked out in the end.

If the Raiders lose this week, Denver will be in a tie for first in the AFC West. Maybe a 3 or 4 way tie, but still--a tie for first. Who'da thunkit?

If you think Teblowing is crass and tasteless, wait til I crack on Penn State. Too soon? It's only a matter of time. Laughter is the best medicine...except for Preparation-H.

Knee high boots/The left hand of God

2011-11-08T10:34:00.000-08:00

I was walking down Disney with Black Francis a couple of days ago when I clock a pair of black knee-high boots walking the opposite way. I point them out to Frank (of course) and by extension, point out the woman wearing them. Not bad. Aging reasonably well. Russian, if I had to guess.

Yes ladies, if you want to get noticed, knee high leather boots is one way to pull this off. Not that there aren't drawbacks.

"I can just imagine her, in those boots, standing under a street lamp, with a sax playing in the background," I say.

"Holy shit!"

"What?"

"I just got this image, she's walking along next to a brick wall. There's grafitti on the wall, and after that are shops lit by neon signs, that say 'Checks Cashed,' and 'E-Z Pawn'. Steam rises up from a sewer grate. She has a cigarette, too much makeup, and huge, teased up, can-of-hairspray 80's hair. The cars that drive by are all either taxis or pimpmobiles about 10 years older than her hair. The street reeks of stale urine and Chinese food, maybe some weed."

"Whoa! You got all that from boots, a streetlamp, and a sax?"

"Mostly it was the sax."

Frank has seen the same crappy 80's B movies that I have, where a Tom Berringer clone plays a dirty cop with a stripper girlfriend, balancing his alcoholism and vigilante impulses against his need to keep his detective job within the corrupt NYPD, all while tracking down a serial-killer who targets streetwalkers. The saxophone had invoked all of these memories of pre-Giuliani, crime-ridden New York in one fell swoop.

The saxophone got used enough on movie soundtracks back then that it lives on today as a signature, a certain audio cliche....shorthand for the seamy underbelly of the American metropolis. In a similar vein, pastel sportcoats and no socks are evoked by the Miami Vice Soundtrack...or by crappy Glenn Frey singles. I think some of these had saxophones too, and this is no coincidence.

Sometimes football works this way. When you hear Steelers-Ravens, you expect these two teams to try to kill each other. Somebody's going to the hospital, and somebody's going to pay a fine. Maybe alot of somebodys. The Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith lightning bolt that won the game for the Ravens changed nothing.

Of course, sometimes our memories of past glory fool us. At the beginning of the season it looked as though the Pittsburgh defense was becoming old and slow. Whether or not this is true, at this point we can safely say that the Steelers are one of the few teams left in the league that is willing to man up, clock somebody, and pay a fine or two if that's what it takes to win. In fact, I think they'd rather do that rather than win, if they had to choose. If you suspect that I admire this, you are probably on to something.

Of course, the Ravens are one of the other teams we can say this about, and I wasn't sorry to see them win, despite my PITTSBURGH(-3.5)over baltimore pick, which I was winning until the final :08 or so.

In the game I was too scared to pick, Denver beat Oakland, 38-24, keeping the "Does Tim Tebow suck, or not?" debate alive for at least another week. Of course, this is one more phony debate concocted by the sports media to keep us consuming their nonsense 24/7, but it's one that I've enjoyed, so far. I'm a little bit less crazy about the debate as to whether "Tebowing" is an attack on Timmy's religion. I'm inclined to agree with Detroit defensve end Cliff Avril, who said that if you wear your religion on your sleeve, Ndamakong Suh will try to rip your arm off, beat you with it, then drive over to Roger Goodell's house with the arm on ice in the trunk of his Chrysler, and sign Roger a $75,000 check with your arterial blood.

That's not what he said? Oh.

Tim Tebow is the complete opposite of the saxophone. Much of the animosity towards him right now is his uncanny ability to defy easy categorization. He seems crummy most of the time, yet he manages to win, at least some of the time, which is more than it seems like he ought to.

If Tebow were still in college, we wouldn't have such a hard time categorizing him. This goes double for high school. What Tebow does is normal there. Running quarterbacks are everywhere...until you get to the pros. It's just not supposed to be possible to win in the NFL with his skill set. He's like some new music that the old folks don't get. And he makes it a pain in the ass to handicap games.

In the other games I picked last week, BUFFALO(-1.5) lost to the Jets, 27-11, san francisco(-3.5) beat WASHINGTON, 19-11, tampa bay(+8) lost and failed to cover at NEW ORLEANS, 27-16. Watching that game I found out that the Bucs' run defense is horrible. The nygiants(+9) won outright at NEW ENGLAND, 24-20, and green bay(-4) beat SAN DIEGO, 45-38. The Chargers had to score late to get a final score this close. chicago(+7) beat PHILADELPHIA, 26-20, so I went 4-3. I'll take it.

We have some prime examples in this mix of teams who used to play defense, but at this point must resort to scoring 35-40 per game, taking advantage of rules protecting quarterbacks and receivers going over the middle. The Pats paid the price for this approach for the second week in a row, while the Packers got away with it to the tune of 8-0. I consider it nearly a moral imperative to root against teams who don't play defense, but I won't be too surprised if the Packers manage to get away with it. They've got one sick passing game.

Is the bloom off Buffalo's proverbial rose? They got their asses kicked by the Jets at home last week, and I'm not too optimistic about their chances in Dallas. But six points? I think I have to take buffalo(+6)over DALLAS, though I haven't decided yet. I was hoping for a move to seven, but the line is down to 5.5. I still like Buffalo +5.5...it's not as though Dallas has been blowing anybody out. Most of their games are pretty close. This game gives me a chance to ask Frank if Ryan Fitzpatrick is Tony Romo with a beard, or it did until Fitz shaved. Maybe he has a Samson complex. This question will be much more fun to ask if the Bills win. Maybe if they do he'll start another beard. Lets do this. buffalo(+5.5)over DALLAS.

I feel more strongly about houston(-3) over TAMPA BAY. This feels a bit like a trap game, but the Bucs just showed that they were incapable of stopping the run, vs. Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory. Arian Foster and Ben Tate could tear the Bucs a new asshole, then run through it for 25 yards a pop. I'm still concerned that the Texan defense might be a fraud, but I don't feel like this is the week we find out.

Chicago's win at Philly has moved the line vs. the visiting Lions from Bears by 1 to bears by 3, and I think this is fair. Detroit's running game has disappeared since the last time these two played, and the Bears seem to have figured out how to protect Jay Cutler since then as well. I like the Lions chances to get to Cutler a bit more than Philly's, but I also like Matt Forte's chances of going off quite a bit, since Frank Gore and Michael Turner have exposed some holes in Detroit's defense. You could hope for some stupidity from Mike Martz, but right now things are going pretty well for the Bears, and he probably deserves some of the credit. I'm not betting this game, and as a Lions fan, I consider my advice biased and suspect, but this game deserves mentioning, so there you go.

Has Miami's surprise win at Kansas City earned them some respect? The 1-7 Dolphins are favored by 4 at home (where they haven't won in about a year and a half) over Washington. I suppose this line is at least half DISrespect for the Redskins. Four seems a bit generous, and it seems crazy to bet games like this, but if I did it would probably be on the 'Fins.

Speaking of crazy, do you want to give three points vs. Tim Tebow? KC is, fresh off their 27-3 drubbing at the hands of the aforementioned Dolphins. If anything would lead to some value on the Chiefs, that would be it, so maybe KANSASCITY(-3)over denver is worth a shot. You'd think that the Arrowhead crowd would be loud enough to get Tebow to make some mistakes, but something tells me he'll just pull the ball down and run it if he couldn't audible, and this is Timmy at his most dangerous.

In the end, I think I take the motivation through humiliation that the Chiefs earned the hard way. It doesn't hurt that they have a better defense, and a great home field advantage, but my feeling is they will take Denver far more seriously this week than they took Miami last week. Am I still scared to fade Tebow? Sure, but that doesn't mean it's not the right play.

I almost forgot. Apparently you can bet on who will be the next lucky guy to bone Kim Kardashian. Here are the odds, since you need to know. I'm not sure what exactly constitutes a win, though, so buyer beware.

Blake Griffin (+500) 82 games = more exposure for reality stars...too bad there's no NBA season.

Kanye West (+800)

Reggie Bush (+1,000) Does his recently improved play make him more or less likely to get with Kim?

Ryan Reynolds (+1,000)

Usher (+1,200)

Derek Jeter (+1,400) His body count rivals his hit count.

Chargers mojo deprived

2011-10-31T22:22:00.000-07:00

Sometime between the Cowboys' atrocious loss to the Eagles and the Halloween Monday Night game, I asked Black Francis if he'd rather see San Diego implode during the regular season and somehow lose their playoff spot to the Chiefs or Raiders, or see them cruise to a two seed, then choke away their home field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.

Frank mumbled back something incoherent as he choked down some Tribulus and asked me if I wanted any. I think he was still recovering from the latest Dallas debacle.

"It'll help your mojo, bro!"

Who could pass that up? The powdered capsules were thrown into a package of supplements Frank had mail-ordered. When you order enough protein, creatine, HGH, etc, male-enhancement is just part of the, er...package. I digress.

Why do I hate the Chargers? Hate is too strong of a word, but I must admit I enjoy watching them lose. There is something comforting about choke-artists...as long as you aren't rooting for them. I may not be able to set my watch to the Charger choke, but I know it's coming. Whether they die by a thousand tiny cuts (or 7 to 9 regular season losses, see 2010, 2005) or in a home playoff game shocker (2009, 2006, 2004), ultimately their fate is total humiliation.* In the name of full disclosure, San Diego managed to win two playoff games in 2007, and one more in 2008... before losing to the unbeaten Pats, and the Super Bowl bound Steelers. I guess not total humiliation.

Monday's 23-20 OT loss to the Chiefs may not indicate what is in store for the Chargers the rest of the season (doom and disappointment), but it sure feels that way. San Diego has been shaky all year. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert take turns getting hurt, tight end Antonio Gates has missed most of the season, and quarterback Phillip Rivers is shooting for some kind of interception record. This game just further exposed the shakiness. Have I mentioned that Norv Turner is still their head coach? Norv Turner is still their head coach.

In all likelihood, the Chargers probably fall somewhere in between my two scenarios, limping to a 10-6 record and a 3 or 4 seed. At that point, I'd probably pick them to lose to the Ravens or Steelers, but possibly beat the Jets or Bills...or Bengals. If they're still hanging around the next week, I'll almost certainly pick against them, unless they give me some really good reasons not to.

I probably wouldn't have had as much fun rooting against the Chargers were I not holed up in a country where bettting on sports is illegal. (Afghanistan, not America.) If I'd been in the U.S., where sports betting is illegal, but is also considerably easier to do, I'd probably have some $$ on San Diego to win their division, since the AFC West has been notoriously weak, and since they seemed like a shoe-in.

On the other hand, that wouldn't have stopped me from betting CHIEFS(+3)over chargers, so maybe I'd have had even more fun. At least it would have made up for cowboys(+3.5)over EAGLES. That game didn't go quite as well. I was much closer to going 0-2 than 2-0 this week. Of course, if I was somewhere it was easier to gamble, I would have had more than two picks. It's much harder to stay motivated when you can't bet.

All this is to say that I am pretty rusty right now, and that you probably shouldn't take my gambling advice, aside from the part where I tell you not to take my gambling advice. Having said that, here is my week nine gambling advice. Recommendations are in bold print.

I'm way more excited about Denver at Oakland than I should be. The Broncos are terrible, and the Raiders have semi-retired Carson Palmer at quarterback and recently injured Daren McFadden at running back. This makes the game about impossible to handicap, despite which I managed to guess the pointspread within one point. The line is Oakland(-7) and I guessed (-6). My initial assumtion was that this meant McFadden would play, but it's possible that Vegas just thinks Tim Tebow sucks that badly.

Last week the press tried to hype Lions at Broncos as good (the genuflecting Tim Tebow) vs. evil (dirty Ndamakong Suh). This is silly, but as a long-suffering Lions fan, I relish the prospect of the Lions as evil, intimidating bullies, rather than perrennial doormats. Detroit's evil antics vs. Denver included repeated sacks of Tebow, at least one of which was followed by a "Tebow." Ever since Timmy was seen on the ground praying for an accurate field goal attempt at the end of the Dolphin game, random, inexplicable prayer has been dubbed a "Tebow," and the Lions made sure to mix this into their sack celebrations.

Thankfully, the Lions have a bye this week, so you don't need to listen to me prattle on about them...for now. Not that I shouldn't celebrate a couple of winning months, after five decades of futility or anything, but this week the Broncos go to Oakland, and the Raiders are a slam dunk if the media want to keep this good vs. evil thing alive. They pretty much had a monopoly on evil for a while.

The other big storyline is the debate between those who think Tebow sucks, and those who don't watch the games. I feel like the Broncos need to win this one to keep the debate alive. Or lose by less than 38 points.

Of course, there are some things Timmy does quite well, like running...or praying...sometimes even winning, and rather dramatically at that. These just aren't typical QB measurables, like throwing for big yards and a high completion percentage.

You'll hear people talk about a quarterback's intangibles when they can't figure out how he wins, despite his evident lack of talent. I think we need another word for Timmy, though. How about "anti-tangibles"? Anti-tangibles would be what helps Timmy win despite his very tangible shortcomings. Those things we can put our finger on, like his incredibly slow wind up, his terrible mechanics, and his inaccuracy. If you'd like another example, I think Big Ben had some anti-tangibles going in that Super Bowl win over the Seahawks. Check his stat line from that game if you don't remember watching it.

Anyway, I'm too scared to bet this game if I could, but I think the NFL will be happier if Tebow wins. Not that they would rig games or anything.... broncos(+8)over OAKLAND (yeah, the line moved in the last bit.) Don't bet this game, especially if you don't know who is playing for the Raiders, but not even God gives Tim Tebow 8 points.

What am I saying? Of course he does...especially if Darren McFadden plays. Lets move on.

BUFFALO(-1.5)over nyjets. I probably would bet this one, though off a bye Rex Ryan may have some interesting wrinkles for his team. The Jets probably should be a better team than the Bills, but are they right now? Wagers on this week's games aren't settled according to who will be better seven months from now. Just figure out who is better now, or maybe seven days from now.

san francisco(-3.5)over WASHINGTON. Last year everyone kept pointing at the 'Niners as the talented team who could break out at any time. This year they are breaking out. Hopefully you didn't blow too much betting against them last year.

On the other hand, living in the moment when gambling has it's limitations as well. Can you believe the Redskins were the money favorite to win the NFC East within the last month? Me neither. Their ultimate collapse is inherently more inevitable, because it will happen much sooner--in a given year, that is. This year it's already happening.

Are the Redskins so bad they get points at home from West Coast teams? Um...pretty much!

PITTSBURGH(-3.5)over baltimore. The Ravens took it upon themselves to run up the score on the Steelers opening day. The betting public loves Pittsburgh to dominate the rematch, and so do I, though if you wanted to argue that the Steelers will have a big letdown after a tough win over the Patriots, I might buy it....No I wouldn't. This is Steelers-Ravens. Both of these teams know they will be in a dogfight.

tampa bay(+8)over NEW ORLEANS The Bucs have played the Saints tough of late, and New Orleans can play some pretty crappy games for such a good team. Their loss to the Rams last week makes me more inclined to understand how they were seven point dogs to the Colts back in the Super Bowl, a line I strongly disagreed with at the time. Find out if LGBT is healthy though before you risk any coin.**

nygiants(+9)over NEWENGLAND. The Pats tend to torch whoever they play coming off a loss, but I can't give points like that when my defense is as bad as the Pats. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham will run wild in the Pat secondary. I'd take my chances on the Giants here. You'll probably want to know Ahmad Bradshaw's health before you bet this one though.

green bay(-4)over SAN DIEGO. As long as the Chargers continue to play like shit, this line is reasonable. And I wouldn't feel right taking the Chargers this soon after talking all that trash. Not when I can ride their losing streak to the bottom.

On the other hand, San Diego is capable of staying with a team like the Packers (their talent, after all, is what makes their ultimate failures so enticing and epic), and the Packers have a history of letting teams back into game. I don't like to pick teams based on potential, though.

chicago(+7)over PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are among the most schizoid teams in the league right now. I have no idea if they will come to play, or not. I don't think the Eagles can really stop Matt Forte, but I expect they will beat the crap out of Jay Cutler, and this could lead to mistakes. Mistakes worse than dumping Kristen Cavallari? Perhaps. Mistakes worse than taking her back? Probably. In fact, I recommend you tread extremely lightly when even considering betting a quarterback with a reality show girlfriend. QB needs a clear head. That means no reality skanks, and no Tribulus, at least not without a doctor's supervision.

*Black Francis enjoys the Chargers humiliation because it makes him feel better about being a Cowboys fan.

**LaGarrette Blount, not Lesbian-Gay-Bisexual and Transgender. If BenJarvis Green-Ellis can be BJGE, or the Law Firm, Blount needs a catchy nickname too. As for it being gay-friendly, why the hell not? Welcome to the 21st Century.

I just miss pick'em week 3 crown

2011-09-26T18:38:00.000-07:00

I didn't pick any games vs. the spread this week, mainly because my Chargers and Bears picks last week went wrong.

On the other hand, I'm tied for first in the pick'em pool I'm in, with the $$ riding on the outcome of the Washington at Dallas Monday night. If Dallas wins, and 40 or more points are scored, I win the whole pool. Right now it is 6-6 with the first half winding down, and I need some touchdowns. The guy I'm tied with & I both have Dallas for this game. The tiebreaker is the total, and I have 45 while he went 34, so if Dallas wins and the score is 39 or less, he wins. If it's 40 or more, the score is closer to 45, and I win the whole thing.

It's 9-9 at the half.

If Dallas loses, me and the guy I'm tied with fall back into a 5-way tie with three guys who took the Redskins. One of them has the total at 47, one at 38, and Joe Holcombe, who ran one of the fantasy leagues I played in last year, has 45, same as me. In that case, 47 or more goes to one guy, 46 puts three of us in a tie, 45 down to 42 ties me and Joe, and 41 or less goes to the other guy.

Dallas won, 18-16. The other guy hit the number exactly. Pretty damn pathetic offensive performance from both teams. I think there's a decent chance the Lions will be favored next week at Dallas. The Cowboys looked like shit.

The spread moved down from 6.5 or so to 3.5 by game time. If I was able to bet I would have been all over 'Skins(+6.5) vs. the banged up Cowboys.

Week two lines

2011-09-13T10:14:00.000-07:00

The Week 2 lines are out. Black Francis and I guessed the lines yesterday. Lets see how we did.

kansas city at DETROIT(-9)--I said 3.5, Frank said 3. I think Vegas is overrating week 1, while we may be weighing KC's playoff berth last year.

oakland at BUFFALO(-3.5)--I said 3, Frank said Oakland by 3--are the Bills being taken seriously now? I'm not used to this. Frank's really not used to this.

tampa bay at MINNESOTA(-3)--I said 2.5, Frank said 1.5. I can live with being close. Losing to the Chargers trumps losing to the Lions.

chicago at NEW ORLEANS(-7) pretty big dog for a team that just embarrassed the Falcons. I said 4.5, Frank said 3.5. I think the Bears hate has officially gone too far.

baltimore at TENNESSEE(+6) I said 5, Frank said 4, Bill Simmons said 3.5, Cousin Sal said 4.5. So I was closest. Otherwise, I have no opinion...yet.

cleveland at INDIANAPOLIS(+2.5) I said Browns by 3, Frank Browns by 1, Bill and Sal both went Colts by 3. Is Bill off the Browns bandwagon already? Maybe he should be. I wasn't on it, but maybe I should move even further from it. Maybe I should run away screaming.

seahawks at PITTSBURGH(-14.5) We were way low on this: Frank 4.5, me 9, Bill & Sal both 11.5. Steelers probably bounce back, but I still think I'm starting Matthew Stafford over

Big Ben. Does this mean I think the KC Dis worse than Seattle's? More like I'm not trying to time Ben's un-suck.

arizona at WASHINGTON(-4?) This line has moved from 2.5 to 4.5, depending on where you look. Frank & I both said 3, Bill & Sal both said 3.5. I think I expected the Cards to get love they don't deserve. West teams going east suck, and the last place team in the NFC East could be better than the NFC West champ. I'd probably pay give 4, I just thought the line would be lower. I can't believe I've used this much space on this riveting matchup.

green bay at CAROLINA(10.5-9.5) THis line is coming down, towards my pick of 7, though it woun't get that far. Sal went 12.5, Frank went 9, and Bill went 8.5. About our average, and Frank is closest.

dallas at SAN FRANCISCO(+3) We were all dialed in on the excessive Dallas love, tempered by the Jets loss, vs. the bizarre SF love from last year, which may linger on due to new hire Jim Harbaugh, and their victory over the mighty Seahawks. Frank went 2, Bill and Sal went 3.5, and I got one right, with 3. Now I'm trying to figure out how the Cowboys blow this game.

san diego at NEW ENGLAND(-7) This opened at 6.5. I'm not convinced that the Pats pass defense is good enough to win by 7+. I'd defenitely rather take the dog in what looks like a shootout. On the other hand, San Diego usually figures out a way to start out 2-4, and they have to travel east (though for a 4:00 game you'll note) so they are a little bit scary to take. I had NE by 4, Frank 4.5, while Bill & Sal were dialed in at 7.

houston at MIAMI(+3) this opened at 1.5, and moved through my guess of two. Frank had Miami by 3, whie Bill and Sal had Houston by 3.5 and 1.5 respectively. I'm thinking about taking the 'Fins. Not sure I buy the "most improved defense" Texan hype.

cincinnati at DENVER(-3.5) Apparently this opened at 5.5, which seems ridiculous to me. #.5 I'll buy. I said 4, Frank 3, Bill 3, Sal 5.

philadelphia at ATLANTA(+2.5) I had ATL by 2.5, Frank had Philly by 3, Bill & Sal had PHI by 1 and 1.5. Am I nuts to consider the Falcons here?

st louis at NYGIANTS(-6) I said 3.5, Frank 3, Bill said 3.5, and Sal said 6. With the STL injuries I can't disagree too strongly.

So who do I like? So far it's chicago(+6.5)over NEW ORLEANS, and

san diego(+7)over NEW ENGLAND. I may take miami(+3)over HOUSTON too. Or maybe INDY(+2.5)over cleveland .

I also love michigan state(+4.5)over NOTRE DAME. What's ND done to deserve this kind of respect? Fuck Notre Dame.

I go 3-2

2011-09-12T19:53:00.000-07:00

I went all dogs in week one, though the local retrograde anti-gambling laws kept me from profiting. Were I in different circumstances, I could have lost with neworleans(+4.5)over GREENBAY, (Packers won, 42-34), and STLOUIS(+3 or 4)over philadelphia, (Eagles won, 31-13), but would have won with carolina(+8)over ARIZONA, (Panthers lost but covered, 28-21), WASHINGTON(+3)over nygiants, 'Skins won, 28-14, and dallas(+6)over NYJETS, Dallas should have won, but blew a 14 point lead, to lose 27-24. I sort of favored the Cowboys at 4.5, but six? SIX???

The Jets just don't score enough to be heavily favored against decent teams. Dallas showed themselves more than capable of losing by close margins last year. I expect the Jets to be favored by too much vs. Jacksonville next week as well. I think I misread the schedule, and guessed

nyj(-9) on the road, but they're at home, so I'm thinking...11?

Will the Cowboy choke job keep them undervalued, or keep the Jets overvalued? We'll see. Way too much love for the 49ers last year, and a new, possibly competent coach in Jim Harbaugh could keep the excessive love going. Ultimately the 'Niner love will hinge on our impressions of the Cardinails and Kevin Kolb, and our belief in Sam Bradford, with or without Steven Jackson, who left with a strained quad after two carries, the first of which went for 48 yards and a score.

My ESPN Fantasy Team went off yesterday, despite my benching Ray Rice (31 points) and Steve Smith adding 40 more on my bench. Mike Tolbert scored 3 TDs and actually outscored Rice, while Matthew Stafford, who I started over Ben Roethlisberger, got 300+ passing yards and 3 TD passes, good for 23 points, while Big Ben earned a big donut on my bench, thanks to three picks and two fumbles. (Turnovers are good for -2 points each in our scoring, and sacks get you -1. If I'd thought more about the Steelers offensive line, I may not have drafted the alleged rapist.

Lions grab first win, 64 fantasy points

2011-09-11T12:33:00.001-07:00

The Cowboys line is up to dallas(+6)NYJETS, which is how I would play it, were I in a country where gambling is legal. I asked one of our interpreters if trannys were legal in Afghanistan, and it turns out they aren't either.

But yeah, Dallas lost a lot of games last year, but most of them were pretty damn close. Unless the Jets completely dominate, I don't see them winning by that much. +6 seems ludicrous to me.

On the other hand, Black Francis has Romo, Austin and Witten going against me in fantasy, so I suppose I end up pulling for the Jets, since I can't lay any green the other way. Or trannys, speaking of the other way...

I'd rather not jinx myself, but right now I'm projected to score a league high 181, and win by 30+, with my best player on the bench. Ray Rice was riding a 4 game suck streak vs. the Steelers, but right now he has 107 yards rushing, four catches for 42 yards, and two TDs, so I guess that streak is over. Too bad he's on my bench.

On the other hand, I benched Ben Roethlisberger for Matthew Stafford, and so far that has gotten me 23 more points than I would have had with Big Ben, so arguably my bold moves will work out to a wash, depending on what Mike Tolbert gets me in the 4:00 game.

The Ravens have been having their way with the Steelers all day, and are about to close out a 35-7 victory. The Lions are down to the 2:00 warning with a 27-13 lead at Tampa Bay, though the Bucs are threatening.

Ugh. Freeman to Mike Williams on 4th and goal from the five, and the Bucs are within a score. Calvin Johnson recovered the ensuing onside kick, but the Lions do absolutely nothing with their posession (other than make TB burn timeouts) and now the Bucs have the ball, with 1:07 and 80 yards between them and overtime.

:16 to go, and the Bucs are around midfield.

Not sure how it ended, but the Lions held on. I'm going to bed.

Saints Fudge getting Packed

2011-09-08T20:13:00.000-07:00

Were I not in a country where betting on sports was illegal, (Afghanistan, not the US) I would have liked to have taken neworleans(+4.5)over GREENBAY. At the moment, the Packers are up 42-27 however. Apparently the Taliban are saving me from myself. In the pigskin pickem I'm playing, I have the Packers, but that's hardly interesting. How often are you going to pick the Pack to lose in Lambeau?

The other games I may be relieved not to have bet include WASHINGTON(+3)over nygiants, STLOUIS(+4)over philadelphia, and carolina(+8)over ARIZONA...WASH is down to +2.5. That may be enough to scare me off the 'Skins.

Celtics and my pocketbook are doomed

2011-05-07T14:28:00.000-07:00

It's Kentucky Derby time, and I have a little chunk down on Twice the Appeal at 20/1, and a smaller chunk on Stay Thirsty, also at 20/1. Twice the Appeal is Calvin Burrell's steed this year, and may have become the wiseguy horse for this year. Stay Thirsty is presumably named after the wildly popular Dos Equis ad campaign. If not, I still expect that most of the action on this horse has been inspired by the "Most Interesting Man in the World."

If I'm reading the racing form correctly, Twice the Appeal is now half the longshot, at 10/1, and Stay Thirsty has not stayed 20/1, but dropped to 16/1.

The biggest mover looks like Pants on Fire, also opening at 20/1, now down to 7/1. I don't know if the action has anything to do with the fact that the horse has a female jockey, but it may.

Meanwhile, once the race is over, I'm meeting Black Francis at his lair, aka Pluckers, to watch Pacquiao-Mosley. Pacquiao is a 1/8 favorite, Mosley a 5/1 dog. I'm not betting it.

I'm not betting the NBA today either. The last two bets I made on NBA games both lost. As for my futures bets on the Lakers and Thunder, one of them is nearly dead, as the Dallas Mavericks hold a 3-0 lead over LA. I also have a substantial bet on the outcome of the Celtics-Heat series, on the...ahem...Celtics. That bet may be in jeopardy as well, though Boston has not yet lost at home. That could change tonight. It feels to me like it will. It just seems fitting that the Lakers and Celtics both implode equally, in twin sweeps. If the Lakers bow out in four, it will feel much different if the Celtics push the Heat to a game seven, even if they amount to the same thing.

Animal Kingdom has won the Kentucky Derby. The horse opened as a 30/1 shot, and moved to a 20/1 shot. Nice payday for somebody.

I haven't bet any individual

Will Lakers continue to suck?

2011-04-19T16:32:00.000-07:00

The NBA playoffs are underway, and with the game twos of several series about to happen, it is time to exercise the zig-zag. I therefore have taken denver(+4.5)over OKLAHOMA CITY, and portland(+4)over DALLAS. I could take LALAKERS(-11.5)over neworleans and ORLANDO(-9)over atlanta, but I'm not crazy about laying big points with teams that are playing like shit. To play the zag, I also would have got a bet down on nyknicks(+6)over BOSTON, but that game is already underway.

I've had a futures bet on the Lakers to win it all since the preseason. I think my confidence has been shaken the most by the Bynum injury scare, and I think second place may go to game one of this series. Chris Paul just embarrassed these guys. While I still don't see the Hornets winning this series, it makes me wonder how many other stud players are waiting in the wings to make the Lakers look like shit.

Can a team that looks this shitty win it all?

I also have a bet on the Thunder to win it all at 12/1. This bet is considerably smaller than my bet on LA, but the odds are so much better that I will make more if OKC rises to the top.

Personally I think the Bulls have the best chance to beat the Lakers, but they seem to be having alot of trouble with the Pacers right now. In any case, the odds on Chicago were pretty short.

I lick wounds, take under

2011-04-02T12:30:00.001-07:00

Today are the Final Four matchups. Butler is favored by 3 over Virginia Commonwealth, and Kentucky is favored by 2 over UConn. I'm thinking about betting Kentucky, but at this point I have only bet Butler-VaComm UNDER 134. Of course, if Va Comm finds a way to win, they just may put the total over as well. If you know my recent picks, and you haven't been living under a rock, you know I haven't won much lately.

The one thing everybody can agree on at this point is that Butler can play defense. Yet the total has moved from 133 to 134. Everybody likes to bet the over. Now I'm off to a cigar promotion, a country music show (?!?) and a party that I may leave if I can't talk the host into watching basketball. Busy, busy, busy.

Cue the Banjos

2011-03-25T15:14:00.000-07:00

I'm about to go out drinking & watching hoops with Pennsyltucky Dave. I have $$ on FloridaState(-4)over Virginia Commonwealth, and Ohio State(-6)over Kentucky. OSU opened as a 5.5 point favorite, and is now (one hour before gametime) a 6.5 point favorite. I'm guessing that Dave will root for the Buckeyes because they are Big 10, and because I might make redneck jokes about him if he roots for Kentucky.

Really he probably doesn't care now that Penn State & Villanova are out.

VCU & FSU were probably among the most impressive teams last round. VaComm seemed unstoppable, while FlaSt seemed impregnable. Something's gotta give.

To parlay, or not to parlay

2011-03-20T09:59:00.000-07:00

I managed to go 2-1 Friday on my first half bets. I lost with Kansas(-13)33, BU 29, but won with North Carolina(-9.5)53, Long Island 42, and Syracuse(-7)38, Indiana State 30. I caught a bit of UNC in the first half, and at the time it looked like I would lose that one as well. What I caught of the Syracuse game made me think they were firmly in control, but they barely covered. Kansas took over in the second half and won by 19, still shy of the 23 they were favored by.

Chad Millman's wiseguys recommended Washington(+3.5)over North Carolina, and this morning the line had moved to UW(+5), but I waited too long. Too bad. The Huskies lead at the half, 45-44.

I've parlayed the Purdue and Kansas moneylines, which pays a little worse than 1/2. Hopefully we don't get any surprises from Virginia Commonwealth or Illinois.

Today's wiseguy experts seem to like to quote alot of past history of what the various seeds have done in the past. I'm not crazy about this approach, since these may not indicate anything useful for today's games. After all, how much did we hear about how badly the selection committee seeded the tournament? I suspect you can trust the stats about one seeds beating up on eights and nines. Beyond that, I don't know that two-seeds being 23-16 vs. 10-seeds indicates much about Notre Dame(-5) vs. Florida State.

On the other hand, Florida State's win over Texas A&M was low scoring enough that I'm tempted to take UNDER 130 for ND v FSU. I also like the idea of parlaying Florida State and the under, but while this makes sense, these bets never seem to work out for me. That's why I'm taking Florida State(+5)over Notre Dame, and FSU-ND UNDER 130 instead. No parlay, just two seperate bets instead. If Notre Dame is as overachieving and underathletic as I keep hearing, they should be ripe fruit for an athletic, defense-minded team like Florida State.

Half assed wagers

2011-03-18T11:44:00.000-07:00

I went 1-2 yesterday, as Utah State held on to lose by 5, and Michigan State roared back to turn a blowout into a respectable two point loss.

Today the top seeds play, and I've adjusted my strategy. I'm betting first half lines in mismatch games, with the idea that the big teams can jump out to early leads, but may blow these leads when they play their subs in the 2nd halves. On that note, I have Kansas(-13)over BU,

North Carolina(-9.5)over Long Island, and Syracuse(-7)over Indiana State. All these are first half lines. The full game lines for these games are KU(-23), UNC(-17.5), and

Syracuse(-12.5).

I thought about taking Duke as well, but their first half line (14) seems a bit heavy relative to the game line...or does it? It's about the same as KU...and Duke is up 28-16, with 6 minutes left in the first half.

None of my games have happened yet, but it looks like I could have followed the same strategy with Ohio State and Duke and been successful. Hopefully the games I actually bet will do as well.

Spiders Man Up

2011-03-17T14:24:00.000-07:00

I caught about half of the CBS bracket seedings last Sunday. The proceedings were wedged between 30 second chunks of condescending surliness from the Dodge guy with the deep voice and the shitty attitude. Unfortunately I've been busy enough that I never managed to make out a bracket, especially with the four extra games sneaking up on me on Wednesday night. What a load of crap. Way to dilute your product, CBS.

Speaking of loads of crap, and Dodge, I just saw a Dodge ad where Dodge has their own version of the bat signal. How juvenile. Anyway, while I haven't done a bracket, I have bet on some games, and one of them is already at halftime, so...

Richmond(+3)over Vanderbilt. What little research I've done indicates that this game is a tossup. Richmond was good last year. At halftime Richmond actually trailed by exactly three, but now they are down six, 48-42, 15 minutes to go.

Utah State(+3)over Kansas State. 12 vs. 5. Kansas State is getting screwed here. Utah State should be higher than a 12 seed. Not that KState isn't capable of winning this, but give me the points. Utah State should be seeded higher than Michigan State, for instance. Speaking of which,

Michigan State(-1)over UCLA. Michigan State sucks this year, but they are favored as a 10 seed over a 7 seed, either because the Pac 10 sucks, or because State always seems to make a run in the tournament. State sucks vs. the spread as well, but if they win you at least get a push.

I'm re-listening to Chad Millman on the BS Report, and just found out that Chad, Teddy Covers, and others think Vandy is going to bury Richmond. Oops. On the other hand, Richmond is now up, 55-52...make that it's tied, 55 all.

Michigan State is now favored by 1.5. Hardly a shock that $$ is coming in on the Spartans, despite their dismal season...Richmond is now up, 64-62, four minutes to go. This game need to end, so I can go burn off the beer I'm going to drink later during State-UCLA.

Richmond won, 69-66. Too bad I'm not publishing this until now. Of course, if I had my shit together I wouldn't have bet this game.

Oh yeah. I won my bet on UNC over Duke, but lost my tease on Baylor and the over vs. Texas. Ho-hum.

I pick 'Heels, fade 'Horns

2011-03-05T13:52:00.000-08:00

Last day of the college hoops regular season, and I've taken BAYLOR(+8.5)over texas, OVER 128. Texas had something to play for if Kansas lost, but since the Jayhawks won earlier, the 'Horns have 2nd place in the Big XII locked up regardless of the outcome in Waco tonight. Texas has also lost three of their last four games. Baylor needs to win this game to get to 8-8 in the Big XII, and a win over Texas could be their ticket into the NCAA tournament. Last year the Bears were 3-0 over the Longhorns as well. Of course, last year Texas underachieved, while Baylor overachieved their way to an Elite Eight finish, and this year the tables have turned, so....

Meanwhile, I've taken NORTH CAROLINA(-1)over duke. Accuscore has Duke winning by about two on average, but I'd rather have the home team in a tight game. The two teams have identical 13-2 records in ACC play, so this game will determine the ACC Championship. It's games like these that the truly great teams manage to win on the road. Is Duke great? Maybe. I'm a little more concerned with UNC's mediocre showing last year, but in college things change in a hurry.

Trojans won't stop 'Cats

2011-02-24T16:38:00.000-08:00

I love betting lesser home college hoop teams against superior visiting teams when there is a tight spread. On the other hand, the only team in the West getting any respect this year seems to be Arizona. arizona(pick)over USC.

It's about a half hour to game time, and now 'Zona is favored by one. Do I feel good about this? I got a better price, but this confirms my view that the books knew the public would fade SC. Does this mean SC is the side? I expect to be asleep before this one is over. Fuck the West Coast.

In another game I was considering, but was scared to pull the trigger, West Virginia(+8.5) is hanging with Pittsburgh...or was. It was 31 all a minute ago, but Pitt has opened up a 37-31 lead. If this is where the game gets away from the Mountaineers I'll be glad I stayed away.

Pitt won, 71-58. There you go. Last I checked, Arizona was up, 52-50. A little too close for my taste.

USC won, 65-57. This is why I like these home teams. I really thought Arizona would have them outmatched, though.

I take over on KU-OKState

2011-02-21T17:09:00.000-08:00

I've taken OVER 145 for Kansas-Oklahoma State, a game which has a 17 point line. I don't think I've screwed around with a line that high this year. Not in hoops at least. I've reviewed the scores of the two teams' last five games, and see no reason why the total isn't higher for this game. I haven't kept up with OKState much this year, but last year they were noteworthy for some sick scorer, and for neglecting defense. Whats-his name has probably gone pro at this point, but their defensive liability most likely remains, though their totals are not as high as Kansas.'

I'm watching 'Cuse at 'Nova right now. 'Nova is favored by 3.5, but trails by five right now, 43-38. Villanova is ranked higher at the moment, but 3.5 feels about right, given our collective memory of Syracuse the last couple of years. Villanova plays it's home games at the Wells Fargo Center, an arena built in 1996 that was named the First Union and Wachovia Center until the Real Estate Crisis of 2008 caused these banks to be swallowed up by Wells Fargo. I guessed that something along these lines happened before Wikipedia-ing the Center and finding out for myself.

The Wikipedia page claims that there are two other arenas named after Wells Fargo, in Tempe and Des Moines, but on my way to this page I found a list of Wells Fargo Centers that also included Denver, LA, Miami, Minneapolis, Portland Oregon, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Tampa, as well as a Wells Fargo Center for the arts in Santa Rosa, California.

The Tampa and Portland Centers used to be named for First Union as well. Perhaps they still would be, but First Union was taken over by Wachovia in 2001,before Wachovia took it upon themselves to underwrite enough bad home loans to put themselves out of business.

I don't recall Wachovia buying First Union in 2001, but I remember Wachovia's demise in 2008. I was in Florida with Pennsyltucky Dave, and remember talking shit because the bank that held my mortgage was taking over the bank he had an account with. Trust Americans to boil mergers and acquisitions down to provincial rooting interests, as if Wachovia and Wells Fargo were the Eagles and 49ers. Wachovia's roots are not in Pennsylvania, but in North Carolina, but Dave & I were oblivious to this at the time. I still was until a bit into the second half, when I read Wells Fargo Center on Villanova's floor. I finished Matt Taibbi's Griftopia earlier today, which mentions the above banks in conjunction with the '08 real estate bubble collapse.

Syracuse held on to beat Villanova, a team Pennsyltucky Dave tends to root for

a.) because they are a school in Philadelphia

b.) they are generally successful in hoops, and

c.) Penn State sucks at hoops. Not that this has prevented them from beating Michigan State this year.

Taibbi describes his book as less about finance, and more of a crime story, making it a nice lead in for the Dennis Lehane books that came in the mail today. Hopefully the US Economy won't shrivel up and disappear in A Drink Before the War. Not that this will bring it back or anything.

Kansas leads 17-14, six minutes in. Without doing the math, I like my chances.

After doing the math, this works out to 206 points. I imagine it will slow down sometime in the next 34 minutes. I gotta pee.

I peed. And ran five miles. Kansas won 92-65, beating the OVER by 12 points. Yay.

K-KSt ^ 145

2011-02-14T18:04:00.000-08:00

I've taken OVER 145 for Kansas at Kansas State. This total opened at 147.5, according to covers.com, and at game time anything from 144 to 146 can be found. After the game I'm going streaking through the quad. Who's coming with me???

KState won, but more importantly, they won 84-68. OVER. WORD.

Iowa Sucks, I fear getting burned

2011-02-13T14:05:00.001-08:00

I've taken minnesota(-1)over IOWA. Total opposite of the kind of bet I look for, but I am steadfast in my belief that the Hawkeyes SUCK.

Considered taking BOSTON(+3)over miami, but I've been so weak on NBA games that I shyed away. This game opened at Boston(+1) and Heat $$ pushed it to 3... Similarly, Iowa opened at (-1), but bodog waited to put up a number, so I got stuck with the Gophers(-1).

..................................................................................................................

Minnesota won, 62-45. Before game time, the line moved to minnesota(-2). I guess I wasn't alone. If you're keeping track, I titled this post before the game. Not because I knew Iowa would get killed, but because I know they suck. And yes, I'm aware they beat Michigan State a couple of weeks ago. We suck too. Tom Izzo may need to try to win the Big 10 Tournament this year. That could be our only way in to the dance.

Badgers game goes OVER

2011-02-12T10:05:00.000-08:00

I'm pretty much a one-trick pony when it comes to betting college hoops (and pro-hoops, for that matter), and while that trick hasn't served me well this year, I'm giving it a shot today.

Now that football is done, what choice do I have?

CLEMSON(-1)over north carolina, VANDERBILT(-1)over kentucky. That trick, of course, is betting the unranked or lower ranked home favorite over the higher ranked road dog. The interesting thing about these games (for me, at least) is that both of these lines moved after I bet them. Clemson closed favored by 1.5, while the other line flipped to kentucky(-1). I've tripled up on Vandy, with two units of VANDERBILT(+1)over kentucky.

Kentucky jumped out to a lead of 17-11 or so, whereupon I proceeded to take a massive dump. When I returned, Vandy was down one, and right now they are up 38-35 with 3 to go in the first half. Apparently if I'd taken a massive dump during the Super Bowl Pittsburgh would have won. Right now UNC leads Clemson, 24-20.

I've parlayed WISCONSIN(-1)over ohio state, UNDER 125. While Wisconsin is always deliberate on offense, leading to some really low scores, I expect them to try even harder to shorten the game against the unbeaten, top ranked Buckeyes. If the Badgers are successful,I expect them to impose their will enough to keep the score down.

While the line for this game did not move in the hour or so leading up to game time, the vig moved slightly, making a parlay paying 2.5/1 pay 2.58/1. I also paid a little extra to move the line from 1.5 to 1. WIS(-1.5)/UNDER 125 paid 2.6/1.

Right now Wisconsin leads, 12-6, and my concern is that the game could go over, since it turns out that the Badgers have a shit-hot 3 point shooter who I was previously unaware of. Not only can he drain 3s, they don't seem to mind if he takes one at the front end...

9:19 to go in the first, and it's 13-11, Wisconsin. Bad for the Badgers, good for the UNDER.

I took BOSTON(-2)over lalakers Thursday night. I'm not sure if Laker desperation in not beating anyone good all season was factored in, or if LA just gets more action, but I thought 3, 3.5 made more sense. The Lakers won by 6, and it wasn't that close. Shows what I know.

UNC has held on to beat Clemson, 64-62. Vandy beat Kentucky, 81-77, enough to put me up for the day, despite OSU taking over with a 13 point lead with 12 minutes to play, and enough points to make the over likely if Wisconsin finds a way to come back. I'll take it.

Wisconsin has scored 13 straight, knotting it at 47 all. Holy shit.

49-49, and the scoring has slowed just enough to give the under a chance.

60-55 Wisconsin, 4:17 left. This looks like it's going over. 62-55. There's no way these teams don't get 9 more points.

Wisconsin won, but it went over. Lets see if I can refrain from blowing my modest winnings later on today.

False Slim Shady stands up

2011-02-02T17:46:00.000-08:00

Covers.com apparently got hoodwinked by some cat claiming to be Fezzik. They did a story on him, then published a retraction today. Here are both:

LAS VEGAS – Since you are reading this story, the chances are just about 100 percent that you would chuck it all and trade places with Steve Fezzik.

With a bankroll heavy with hundred dollar bills, the energy of a 17-year-old boy on prom night and knowledge of sports and wagering that only a few in this business will ever realize, Fezzik prowls the Las Vegas sportsbooks and offshores for bargains.

Some days it’s less and some days it’s more, but Fezzik estimates that he wagers about $60,000 a day. The event is irrelevant – it can be anything from an obscure Arena League game to the Super Bowl. Money is money, and as long as more comes in than goes out, what’s the dif?

Fezzik says that he wagers a lot of his own money, plus money pooled from a group of betting partners. His bankroll has been given two huge shots of adrenaline over the past two years. He won the Las Vegas Hilton NFL Supercontest twice in a row, which bumped his savings account up by more than $406,000. Picking ATS, Fezzik hit on 61 percent of his selections (going 52-29-3) in 2010. Not quite the same as hitting Power Ball twice in the same year, but making hundreds of other bettors eat your dust is great for the ego.

Like some others in Las Vegas, Fezzik didn’t start out in school thinking that he would put food on the table by trying to outsmart oddsmakers. He grew up in Ohio, graduated from Northwestern University and made a living crunching numbers for an insurance company before experiencing his what-the-hell-am-I-doing-here moment. Next stop was Las Vegas.

Like most sharps, Fezzik’s daily meals include well-cooked squares. Four years ago the public hammered No. 1 seed Connecticut hard when the Huskies were giving eight points to unheralded George Mason in their NCAA Tournament game. Fezzik opened up his wallet, went the other way and cashed when George Mason – clearly on a once-in-two-lifetimes run at the time – won the game outright in overtime. Connecticut, he said to a reporter at the time, was a “classic donkey play” and the smart money was on the other side.

Despite his startling success in the Hilton ATS contest, Fezzik claims that he doesn’t spend much time analyzing the strengths and weaknesses on teams, preferring to utilize his time trying to find errors in the betting line or totals. Most bettors overlook second-half wagering. Not Fezzik.

And unlike some pro gamblers, Fezzik doesn’t turn up his nose at prop bets that dot the betting landscape during Super Bowl week. He recalls a big payout in 2003, cashing on a prop which said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would punt more times than the Oakland Raiders (they each punted five times).

With the biggest betting day of the year on the horizon, Covers.com asked Fezzik several questions about his business:

1. You bet on different sports. How do you keep track? How many hours a day do to study/crunch numbers?

It can be difficult, but with websites like Covers.com, a lot of the work is already done for you. I'm looking at lines and researching numbers all day long. I do this 24/7, so there is rarely a time I stop crunching numbers. I'd say realistically 14 hours a day.

2. Best one-week run ever? Worst?

I've had some really great weeks and some not-so-good ones, but just recently started tracking my plays. I had a great week last week (early January) going 17-6 but couldn't even tell you my best week ever. Numbers never meant much because the bottom line is always did I make a profit or did I not. If I go 20-0 one week - great. But the next week, that means nothing to me.

3. Do you ever watch the games?

I watch a lot of football games and catch most other sports in the second half. Usually when games start to tip off for the day I start working on next day's games. I don't get a lot of sleep.

4. Is it easier or harder now than when you started betting for a living?

Things today are a lot easier than when I first started. There is a lot more accessible gambling information out there and, with sports betting gaining more popularity every year, things are bound to just get easier. Online sportsbooks have revolutionized the industry as to where now I can place a last-second wager online without having to worry if I can get to the casino in 15 minutes.

5. What is the hardest sport to win at? Easiest? Why?

Hands down I'd have to say baseball is the hardest. As the saying goes, anyone can win "Any Given Sunday" and I find this more true in baseball than any other sport. Baseball is all about value. You will always see big lines on big market teams (Yankees, Red Sox, etc..) because the linesmakers know a lot of squares will take -300, -250 favorites all day. I know a lot of guys who lose their bankrolls in baseball every year. I find football to be the easiest and it's where I've had most my success. I'd say it's the easiest for me because it is my favorite sport.

6. Opinion of in-game betting?

I'm not big into in-game betting. It's a fun thing to do while watching the game but it's hard to win long term doing it. It's more for the casual gambler, just another way for the sportsbook to take your money.

7. Worst beat?

What sticks out recently would be Colts-Titans first game this year. Had Colts -3 and they dominated most the game. The Colts gave up a touchdown as the clock expired and the Colts ended up winning by two.

8. What kind of mistakes do squares often make?

The advice I give to a lot of people is to not base your opinion on what teams did years past. I'll hear things like “The Celtics are 7-0 against them the past seven years.” Trends like this have nothing to do with the game on this day eight years later. Do your research and use good money management and you should be on the plus side more often than not.

Steve Fezzik’s web site is SteveFezzik.com

The only comments on the article are from two guys saying this Fezzik is a fraud. Apparenly they are right.

Covers.com recently published an interview with Las Vegas sports betting legend Steve Fezzik. It was brought to our attention that the person claiming to be Steve Fezzik was not the handicapper but an impostor, who runs a website that poaches Fezzik’s name in an effort to sell betting picks.

Covers.com would like to sincerely apologize to Mr. Fezzik and the staff at LVASports.com as well as our readers for this mistake.

Mr. Fezzik will be doing a real interview, which will be published in the coming weeks. Covers.com will also be putting out a feature exposing these tout websites that fraudulently claim to have a connection to a notable sports bettor or industry personality.

LVASports.com is the only website with a legit affiliation to Mr. Fezzik.

I'm about to check out these sites. Not sure how to change my font back.

Go Hook Yourself

2011-01-22T12:24:00.000-08:00

I have a double tease on KANSAS(-2.5)over texas, OVER 139.5, and KANSAS(-2.5)over texas, UNDER 148.5. I don't necessarily trust Kansas to cover seven points, but I think the 'Horns are fakers who won't be able to keep it within three points. I have also bet minnesota(+2)over MICHIGAN. This is exactly the kind of game I target, except that Michigan sucks, and I can't figure out what they've done to be favored over a 14-4 team.

Sports Guy does Dallas

2011-01-20T18:58:00.000-08:00

Texas is big enough that it makes more sense to measure distance not in miles, but in hours of driving. Dallas is a three hour drive from Fort Hood. If you don't think that's a long way to go for a book signing, you have three hours to change your mind. More if you hit rush hour.

This didn't deter Staff Sgt. Joel Gibson from attending the final stop of The Sports Guy's promotion of the soft-cover edition of "The Book of Basketball," which had hit New York, Washington D.C. and San Francisco before ending in Dallas. While Joel's dedication to his favorite sports writer is impressive, it pales next to his wife's perseverence.

She tagged along on his Quixotic quest despite not completely understanding what she was getting herself into. Joel is originally from East Bridgewater, Massachusets, and Bill Simmons started his writing career on AOL as "The Boston Sports Guy," before ESPN hired him in 2001, so she understood how his Red Sox, Celtic and Pats-centric view of sports would appeal to her like-minded hubby. She put her own twist on the distance traveled. "A Boston sports writer signing books in Dallas? At least the line will be short."

While Simmons hardly shies away from a pro-Boston slant in his columns and books, his appeal extends at least to the four corners of this tour. 500+ snaked their way through the Dallas Borders' bookstore, while about 850 turned out in D.C. After his previous tour to promote the hardcover version of his book, Simmons remarked that his hand had morphed into a claw. This time? Not so bad. "The last time was worse, because I did like, nine signings in twelve days--that was stupid. I think four...four in five nights is about the most you'd want to do."

While the turnout wasn't daunting for the Sports Guy's claw, er...hand, the couple had a long line in front of them after the longer drive. Joel expected this, and his wife got the picture before she saw the line. "The parking lot was full. We parked about three lots away."

I give up...

2011-01-16T08:24:00.000-08:00

A week and a half into the playoffs I'm 2-4, with my only correct picks being both Packer games. Since the line moved enough to tempt me into a middle with Atlanta(-1), my money results are even more dismal than my picks. Follow me the rest of the way if you must, but be aware that I have pretty much lost hope and am mailing it in, as they say.

Having said that, the Pats line, which opened around -8.5, has moved to 10, so it is time for me to take the Jets. nyjets(+10)over NEWENGLAND. Am I aware that this pick could turn against me? Of course I am. Most of my picks have already done so.

If you're looking for somebody you trust to lay ten points with, the Pats are probably your team. I guess I'm taking CHICAGO(-10)over seattle trusting Soldier field to do a nice chunk of the dirty work. Not that Seattle can't play in the cold. Last week's upset of the champion Saints was in a blustery 40 degrees Farenheit or so. But the Seahawks are moving from the best home field advantage in the NFL in their favor, to one of the most hostile crowds going against them.

I am curious if it might be a disadvantage for the Bears playing on Sunday, now that they can look past the Seahawks to the hated Packers. According to all the Week 17 hype, the Packers are to Lovie Smith's Bears as a red flag is to a bull. The Bull almost always ends up skewerd. Will this one get stuck by Green Bay, or by the visiting Seahawks?

Incidentally, these picks put me opposite Bill Simmons across the board this week. I don't think this has ever happened before. More often than not I agree with the Sports Guy, and this year he actually cashed in the Hilton Supercontest. On the other hand, he faded Green Bay, who I thought was the only obvious pick this week. Perhaps the Packers are his blind spot. If so, I'm probably fucked again today.

Steelers Yellow?

2011-01-15T13:10:00.000-08:00

Until today, the only bet I had on the divisional round was greenbay(+3)over ATLANTA. I had the Falcons when they played during the regular season, but the Packers have improved their running game, and that, along with the rather vanilla Atlanta offense, is why I like the Pack.

On the other hand, as of this morning bodog had moved their line to ATL(-1.5). While I like the Packers to win, this line forced me to consider a middle. When I checked this afternoon, the line was down to ATL(-1), so I took my middle. ATLANTA(-1)over greenbay.

Baltimore-Pittsburgh is underway, and I have baltimore(+3)over PITTSBURGH. Given the recent history of tight games, I don't see how you can feel good giving up 3 points. If I didn't make a point of betting all the playoff games I would stay away from this one.

I've done a sweetheart tease of baltimore(+9.5), CHICAGO(-3.5), and NEWENGLAND(-2.5). I've never done one of these before, but those big lines in the Sunday games seem to be begging for this sort of action.

Pittsburgh is about to score. Maybe this is the time these teams finally have a blowout. The Steelers could ruin my tease before the Sunday games ever get started.

Hmmm. Baltimore leads on a fumble that everyone on the field let sit on the ground for several beats before Cory Redding carried it 12 yards for a score. My bets on the Ravens suddenly look good, while my bet on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl may be in jeopardy.

I havent' bet them yet, but I'm leaning Jets(+9), and Bears(-10).

Steelers are now down 21-7 at halftime. I see alot of yellow seats, but presumably these are from fans grabbing a beer or standing in line for the pisser.

Three and a half minutes into the second half, and fewer yellow seats are evident. If the Steelers have fair weather fans we haven't seen proof of it...yet.

Pittsburgh scored on a Roethlisberger pass to Heath Miller, after a fumble from Ray Rice. The crowd has been going completely mad, as if to prove I had nothing to worry about. Now all they need to do is win by two, and all of my bets will be in play.

Aint likely, but...

2011-01-08T13:27:00.000-08:00

It's almost game time. 11 is probably too high a number, with the Saints on the road with no running game to speak of, and what not. Outdoors in the cold with one of the NFL's loudest crowds. On the other hand, we're talking about a 12-4 team vs. a 7-9 team, and I really want to root for a ritual slaughter.

That's why I teased this one down to neworleans(-4)over SEATTLE, UNDER 53. That's why I am now confident that the Saints will win by about 37-20, just so my teaser doesn't work out.

I'd already bet the rest of the games. I already took KANSAS CITY(+3)over baltimore, and now that the line has moved, I've got KANSAS CITY(+3.5)over baltimore as well. I don't feel good about it though. I keep hearing that Dwayne Bowe is banged up, and that half the team has the flu.

The only pick I really feel good about is green bay(+3)over PHILADELPHIA. I bet the Packers because I thought they had a good enough pass rush to give Michael Vick problems. Apparently Vick isn't completely healthy either, making this pick look even stronger.

Meanwhile, Seattle has jumped out to a 31-20 lead early in the third quarter. There's still alot of time left, but there is no way my bet can win--not with the under, or even the teased under.

Seattle kicked another FG--34-20. 5 minutes left in the third quarter. This upset in the making gives all the other dogs hope. The Chiefs because their fans are even louder, the Jets because the Saints and Colts are both teams that aren't nearly as good this year as last. Right now I feel like at least one more underdog is advancing. The sad part is that if that team is the Jets I could go 0-4 for the week.

During halftime NBC continued to hype the supposed Peyton Manning-Rex Ryan rivalry, interviewing Manning at halftime. When my wife asked me who they were talking about, I said,
"Rex Ryan."
"Who's he?"
"The guy with the foot fetish."
"Oh, okay."
Maybe this will be his legacy. Sort of like Bill Clinton's cigar. Or W's premature mission accomplishment. Or Barak's Indonesian birth certificate. Will a win over the Colts this weekend make him more famous than his wife's cute feet? How about a Super Bowl win?

The Saints have scored, and trail by only 7. They are in this game, even if winning by 11 is off the table.

I may have to Gig myself after this one

2011-01-07T17:23:00.000-08:00

I've bet Texas A&M(+3)over LSU, after waiting over a week for the line to move from
A&M(+1). A Chad Millman column in late December predicted this line move, and it would appear the sharps waited as well, as I paid (-115) 45 minutes ago, and now the Ags cost (-120).

They are dragging out the pregame, and just introduced Jim Brown, who lost to TCU 54 years ago in the Cotton Bowl along with his Syracuse Orangemen. Meanwhile, A&M is up to
(-125).

A&M has scored, on about a 30 yard drive after a 69 yard kick return. 7-0. I have also gone for two parlays--Texas A&M(+105),over 49, paying 3/1, and LSU(-3),under 49, paying 2.83/1. On covers.com everyone seems to like the under, even if they're on the Aggies, but I think A&M needs the game to be a shootout.

Maybe the people on the under are thinking of A&M's 9-6 win over Nebraska. The Aggies now lead 10-0, with along drive after a pick they ran into their own end zone before coming back out to the two yard line. A&M showed they can run on LSU on that drive. That could help keep the score down as well. At this rate I may manage to lose both of my parlays. My Aggie parlay was with the moneyline rather than A&M(+3), so I could also lose that one if the score goes over but LSU wins by one or two, scenarios that I would win if I'd parlayed them with the pointspread.

LSU has answered with two scores, and are up 14-10. LSU and the over looks pretty good right now. I've been checking the line history at other sites, and it looks like bodog is one of the only sites that went to LSU(-3). Many sites moved up to LSU(-2.5), then pulled back to 1 or 2. If LSU is the public team, you could argue that bodog is the most public site out there. Covers.com's line history data is not completely accurate, however. Here is their bodog action, if I can cut and paste it successfully...A&M is up 17-14, but LSU is threatening again.

Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
12/09/10 11:14:55 AM -1/-110 (Open) OFF
12/09/10 11:14:56 AM -1/-110 49 -110 (Open)
12/15/10 4:54:53 PM -1/-110 49u -115
12/27/10 11:54:54 AM -1/-110 49 -110
01/01/11 6:24:54 AM -1/-115 49 -110
01/04/11 12:04:53 AM -1.5/-110 49 -110
01/05/11 4:34:54 PM -2/-110 49 -110
01/06/11 6:04:54 PM -2/-115 49 -110
01/07/11 9:34:54 AM -3/105 49 -110
01/07/11 10:54:53 AM -3/105 49o -115
01/07/11 11:54:53 AM -3/100 49o -115
01/07/11 2:34:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 6:24:54 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:14:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 7:24:53 PM -3/-110 49o -115
01/07/11 7:54:53 PM -3/-105 49o -115
01/07/11 8:04:53 PM -3/-105 49 -110
01/07/11 8:24:53 PM -3/-105 49u -115

Blogger has compressed this history so it is barely readable. In any case, on their history the LSU(-3) price since 9:34 this morning is at -105, other than when it moved to -110 at 6:24 pm, and 7:24 pm. When I parlayed LSU at 8:09 LSU(-3)was (+105), so the vig moved a couple of ticks beyond what covers has. Makes me wonder how they get their history.

It's halftime, and LSU leads 28-17. No way in hell this goes under. If A&M doesn't catch up I will lose all three bets.

Woooooooo Hog Sooooooooeeeeeee!(?)

2011-01-04T21:19:00.000-08:00

I bet Ohio State(-3)over Arkansas yesterday, and the Buckeyes got up 28-7 in the first half, before ultimately winning a nail-biter, 31-26. I remain shit-hot, barely. I also took

green bay(+3)over PHILADELPHIA. I may bet this again, taking the Pack again if the line moves to 3.5 or more, but taking the Eagles if the line gets back to 2.5. Money has been pouring in on the Pack since the line went to 3, and since I have Green Bay(-130) I expect the inflated vig may negate the value of any middle I go after. Ideally the Eagles win by one or two, keeping my bet on them to win the Super Bowl alive. I think Green Bay has the kind of front 4 that can give Vick problems.

On the other hand, I was all over the Pack on the road last year at Arizona, and look how that turned out.

Discover Orange Degeneracy

2011-01-03T17:40:00.000-08:00

I just bet Stanford(-4)over Virginia Tech, seconds before the kickoff. Am I a degenerate? If

Va Tech's defense is half as good as it has been in the past, the Hokies seem like the smarter bet.

Of course, I'm saying this as Andrew Luck throws one in the dirt on 3rd and 8.

The second Stanford drive ended around midfield with a failed fake punt--a short snap and a run up the middle that got stuffed. Next drive Stanford drove 86 yards, the last 60 on a run off left tackle.

Stanford leads 13-12 at the half, courtesy of a safety, a botched extra point, and a crappy prevent defense that allowed VTech to get a late FG. If I lose this pick because of that extra point, I'll be pissed.

I've started betting the first round of the NFL playoffs. Last night I guessed the lines. Here's what I came up with.

neworleans(-10) SEATTLE

INDIANAPOLIS(-4) nyjets

baltimore(-1) KANSASCITY

PHILADELPHIA(-3) greenbay

and the actual lines?

neworleans(-10.5)

INDY(-3)

balt(-3)

PHILY(-2.5)

The Saints are now favored by 11. This line may keep going up. Indy is lower than I expected. I think this line moves up, though the early money is on the Jets. I think the Oakland game colored the perception of the Ravens, and I've seen a sharp book where the line agreed with me.

I thought GB-Phily would be on a big number, to keep the line from passing a big number. Bodog has moved to 3, and $$ is pouring in on the Packers. Maybe some book that has the line at (-2.5) is getting crazy action the other way.

I was almost sold on giving the points with the Ravens, who have the kind of defense that could shut down the Chiefs. Then I remembered the Raven offense, which hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Give me points and the home team. KANSASCITY(+3)over baltimore. This is a battle of teams with my fantasy RBs. Last year I took Ray Rice in the 6th round, and got Jamaal Charles off waivers. This year I took Charles in the second round...and won my league.

The Colts seem to be a shadow of last year's team. Have the Jets figured out how to beat them? They could pull off the upset the way the Chargers did two years ago, but I'm not going against Manning. Not this week anyway. Not against Mark Sanchez. Though if the line moves to 4.5 or 5, I may bet it the other way. For now, INDY(-3)over nyjets.

Stanford won, 40-12. I am shit hot.

I'm taking Ohio State(-3)over Arkansas now, before the line moves. Coulda gave only 3.5 with Stanford, but I waited too long. $$ is leaning the Buckeyes way. Gotta like a team who trades memorabilia for skin ink, then gets suspended for next year. Any time the NCAA bends their own rules, so you can play and be a cash cow, you gotta like those odds. Those tattoos will sting alot less in the offseason with a Sugar Bowl win.

Have I mentioned that I am shit hot?

Last Sunday

2011-01-02T09:43:00.000-08:00

I'd like to thank my fantasy opponent for reminding me that the Jags are without MJD and David Garrard this week. He's starting Trent Edwards this week. Remind me to invite more Jacksonville natives into my league next year. HOUSTON(-3)over jacksonville. Now we just need to wait to see how the Texans will blow this one.

I've taken stlouis(-3)over SEATTLE. Sam Bradford has some wins on the road this year, and the Seahawks are starting some cat named Whitehurst at QB. They also aren't big on stopping the run; troublesome with Steven Jackson looming. My consolation if I'm wrong will be the chance to mock the first 7-9 playoff team in NFL history.

Not crazy about giving points on the road, but Big Ben has owned the Browns, and the Steelers are trying to lock up the 2 seed, unlike the Bears. pittsburgh(-6)over CLEVELAND.

Oklahoma(-15.5)over UConn came through for me, 48-20, as did

Wisconsin(+3)over TCU, barely, as the Badgers lost by two, 21-19. I'm on a nice roll right now.

Pittsburgh romped, 41-9. Houston-Jax was tied a couple of times, but eventually the Texans prevailed, 34-17.

Matt Hasselbeck has been warming up. Apparently he's not starting, but he is able to play. Had I known that, I probably wouldn't have laid three points with the Rams.

The Seahawks won, 16-6. If you knew Charlie Whitehurst wasn't going to suck this week, the Seahawks were the obvious play. Apparently he amassed alot of evidence to the contrary last week.

The fact that Hasselbeck even warmed up was a bad sign. At that point, you knew Pete Carroll had enough confidence to play Whitehurst even though Matty Bald was ready to go...or that there would be enough time for him to undo any damage from Chucky Dub.

New Year not happy for Big 10

2011-01-01T10:08:00.000-08:00

$$ has poured in on Michigan State, who have moved from a 10 point dog to a 8.5 point dog, and on Uconn, who have dropped from a 17 point dog down to 15. The perception is that Alabama and Oklahoma don't care enough to show up for relatively minor bowl games. Right now 'Bama is driving, and the Tide crowd is making a bunch of noise...State hasn't had the ball yet. We'll see if they can move the ball against an SEC defense. If not "Bama probably covers.

Oklahoma is a whole two years removed from their BCS Championship game vs. Florida, and they are in a BCS bowl game, but this is a pretty lame matchup. What is their motivation? To silence the smirks of Chokelahoma? Beating UConn won't help, because UConn sucks. That's the perception anyway. UConn lost to Michigan, which makes me think it's more than a perception, though they may have improved since then.

The Big Ten has been going down like the Hindenburg all day. Northwestern lost to Texas Tech, 45-38. Respectable, unlike Michigan State and Michigan, who were crushed, 49-7 by Alabama, and 52-14 to Mississippi State respectively. Penn State made a game of it, but ultimately fell to Florida, 37-24, and Wisconsin lost to TCU, 21-19.

The only consolations, for me at least, are that I had Wisconsin(+3)over TCU, so Wisconsin covered, and that Rich Rodriguez will probably get fired. Go Green.

I went ahead and took Oklahoma(-15.5)over UConn, not so much a bet against UConn as a bet against somebody who managed to lose to Michigan. Right now OU is up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. Hopefully they get up about 35-0 before their supposed lack of motivation kicks in. I could have had Okla(-15) earlier, or I could have paid vig for that, but 15 to 15.5 isn't a big half point. On the other hand, I would have paid to drop from 14.5 to 14. In fact, the reason I didn't bet this sooner was because I was hoping the line would drop to 14.

Bodog's line moved back to 16 before game time.

Ugh. UConn just got a pick 6. I wonder if the Sooners are about to find a way to blow this game.

I haven't found any pro games I like for this weekend. Maybe HOUSTON(-3)over jacksonville. Like the Texans haven't burned me enough already.

20-10 at the half. I just realized Matt Millen is one of the announcers. If the Sooners don't cover I'm blaming him. I'm a Lions fan. It's what we do.

Go COCKS!

2010-12-31T16:47:00.000-08:00

Took South Carolina(-3)over Florida State...FlaSt is getting stuffed after an early turnover, but just got a FG...Go Cocks! I'm putting my 5-0 streak in jeoparday, but I can't resist the cock!

A picture of me and Mike B. made it on to covers.com. Me and Mike drinking Whiskey and smoking cigars...sort of like I was doing today, minus the brotherhood, but plus the bbq chicken & babyback ribs...

Why is Steve Spurrier the Old Ball Coach? Why is Brett Favre the Ol' Yogurt Slinger? Say no more.

Line moves against Baylor

2010-12-29T15:41:00.000-08:00

I thought I'd already posted my Illinois(+1)over Baylor bet, but I haven't, probably because I bet it while I was on the phone with Pugilant Mick last night. This line opened at Baylor(-1.5), but at game time it has moved to Illinois(-2). I thought I'd waited too long, and I probably had, since Illinois(+1.5) was available for a while. The line has moved 3 points since I bet though, and I like that I got my money in before that.

It's the beginning of the 2nd quarter, and Illinois is up 9-0 on three field goals...make that 16-0. I was starting to wonder if the FGs might come back to bite Illinois in the ass, but they've gotten into the end zone now. Thye've shown that they can move the ball against Baylor, and Baylor has yet to do the same.

Checking back, I did talk about this game in my post Christmas is no reason to stop gambling, but I hadn't bet it yet at that point.

Illinois is about to close out a Texas Bowl win--they lead 31-14, and just took over ow downs, after Baylor drove down to their five yard line. I just bet Oklahoma State(-5.5)over Arizona. The Cowboys score points in droves, and 'Zona limped into the Alamo Bowl, losing their last 4 after working their way to a 7-1 record and a #13 ranking. I'm more suspicious of Arizona's motivation than I am of OKState's. We'll see if I'm right, though I may have to check the score in the morning, since I have to get up early.

Illinois scored on a 50+ yard bootleg with under a minute to go. 38-14 Illini. This prompted a discussion in the Box as to weather or not they ought to have been falling on the ball.

Last night Pugilant Mick made some noise about how Maryland & East Carolina wouldn't be able to put up 71 points, the over/under for that game. I bring this up

a.) because Maryland won 51-20, hitting the number exactly

b.) because this shows just how accurate Vegas can be

c.) because I'm going to call Mick and fuck with him.

It's 2AM. Oklahoma State won, 36-10. I'm on a 5-0 run. Probably just jinxed it.

Dirty South MNF

2010-12-27T17:35:00.000-08:00

I've taken neworleans(+3)over ATLANTA. Most other books have ATL(-1) to ATL(-2.5). I guess I can't pass up a bargain, though the vig expired on me twice while I was trying to bet. Usually teams that get the huge vig tend to end up covering, at least in the games I remember. Of course, the true bargain happens when I get a push that I wouldn't have gotten, like in baltimore(+3)over NEW ENGLAND.

I thought about betting uconn(+7)at PITTSBURGH. Seven seems like alot for what should be evenly matched teams--if the rankings are at all accurate. UConn did go from unranked to the top 10 a bit quickly, and their last 5 wins have been against nobodies. Vegas seems to think they are frauds, and based on the vigs, the public agrees...or the sharps do. Most books moved this line to 7.5. Right now Pitt is up 37-28 at the half, within a shot of the spread.

Jags, 'Niners overrated

2010-12-26T16:12:00.000-08:00

I only bet one other game today, other than the one I already mentioned,

STLOUIS(-2)over sanfrancisco. That was washington(+7)over JACKSONVILLE. I bet this game late, when the Jags announced that Maurice Jones-Drew wasn't playing. I already thought the 'Skins were a bit undervalued at +6.5, and +7 against a Jones-Drewless Jag team seemed like a real bargain.

It was. Washington jumped out to a 10-0 lead, and held on for a 20-17 overtime win. The beauty of OT at (+7) is Jacksonville could have scored a TD, and I still would have won, since they don't kick extra points in OT.

The Rams gave me a couple of scares before eventually settling down and winning, 25-17, I wasn't crazy about this score, since it had the potential for a backdoor cover. Fortunately this didn't happen.

This line eventually moved to StL(-3). Maybe the betting public is off the 'Niner Kool-Aid.

I went 1-1 on the NBA yesterday. NEWYORK(-1)over chicago came through for me, as the Knicks won, 103-95. LALAKERS(-3)over miami? Not so much. The Heat won this one, 96-80.

Mainly I'm glad I didn't bet the Celtics, since they got beat at Orlando. Boston had a 14 game win streak going, and I thought they might have the Magic outmanned, even on the road. Maybe this Gilbert Arenas trade will work out for them.

Christmas is no reason to stop gambling

2010-12-25T10:29:00.001-08:00

Merry Christmas. The NBA is on today, and I've bet NEWYORK(-1)over chicago, and LALAKERS(-3)over miami. I'm staying away from Boston at Orlando, though the Celtics are tempting at (+2).

I've taken STLOUIS(-2)over sanfrancisco. The 'Niners don't seem to be able to settle on a starting QB, so Troy Smith starting is more of a sign of instability than a talent upgrade, at least to me.

Knicks-Bulls is halfway through the 3rd quarter, and New York is up 73-69...73-71. Right now the extra vig I paid to get the line down from 1.5 to one seems well spent.

Texas A&M-LSU is off the board, on bodog at least. I'd like to see the Aggies win, but I'm looking at betting the Tigers. Beating 'Bama and losing by 7 or 8 to Auburn and Arkansas is more impressive than the 5 or so straight wins that A&M have rattled off. Can the 12th man turn Cowboys Stadium into a home field for the Aggs? This is the only way LSU(-1) makes sense to me. Louisiana is only a state away, and I expect they'll be there in force as well.

I like Illinois(+1.5)over Baylor, though again, I'd like to see the Bears pull off the win. Baylor has some impressive wins this year, but when they lose they've tended to get blown out. If the Illini can figure out how to stop Robert Griffin III they should be okay...if not they may still be okay--Baylor isn't big on playing defense.

I guess wrong, watch Fargo

2010-12-19T16:34:00.000-08:00

Lots of new QBs playing this week, so I figured I'd bet against as many of them as possible. It didn't work out like I'd hoped. I had DALLAS(-7)over washington. The Cowboys led 30-7 early, but Rex Grossman rallied the Redskins, and they tied the game at 30 before eventually falling, 33-30.

Nothing new about Kerry Collins, but while the grizzled vet is no Rusty Smith, the Titans have been playing badly enough that I took houston(+1)over TENNESSEE. Oops. Tennessee won, 31-17. Not even a heartbreaking finish for the Texans.

I expected the Ravens choke genes to kick in, and took neworleans(+2)over BALTIMORE. They did, blowing a 14 point lead, giving up a 15 yard Brees pass to Lance Moore with 11:34 to go that tied the game at 24. From that point on the Ravens took over, ultimately winning,
30-24.

If Dallas had won by six, and Baltimore by 3, I still would have lost both bets. Both of these games featured comebacks to ties, though one had a Super Bowl winning QB coming back against a top defense, while the other had a rusty Super Bowl losing QB coming back against a team with nothing to play for.

I have NEWENGLAND(-14)over greenbay. Right now the Pack are up 10-7, on a 66 yard TD to James Jones from Matt Flynn. Flynn was the reason I faded the Pats.

It's 17-7 going into the half. Plenty of time for the Pats to come back, but the way this is going I donlt see them covering....Or do I? The Pats just scored. Apparently most of the damage was done on a long kick return by one of their offensive linemen. I'm not sure who, or how far, because I've been watching Fargo on the other channel.

The Raiders and the Tim Tebow led Broncos were tied at 7, 14, 17, and 20 before the Raiders pulled away and won, 39-23. I had OAKLAND(-8)over denver. Tim Tebow made some nice throws and had a 40 yard run for a TD, so I expect everyone will be sucking his cock after this, but let me point out that he was only 8 for 16 for 133 yards. Not bad for his first start, but lets not get carried away.

Last week I had DALLAS(+4)over philadelphia. The Cowboys backdoor covered, 30-27. I had tampa bay(-3)over WASHINGTON. The Redskins backdoor covered, but botched the extra point and lost, 17-16.

I had JACKSONVILLE(-4)over oakland. The Jags won and covered, 38-31. I had cincinnati(+9)over PITTSBURGH. Wasn't enough. The Steelers won, 23-7.

The week before that I had houston(+9)over PHILADELPHIA, and barely lost, 34-24. I had denver(+9)over KANSASCITY. Denver lost but covered, 10-6. I had
TAMPABAY(+3)over atlanta. The Falcons won and covered, 28-24.. I had $$ on pittsburgh over BALTIMORE, but I botched it by teasing that game with the over--
pittsburgh(+9)OVER 31. The Steelers won 13-10, but the OVER didn't come close.

Dome, Packers Collapse

2010-12-12T09:59:00.000-08:00

Just got back from playing poker overnight at Chocktaw after interviewing Bill Simmons yesterday, & got some bets down.

I took JACKSONVILLE(-4)over oakland. This is the kind of line where I try to fade the favorite, but I'm all about going against West Coast teams traveling to the opposite coast. Especially when the West sucks. The Jags are playing well, and could win their way into the playoffs.

cincinnati(+9)over PITTSBURGH I'm willing to concede that Cincy sucks, though it may seem less so if you didn't expect much from them in the first place. The Bengals always seem to play tough against their own division though, and the Steelers haven't exactly been setting the world on fire. Give me the 9 points.

Darren McFadden just took one to the house. Raiders, 7-0. That flushing sound is me losing money. That creaking sound is the Colts sneaking into the playoffs through the back door.

tampa bay(-3)over WASHINGTON Not crazy about giving points on the road. This is one of those bets I talk myself into because of fantasy football. I've been debating between Chris Ivory, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams (TB) and LeGarrette Blount for my flex all week. It turns out the 'Skins are 28th against the pass, and 27th against the run. I started Blount.

I've taken DALLAS(+4)over philadelphia. This game opened at 3.5. The vig seems to indicate that this line will bring in some Cowboy money, so I don't think we'll see 4.5. Dallas has been playing well, and I continue to think Phily is a public team right now, especially since Michael Vick is leading the Pro Bowl voting for all positions.

The roof of the Metrodome has collapsed under the weight of an assload of snow. Previously the game was delayed until Monday because of the snow. Now it's delayed, and will be played at Detroit's Ford Field. Will this negate Minnesota's home field advantage? Will the Giants prolonged traveling take it's toll? Where will the Vikes play their remaining home games?

For now there is no line. Once the oddsmakers figure out the above, and whether or not Brett Favre will play, we'll see a line.

LeBron lowers my winning %

2010-12-04T23:05:00.000-08:00

I kicked ass last week, going 4-2 on the NFL, 5-2 if you count that I had Atlanta over Green Bay at both ATL(-2) and ATL(-1). The Falcons won, 20-17. This game came down to the wire, just as I expected. It would have been a good candidate for a double tease--maybe even a quad tease.

I won on HOUSTON(-6)over tennessee. It looks like the Rusty Smith era has ended as quicky as it began. The Texans won, 20-0, and Andre Johnson decked Cortland Finnegan.

I lost on SEATTLE(+2)over kansascity, as the Chiefs finally won one on the road, 42-24. Are the days of the Seahawks being money at home over? I may have to limit bets on them to games against their divisional rivals.

I lost on OAKLAND(-3)over miami. The Raiders lost, 33-17. What's the world coming to?

The Bears made me look like a genius, taking down the Eagles, 31-26. I had CHICAGO(+4). I'm not a bit confident about my bet on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, and I'm not ready to live in a world where I have to take the Bears seriously, either. They could end up a two seed the way it's going. I take the Bears and Falcons seriously at home, which could translate to one of them representing the NFC this year.

The Chargers came through with their usual demolition of the Colts, winning on the road, 36-14, despite zero contribution from Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, and less than usual from the still gimpy Antonio Gates. I had san diego(+3)over INDIANAPOLIS.

I've started off this week 0-1. I took houston(+9)over PHILADELPHIA, and the Texans justified my belief that this line was inflated, coming from behind to take a 24-20 lead, before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns and losing 34-24. I still think this was a solid bet.

Meanwhile, I bet against the Miami Heat twice, taking detroit(+12), and CLEVELAND(+6). Apparently the Heat have been a good team to bet against this year, but this may be changing, as I lost both of these bets.

I have denver(+9)over KANSAS CITY. Nine? Apparently somebody's drinking the KC Kool-Aid now. The Broncos beat the Chiefs 49-29 a few weeks ago. I've heard the arguement that Todd Haley will try to run up the score as a vengeance move. That assumes he will be in a position to run up the score. I say the Broncos keep it close. It seem like there are alot of 9 point lines in the last couple of weeks.

I've also taken TAMPABAY(+3)over atlanta. If nine points is the line for overrated home favorites, three points seems to be the standard on the road. The Bucs have won alot more than anybody thought they would, and they've kept their losses close, excepf for when I bet them against the Saints. Oops.

I liked buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA, and I wasn't alone. This line is down to 5.5, and I'm not sure how I feel about it there. Still tempted, I guess. Actually I can pay -120 vig to get it back to 6. I'll do it. buffalo(+6)over MINNESOTA. Last week you could have won with BUFFALO(+7)over pittsburgh, jacksonville(+7)over NYGIANTS, and tampabay(+7.5)over BALTIMORE.

In armaggedonish games like last week's Iron Bowl I like to look for a double tease that makes sense to me. With Alabama and Auburn's contrasting styles, I liked 'Bama and the under, and Auburn and the over. While the early going made Alabama and the over look like the most likely result, Auburn came back and made both of my bets cover.

In the case of Pittsburgh at Baltimore, I again expect a tight game (when was the last time somebody won this game by more than four points?), and I like the over, since teasing the number gets me the insanely low pittsburgh(+10)over BALTIMORE, OVER 32. While I don't hate BALTIMORE(+4), OVER 32, the +4 is not ideal, (lines closest to a pick are best for this kind of tease) I will take the Pittsburgh end of it. These teams give up enough points to make me feel good about the teased over, and they're so consistent that I feel like you can count on at least 16 points from each of them, though no more than 24 from either. I don't have a problem with teasing the OVER up to 45 or 46, though I'm not going to do this myself. These teams score more than peple give them credit for, though they didn't last week.

I'm not convinced Kerry Collins is the cure for what ails the Titans, but he might be. I never feel like I quite have a handle on what the Titans and Jags are going to do...other than last week. Bring back Rusty Smith! I like what he did to Chris Johnson's fantasy numbers, since there's a good chance I play him in the playoffs in one of my leagues.

Of the five contenders left in the Bunny Slope league, two took QBs in the first round, one took theirs in the 4th round, and the other two waited until late. Overall, I think our scoring system made QB play largely irrelevant. If anything, top QBs seem to be a liability because they keep you from drafting top RBs and WRs. Here are our top teams, and the QBs they've started this year.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3)--Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Shaun Hill, Kevin Kolb
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4)--Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck
Camden Convicts (8-4)--Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Jon Kitna
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4)--Brett Favre, Michael Vick
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5)--Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler

The only good thing about my 4th round Matt Schaub pick turned out to be that Tony Romo got injured seven games in. I think I've benched him about as much as I've started him. Ryan Fitzpatrick has outscored him, despite playing two fewer games.

Eli Manning is the 10th scoring QB this year. His main problem was that it took Pugilant Mick a while to figure out he doesn't completely suck. Matt Cassel's main problem (for Mick) is that his resurgence came after Mick dropped him.

Kyle Orton turned out to be one of the draft's biggest steals. He has outscored Peyton Manning at this point, and is 3rd in QB scoring.

Brett Favre was the 5th overall pick, possibly the dumbest pick in the entire draft. Baby B. also traded Jay Cutler away for Steve Slaton. He made up for his stupidity by trading for Michael Vick, though he had to give up DeSean Jackson to get him. I think he dropped both Vick and Favre, though he had the sense to pick Vick back up. Unfortunately, he picked Favre back up as well.

Daddy B. took Peyton Manning with the first overall pick, whcih is way too soon. That is why he is stating Justin Forsett at RB, though it could be worse. Baby B. is starting Jason Snelling and Michael Bush this week, and has played Snelling and Hightower for most of the season. This weakness at RB is why I am going to crush him today, and possibly knock him out of the playoffs.

Life isn't always fair. Here are our teams in order of points scored.

The Ol' Yogurt Slinger (9-3) 1697
Fighting Irish Notre Dame (8-4) 1537
Camden Convicts (8-4) 1508
PR Cowboys (6-6) 1483
Team Cheesehead (5-7) 1445
Show Me Your TD's 1438
Tennessee Jaguars (7-5) 1436
Argentina Buenos Aires (8-4) 1392
Pixburgh Stillers (4-8) 1372
Evil Robot Army (6-6) 1292
Florida Blue Falcons (5-7) 1289
Anaheim Shamieh (2-10) 1093

As long as Argentina loses, Camden and Irish keep the 2 & 3 seeds. Since they have stronger teams, it does me no good to try to throw the last game to influence my first round opponent. Even if I determined that I would rather play Tennessee, the risk of ending up aginst Camden sooner than necessary makes the juice of an attempted rig worth considerably less than the squeeze.

Pennsyltucky Dave stiffs me

2010-11-28T06:50:00.000-08:00

I was going to watch Michigan State-Penn State with Pennsyltucky Dave, but he cancelled on me because his wife wanted him to clean something, and because his sac is kept in her purse. I treated it like he'd forgotten our anniversary, though in a silent, sulky way, rather than in a whiny female way. I feel like our bromance is on a creepy new level. The Cable Guy has nothing on me.

It's tough to find anybody else who gives a crap about the outcome of MSU-PSU in the middle of Texas. Eventually I called up N-Trail, since he is a Spartan Alum like myself, though I think he's been in California so long that he is relatively oblivious.

Time to get some bets down on the NFL. Yay.

ATLANTA(-2)over greenbay. Does this mean I'm finally drinking the Falcon Kool-Aid? More like the Falcons at home Kool-Aid, since they haven't lost in the Georgia Dome in awhile. Of course, the Packers have torched their last few opponents, and are one of the teams we can reasonably expect to have a decent shot at overcoming Atlanta's home field advantage. In fact, these two are on the short list of teams who may be the best in the NFC, along with the Eagles and 49ers.

Speaking of the 49ers, it looks like I'm taking the week off from betting against them, since the last time I backed the Cardinals at home against a crappy team, the Seahawks turned out to be not crappy enough.

Speaking of not crappy enough, the Seahawks are getting points at home. While I've been pulling for the Chiefs all year, this has not led them to win any games on the road. SEATTLE(+2)over kansascity.

In other games involving teams that suck, I like OAKLAND(-3)over miami. Teams that just got blown out (like Oakland, 35-3 at Pittsburgh) tend to bounce back the next week. Does getting shut out (like Miami, 16-0, home vs. Chicago) have the same effect? This line wasn't up a few minutes ago for some reason. I'd better bet it right now, before they pull it down again. The Dolphins are a mess right now. Traveling to the West coast is unlikely to help.

The Falcons line is down to 1.5. Should I bet it again?

I like the Bills getting 7 at home vs. Pittsburgh, and the Bucs getting 7.5 at Baltimore. Is this just because I have Steve Johnson and Mike Williams on my fantasy team, the Ol' Yogurt Slinger? Bill Simmons is probably right when he says the Bucs are the bad team you can count on to beat other bad teams. If I hadn't found other games I like I might bet these, but I'm staying away.

I actually got into a shouting match with a Bears fan at Old Chicago a few weeks ago about how much they suck, but I may take them hosting the Eagles. This is the sort of game the Eagles should win if my bet on them to win the Super Bowl is justified. Also it's the sort of game they should win if their receivers don't drop easy touchdown passes. If last week was what we can expect from the Eagles in a down week, they'll be fine. If it's true that you've got to lose to know how to win, this could be a rung on Philly's Super Bowl ladder. CHICAGO(+3.5)over philadelphia. Make that CHICAGO(+4)over philadelphia. I just paid the extra vig.

Houston keeps losing heartbreakers. Do they do it again this week? Against Titans QB Rusty Smith? Seriously, Rusty Smith? There's a reason bodog waited all week to but up a line. HOUSTON(-6)over tennessee. I find it a little strange that I can go all week without finding any lines I like, then find a ton on Sunday Morning. I think this week I can chalk most of this up to having to wait for this line to come out. And my reluctance to fade the Eagles and Chiefs.

If I'm going to bet the Chargers, now is the time, as the vig is heavy on their side. If bodog doesn't move the line to 2.5 (and they probably won't) the vig will just get even heavier. -130 is enough. sandiego(+3)over INDIANAPOLIS.

I've paid extra vig to get the Falcons down to ATLANTA(-1)over green bay. Not sure if this 1/2 point is worth it, but it feels more worthwhile to get this, since I already have ATL(-2).

Iron Bowl

2010-11-26T11:30:00.000-08:00

I've done my classic double tease: ALABAMA(+3)UNDER 65, auburn(+11)OVER 51. I'm paying a -130 vig for this 14 point box, with the logic that a low scoring game should indicate things are going 'Bama's way, while a high scoring game should indicate the opposite. My gut likes Auburn and the under, however. My bets are more an indication of degeneracy than an opinion. This is the biggest game of the year, and I want some action on it.

Whoa--Auburn is getting exposed and hosed. 21-0 in the first quarter. It looks like I need to root for the UNDER.

Hmmm. The third quarter is winding down, and 'Bama leads, 27-21, for a total of 48. Right now I still have 'Bama and the under, and I'm within a couple of scores of hitting both teases. In fact, an Alabama FG will put me at 30-21, for a win and a push. An Auburn FG gets me the same thing. A 'Bama TD gives me a win and a loss, as Auburn(+11) wouldn't cover, 34-21. An Auburn TD gets me to 28-27, winning both bets.

Auburn just converted a 4th and 3, and look like they are about to score. If they take the lead right now I have to believe there will be at least two more scores. Unless these are a FG and a TD, giving me a push, I think the OVER is coming in.

Auburn just scored. 28-27. 55 points. Right now both my bets are winning.

'Bama is driving, and taking their time. This is good for my bets. 4th and inches, 8:23 to go. The Tide have rolled at least the required inch. 1st down.

McElroy just took a sack on another 4th down, and he hasn't gotten up. From my living room in Texas it looks like a hurt right shoulder. That brings a 4th down & 16. If Auburn scores my 'Bama tease can't cover...until 'Bama comes back at least. 'Bama has shanked a punt, and right now it sounds like Greg McElroy may have a concussion.

Auburn is driving, and just converted a 4th and inches. They don't look too interested in scoring, though. Good. 2:35 to go.

Speaking of not trying to score, it looks like Auburn just took a delay of game on 3rd and 9....no, they called timeout. 1:47 to go.

An Auburn sweep just got stuffed. 'Bama ball will be the best thing for my bets. At that point anything but a Tide turnover would put me in good shape.

4th and 10. If 'Bama doesn't convert, Auburn is in FG range....they didn't. 0:30 to go. Fall on the ball, Auburn!

They did. Cha-ching! Ballgame. Both my teases covered. In fact, my gut instinct that Auburn and the under would come in turned out to be right as well, since the O/U was 57. Wacky.

'Niners continue to suck...NCAABB!!

2010-11-23T18:34:00.000-08:00

I've taken kansasstate(+5)over DUKE in the CBE Classic Championship Final. Really it should be KANSASSTATE(+5)over duke, since the game is being played in Kansas City, MO, which is so close to Kansas that most people think it's in Kansas. Has a home court advantage been factored in? If so, that would mean Duke is 8 or 9 points better. If that is accurate, KState won't be ranked #4 for long.

Really I should be hoping Duke wins, since Michigan State will jinx themselves if they elevate to #1. I almost hope State loses so we can keep off the top spot. Choke city.

Anyway, I was due to stick my toe in the water on NCAA hoops. Especially when KState is taking on #1. My first bet last year was KSTATE(-1)OVER #1 texas. I don't remember the score, but I know I won.

Only bet one NFL game last week, and Tampa Bay(+3) hammered San Francisco, 21-0. Everyone bet the 'Niners, so much so that I would have been given vig if I'd waited longer. This SF love shows no sign of relenting, as the 'Niners are favored by a point next Monday night at Arizona. Of course, the last time I bet the Cardinals I lost, so I may avoid this one. Betting against SF has been $$ in the bank though.

Crap. KState-Duke is a bout to start, and the line has moved to 5.5. Fuck it.

I go 2-1, Eagles insane, 'Niners suck

2010-11-17T08:36:00.001-08:00

Last week I went 2-1 on the NFL, as Dallas(+14.5) won outright over the Giants, 33-20, St Louis(+6) lost in OT, but covered vs. San Francisco, 23-20, and Arizona(-3) lost outright to Seattle, 36-18. I've continued to fade the weirdly overrated 'Niners, and I somehow have $$ on every game decided 23-20 in OT.

I was sorely tempted to take Philadelphia(-3), but didn't. The Eagles romped to a 59-28 thrashing over Washington, jumping out to a 35-0 lead nine seconds into the 2nd quarter. Sick, but not as sick as DeSean Jackson's unfortunate comparison of the Vick-led Eagles to Pit Bulls, ready to get out of their cage and kill somebody. I guess if Jackson gets popped for running a dogfighting ring we can consider ourselves warned.

While it would have been nice to have some $$ down on the Eagles, I'd probably be getting killed if I bet all the road favorites I liked. Thsi was a revenge game for the Eagles though, and Donovan McNabb's sudden contract extension looks like one more indicator that Mike Shannahan and the 'Skins brain trust has no idea what they are doing.

Since it would still be nice to have some $$ on the Eagles, I've taken them at 9/1 to win the Super Bowl. While I doubt the Eagles will ever be as good as they were Monday night (not this year...maybe not any year) they just may have enough weapons to give everyone hell the rest of the way. I still have $$ on the Steelers at around the same odds--maybe 17/2.

Right now alot of teams are 8/1 to win the Super Bowl. How many?

Atlanta
Baltimore
Green Bay
New England
NY Jets
Pittsburgh

The next favorites are NYGiants and Phily at 9/1. Indy is 11/1, and the Saints and Chargers are 12/1. After that the Titans are 25/1, and the 'Niners are 50/1. I guess there are still some people sucking the 'Niner cock. Somebody needs to win the NFC West, unless the NFL suddenly changes the rules during the season.

Speaking of the 'Niners, I'm continuing to fade them. tampabay(+3)over SANFRANCISCO. Right now the vig is moving towards the 'Niners, but I'd be a bit surprised if this gets to 3.5

The Eagles are favored by 3.5 vs. the visiting Giants, and so far $$ is coming in on the road team. If this drops to 3 I may take the Eagles. Could be a big statement game for the NFC.

Cowboys wont disappoint--as long as they lose by 14 or less

2010-11-14T00:21:00.000-08:00

I went 2-0 last week. Both Philadelphia and Atlanta showed why they deserved to be favored by more than I though they deserved, before ultimately failing to cover. Indy came from behind to cover vs. the Eagles, 26-24. Tampa Bay did likewise, losing to the Falcons, 27-21. I still can't believe I got 10 points in that one. During the game I thought I was +7.5 or 8. I suppose the Falcons have proven themselves that much more, since they just beat the Ravens Thursday night.

Tomorrow I have dallas(+14.5)over NEWYORKGIANTS. This game opened at 10.5, but was up to 14.5 by the time I saw a line. I bet it immediately. Usually teams that got blown out the previous week are good bets. Everyone seems to be convinced the Cowboys are imploding. Maybe they are, but I see them doing the 4 point loss kind of implosion they've been doing all year. When was the last time you saw a 14 point spread in an NFC East divisional game?

Meanwhile, the 49er Kool-Aid is a heady brew. That's why they're favored by six hosting the Rams. What have the 'Niners done better than the Cowboys, aside from be in a crappy divison? (And run the ball. Frank Gore is a stud.) Would the Cowboys be favored this week if the Giants were 4-4? Fuck no. stlouis(+6)over SANFRANCISCO. Nonsense.

I've also taken ARIZONA(-3)over seattle. Shouldn't the fact that the Seahawks are terrible on the road get the Cards another half point or so? Isn't Hasselbeck still out?

(Checking.....)

Matt Hasselbec is playing. This doesn't make me regert my pick, though it may make me keep both Mike Williamses on my Fantasy roster. And 3 Johnsons (Andre, Calvin, and Steve). My WR corps is sick. My bench may outscore some teams this week, whcih is a nice way to say I may be making some mistakes with my roster.

The fact that Seattle got blown out last week may bode ill for my 'Zona pick, or at least bodes ill for my logic for picking the Cowboys.

I've been behind recapping my picks from the last few weeks, so let me try to catch up.

October 16-17: minnesota (+6)over PURDUE: Not so much--Purdue, 28-17. 0-1
olemiss(+21)over ALABAMA That's more like it--'Bama, 23-10. 1-1
oakland(+7)overSANFRANCISCO Nonsense--SF, 17-9
TAMPABAY(+4.5)over neworleans Other weeks make this pick plausible, rather than laughable--Saints, 31-6
baltimore(+3)over NEWENGLAND Shoulda won this one--got a push instead, Pats 23-20(OT). Games like this one make me wonder how the experts can stand by their Ravens Super Bowl picks. 0-2-1 on the NFL.

October 24: pittsburgh(-3)over MIAMI I was a replay away from winning this one--Steelers 23-22.
newengland(+3)over SANDIEGO Check the stats, and you wonder how the Pats won this. I blame Norv Turner. Pats 23-20.
CAROLINA(+3)over sanfrancisco People love the 'Niners for some reason. Panthers, 23-20. Are there any 23-20 games I didn't bet on?
minnesota(+3)over GREENBAY Packers, 28-24 Pack shows they can win despite all the injuries--at least against these purple stiffs they can. 2-2 for the week. 2-4-1 on the NFL so far.

October 30-31 michiganstate(+7)over IOWA This one hurt--Hawkeyes, 37-6
pittsburgh(+1)over NEW ORLEANS Pittsburgh beat the crap out of the Saints, but turned the ball over--Saints 20-10.
OAKLAND(-3)over seattle--It pains be to be this dialed in on the crappy western teams--Oakland 33-3. Of course, with the Seahawks I just take them at home and fade them on the road.
tennessee(+4.5)over SANDIEGO I take consolation in the fact that nobody else can figure out the Chargers either. Chargers, 33-25. 1-2 on the NFL, 3-5-1 so far.

That brings us back to my Indy and Buc picks, which I aced. 5-5-1 on the NFL in the past month.

Week 9 Fantasy Musings...& Picks

2010-11-07T06:49:00.000-08:00

I need to recap my recent picks at some point, but at the moment I'm too busy trying to decide who to start at flex and at QB this week. At QB I'm debating between Matt Schaub and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At flex I'm weighing Pierre Garcon, Tampa Bay's Mike Williams, LaGarrette Blount, and really that's it. Jahvid Best, Steve Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Seattle's Mike Williams don't make the cut.

ESPN likes Pierre Garcon the most, but they don't seem to be factoring in the return of Austin Collie. Since Mike Williams is a clear #1 receiver, I'm leaning his way. LaGarrette Blount faces a Falcons defense that hasn't given up much to opposing RBs, though they've been a bit more generous with WRs; one more reason to start Williams, and pray that Jacob Tamme gets me the points that Garcon does not.

I'm leaning Fitzpatrick over Schaub. While I might not do so otherwise, I have Arian Foster and Andre Johnson starting, and playing 3 Texans makes my team way too Texan dependant. If Schaub gets a bunch of points it almost guarantees that Johnson is going off as well. On the other hand, last week Foster and Johnson got me about 60 points, while Schaub got me (or rather my bench) a whopping five.

It's sort of sad that my opponent can start a stiff like Mark Sanchez and have a good chance of outscoring me at QB. At least he hasn't noticed that Vernon Davis has a bye.

Somehow enough Eagle $$ came in to eleminate the extra Colt vig. Fine by me. I've been trying to figure out why the Eagles are favored by 3, and the only thing I can come up with is Michael Vick love. Vick is enough of a wild card that I don't mind fading him, especially getting points. indianapolis(+3)over PHILADELPHIA.

The Bucs at Falcons line opened at 8 or 8.5, and has balooned to 10. Did Josh Freeman break a leg? If so, I hope I piece this together before I start Mike Williams today.
tampabay(+10)over ATLANTA

I bounce back?

2010-10-31T09:27:00.000-07:00

Got MSU-Iowa WAY wrong, as the Hawkeyes crushed us, 37-6. On the other hand, Teddy Covers took Michigan(-3) at Penn State. Were both homer picks? Maybe, but he's supposed to be a pro, though a Michigan man.

Today I have pittsburgh(+1)over NEW ORLEANS. If the Browns defense gave the Saints fits, what will the Steelers do to them? On the other hand, this is two road games in a row for Pittsburgh, and they got lucky last week, though not lucky enough to cover for me.

OAKLAND(-3)over seattle. $$ is coming in on the Seahawks. Oakland's 59 points last week is supposed to be an abberation. Of course it is. On the other hand, Seattle's red zone offense is...offensive. That's why they had five FGs last week. And the Seahawks suck on the road.

tennessee(+4.5)over SANDIEGO. I know the Chargers are due to bounce back. I know this is a west coast trip. That still only gets me to 3, 3.5 max. The Titans seem to be fine with either QB, and Chris Johnson has an 8-game-100-yard-rushing-road-streak-going. That has to count for something.

Keep Fear Alive!

2010-10-30T04:57:00.000-07:00

I've taken michigan state(+7)over IOWA. I'd say more, but I think I'm going to the "Keep Fear Alive" rally in D.C. The game should be underway by the time the rally is over.

Weird Cowboy line

2010-10-24T05:42:00.000-07:00

No time to analyze picks--or to recap last week's picks! Here are my picks for this week. Sorry, no NCAA this week. Michigan State is still undefeated. Go Green.

pittsburgh(-3)over MIAMI
newengland(+3)over SANDIEGO
CAROLINA(+3)over sanfrancisco A sorry 'Niners team plays on the east coast, giving points? Yes please!
minnesota(+3)over GREENBAY The Packers are a mess right now. On the other hand, my fantasy opponent this week just dropped the Ol' Yogurt Slinger just yesterday, after taking him with the 5th overall pick. Maybe the Vikings are a mess right now too.

Bodog is determined to keep the Chargers-Pats line at 3, moving the Pats vig all the way to -135 to keep from moving to 2.5. No shock here, as the same thing happened with Ravens-Pats last week. Good thing too, because 3 got me a push. 2.5 and I go 1-4 for the weekend.

The part I don't get is that Dallas is favored by 3.5 over the Giants on Monday night, but rather than move the line down to 3, bodog has upped the Giants' vig to -125. This seems to indicate that they are afraid of an avalanche of Cowboy $$ if the line drops to 3, or that they are begging the public to take the Giants, because they think the Cowboys are going to cover. Weird. Usually the books don't want to move off 3, but in this case they seem to be avoiding it.

I just checked covers.com, and just about everywhere else has Dallas by 3. Not sure what bodog's deal is. Meanwhile, according to Chad Millman, my Pat and Viking picks are sucker bets...or are they? He has both of these lines at 2.5. I think at 3 I'm getting value with the better teams.

All Dogs, Mostly Road Dogs

2010-10-16T06:02:00.000-07:00

To get to Maryland from Texas you need only pass through three other states--Arkansas, Tennessee, and Virginia. The latter two take about forever to get through, and unless you choose your route carefully, you get treated to the traffic goatfuck that is Washington D.C.

Back in Tennessee, Black Francis and I were treated to some sports talk radio, Volunteer style. This consisted of about five minutes of complaining about how Ohio State's schedule was almost as hard as Boise States, followed by about 45 minutes of NASCAR talk, followed by a bunch of UT football talk. One caller had an insane stutter, which rendered him unintelligible about every third word. I was extremely impressed by the host, as he answered multiple questions from his guest, none of which I could understand. No idea how he pulled this off.

I ended up 3-2 last weekend, including 2-1 on the NCAA, and 0-1 on my own pick, though I'll take partial credit for betting Washington, since I think the 'Skins are still underrated, and I've been looking to bet them.

I won on Michigan State(+4.5)34, Michigan 17, Arkansas(-6)24, Texas A&M 17, and
Washington(+3)16 Green Bay 13 (OT), and lost with Stanford 37(-10) , USC 35, and Kansas City(+8.5)9, Indianapolis 19.

This week I've taken minnesota (+6)over PURDUE, paying extra vig to move the line from 5.5. Purdue has a better record, but their schedule has been cupcake heavy. These two teams tend to have an annual shootout, so the over is probably worth a look too.

In fact, the O/U is 50. I thought it was 60. Have these teams stopped scoring, or started playing defense? I'm confused.

Minny's been scoring a bunch, as usual, but Purdue's totals are down. Tread lightly.

I've also taken olemiss(+21)over ALABAMA. 'Bama may bounce back after last week's loss to the Gamecocks, but Ole Miss is coming off a bye, and last I checked they didn't suck. While their student body has knuckled under to the PC tyranny, changing their mascot last week, I still think the Rebels are a good bet.

Nebraska has moved from a 9.5 point favorite to 10 over Texas. I saw this coming, and considered taking Nebraska(-9.5) and Texas(+10), but that moment has passed. If Texas' defense is as good as advertised, now is their time to show it. Nebraska wants to put their stamp on their departure to the Big 10(+2) by spanking the 'Horns in their final conference matchup. While I normally would root for Texas here, this time I'm pro-Nebraska, for the greater glory of the Big 10(+2).

Speaking of the Big 10(+2), Michigan State is 2-0 in conference, 6-0 overall, and doesn't have to play Ohio State this year. I don't want to jinx anything, but MSU has already beaten Wisconsin, widely considered to be the best team on their schedule, and if the Badgers can beat the Buckeyes(-4) at home today, the Big 10(+2) is wide open. Draw your own conclusions.

ESPN is looking at a letdown for Michigan State(-7) against Illinois. Great. Go Green. As long as they letdown but win, I don't care.

San Francisco is favored by 7 against Oakland. Not sure why.
oakland(+7)overSANFRANCISCO. Everyone seems determined to win some money on the 'Niners' bounce. I think the chance that they bounce and win by 4 or so is significant.

I'm not drinking the Buc's Kool-Aid, but I'm not drinking the Saint Kool-Aid either. New Orleans has fluctuated between a 5 and 4 point favorite on the road. Right now it's 4.5. That's enough for me. TAMPABAY(+4.5)over neworleans.

Bodog has the Raven vig running wild to keep it at 3. Not sure how much lower this would be if they let the line move. The Pats are Mossless, Ray Rice finally went wild last week...I'd be terrified to take the Pats, (like I did last year in the playoffs--oops) but I'm not sure about fading them either. I feel like this game is destined to make me feel stupid. The last time the Ravens drew a huge vig on the road (that I recall) was at San Diego last year. They won that one. baltimore(+3)over NEWENGLAND.

Hog Heaven, The Old _________slinger rides again!

2010-10-11T04:59:00.000-07:00

Black Francis and I are about a third of the way to the US Army Propaganda School, a hop, skip and jump from NSA headquarters. We are more like a hop and skip from Little Rock, Arkansas, and I have never seen so many cars festooned with Razorback stickers (mostly trucks & SUVs) in my life.* I thought Texas was Horn happy. These people are HOG happy. Of course, many of them are probably returning from Cowboy stadium, where their Hogs beat the Aggies, 24-17. Since they covered the ultimate 6 point spread, I'm Hog happy too.

Me and Francis stopped at a Buffalo Wild Wings a bit before Little Rock, to watch the Cowboys lose. I had a drink called a Saucy Mary without asking what the ingredients were, figuring a wing place would be using extra hot sauce. Negative. This was like drinking BBQ sauce. Somewhat watered down BBQ sauce, but still. My burger had BBQ sauce on it as well. Maybe I should read the ingredients for the Big Daddy Jack Burger before ordering that as well.

Speaking of Big Daddy Jack, the Old Gunslinger is facing some sort of possible suspension for texting pictures of the Old Yogurtslinger to a NY Jets employee back in '08, when he was a NY Jets employee. I can't believe a sports / news junky like myself let this story get this far without me knowing about it. On the other hand, it seems like the press is trying to get this story to peak right when the Vikings play thet Jets, so Tony Kornheiser has something to talk about during the broadcast. Would they do something like that?

Brett Favre made sure to ice his elbow during a press conference earlier this week, so he would have an excuse if he sucks Monday Night. What he failed to mention was that this was a recurring injury from wacking off two years ago.** The NFL is making noises like Favre could be suspended before the Monday Night game. It's Monday moring now. Why the hurry all of a sudden. That scared of the NY Post?

Now I understand the what Fantasy Football teams named Favre Dollar Footlongs were going for. I'm considering renaming one of my teams the Old Yogurtslinger in Bretts honor. Let me know what you think of this.

*My favorite was one that said Woooooo Hog Soooooooeeeeee!!!! that covered most of the back of an SUV window, and a personalized plate on a Mercedes SUV that simply proclaimed WOOOOOOOOO.

**Apparently one of his photo texts included a message that he was mastrubating while wearing Crocs. I can't believe this pick up line never occurred to me. Back when I was texting pictures of my wang to get laid, I mean.

Michigan Wolverines Suck

2010-10-06T18:46:00.000-07:00

Last week I evened up my record for the season. After Ole Miss got me to 1-0 on the NCAA, washington(+6.5) beat PHILADELPHIA outright, 17-12, injuring Michael Vick along the way. SANDIEGO(-9) laid the smack down on arizona, 41-10. My only blemish was chicago(+4) losing to NYGIANTS, 17-3. I was worried about the Giants bouncing back, but if they don't give Jay Cutler a concussion just before the half, this could have come out differently, so I still feel okay about this pick. Not great, but okay.

The only line I've jumped on early this week so far is
kansas city(+8.5)over INDIANAPOLIS. Apparently I'm not alone, as the line has dropped to 7.5. Bodog still had the line at 8 a half hour ago or so. I initially fet a little iffy about this, as Indy is capable of a blowout, especially at home, and with my KC fantasy interests I may be vulnerable to some of their 3-0 Kool-Aid. On the other hand, Indy's defense would seem to give Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles a nice chance to run wild as long as the game is close, and 8.5 is a lot to give for a team that hasn't been terribly consistent.

..................................

Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week on Behind the Bets likes KC, same as I do, while Colin Cowherd likes Indy in his Sizzlin' 7. When I've tuned into him, Colin's 7 have been notoriously inaccurate. He argues his points well, but he tends to end up picking what should happen, rather than what actually happens. Essentially this means he picks alot of favorites, where the smart maney is looking to bet underdogs.

Millman's guy also likes michigan state(+4.5)over MICHIGAN, considering Michigan to be a one-man team (I agree) and State to be a step up in class defensively (not so sure about this). Bodog's vig also indicates that money is coming in on the dog. I generally stay away from games where I care too much about the outcome, and 5-0 State at 5-0 Michigan is as big a game as I can remember for the Green and White. Neither team has really done anything yet, but right now we both can hope for the kind of season neither deserves to expect.

Hope springs eternal. Actually hope will be cut off at the knees for one of these teams sometime Saturday evening, and probably for the other in another week or two. Hope is destined for the trash heap. Hope is fucked.

In any case, I am following Millman's guy in taking State and the points, though I do like to take more than a FG in rivalry games, and 4.5 is gravy. Check my Michigan-ND pick if you'd like an example of this.

Not sure why Florida is favored by 6.5 over LSU, (it was 7.5) or why Georgia is favored by 11 over Tennessee. Does Vegas hate both LSU and the Vols for their weird ending last week? I may have to consult with Mike B. on these games. Anytime you feel like Mike B. could help you get a handle on a game, you may want to stay away from it.

Otherwise, I've taken WASHINGTON(+3)over greenbay. While I'm a little concerned the 'Skins could be in for a letdown after their big win at Phily last week, but the Packer running game is Aaron Rodgers running around end and diving out of bounds, and their defense is not as good as advertised. I'm hardly the only one taking Washington here, though most places you can only get (+2.5), so I'm also getting a really good price.

Still thinking about sandiego(-6)at OAKLAND. I'm all about the home dogs, but
Darren McFadden is out, and the Raiders suck against the run. At some point the Chargers should stop disappointing every other week and go on a sick run. Maybe this is the week. Maybe last week was the week, when they trounced Arizona. No, they need to kick ass on the road to go on their run. It looks like I may start Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert on one of my fantasy teams, while I am playing against Philip Rivers in another, for whatever that's worth. I could start Malcom Floyd in the game vs. Rivers, but if his production keeps going to Antonio Gates that won't help me.

..........................................

Chad Millman's wiseguy of the week likes Arkansas over Texas A&M. Apparently there has been a ton of action on this game, or at least a ton of line movement. Sal says this line opened at 6.5, moved up to 8.5, then came down to 5.5, as two rival syndicates with rival opinions took turns betting the shit out of the line.

Arkansas had a nice lead on National Champion Alabama two weeks ago, so I have no problem buying into the Razorback hype--they're good. The Aggies similarly failed to hold a lead vs. Oklahoma State last week, ultimately losing a 38-35 shootout. The Aggies and Cowboys seemed determined to demonstrate that defense is not a priority in the Big XII(-2). They succeeded. Arkansas may be able to show them how the SEC plays defense, but they'll be doing it in Texas...BUT not in College Station. This game is in the Cowboys Stadium, 3 1/2 hours away in Dallas. The Cotton Bowl is 6 hours from the University of Arkansas. Will Texas A&M's 12th Man be effective in Dallas? Not as much as in College Station, I suspect, though that new stadium may do a solid job of holding in the noise. Saw Pacquiao-Clottey there, and that place is BADASS. arkansas(-6)over TEXAS A&M.

Covers.com's Teddy Covers likes Stanford to cover 9.5 points en route to beating the Trojans of USC this week. Where some see a revenge game for 'SC, Teddy sees a program in decline that couldn't revenge their way out of a wet paper bag. Unfortunately for me, this line has moved to 10. So be it. STANFORD(-10)over usc.

Incidentally, Teddy is a University of Michigan grad. While I am following him on his Stanford pick, I made sure to talk smack to him on Covers.com's Facebook Page.

Last Saturday there was a Michigan flag up around the corner from me. I'd go vandalize it today, but I'm pretty busy...and it's light out. That would make 3 in the last year.

Only one original pick from me this week...so far. There's still time for some more NFL action, if I can make up my mind.

Michigan State pushes Texas aside

2010-10-03T02:40:00.000-07:00

Took SANDIEGO(-9)over arizona a few minutes ago. This line was 8 before (and may have been 7) but if you're willing to give 8, why not 9? The Chargers like to flip between losses or unimpressive wins one week, and utter destruction of the enemy the next. They're at home, and 'Zona is shaky as fuck.

Ole Miss came through for me over Kentucky, 43-35, covering the 3. I thought the SEC played defense.

'Bama does. They CRUSHED Florida, 31-6. Michigan State pleasantly surprised me by beating Wisconsin by ten. Michigan won, but failed to cover. Glad I didn't bet them. Michigan & State go into their game next week with both of them 5-0. I don't remember the last time that happened. The '60's?

Me and Pennsyltucky Dave watched these and more today, including OU over Texas, Notre Dame over BC (ugh) and Iowa taking down Penn State. We started out at Texas Roadhouse, where MSU-Wisconsin took over the center screen, pushing the Red River shootout off to a side TV, after some amusing remote contol politics. After the (Michigan) State win we moved over to Pluckers to watch (Penn) State lose. Dave was remarkably congenial about the loss. Maybe the six TV screens distracted him, or the Roll Tide Roll guy. Watching 5 other games at the same time definitely helped me absorb the BC loss. That and I already knew they sucked. Eventually Black Francis joined us at Pluckers, and we watched him try to impress women with his Pluckers Gold Card. F-Train told us he is 50 points from lifetime access to the Pluckers V.I.P. lounge. Pluck yeah.

I need to rack out now. Me and Black Francis are catching the NFL lineup tomorrow. This weekend football schedule is brutal.

Slope Politics, Lustful Hearts

2010-10-02T00:06:00.001-07:00

Eventful week in the Bunny Slope League, as the Camden Convicts, aka The Artists formerly known as the Cove Romosexuals, run by the ever so shady (as only a Cowboy fan from Jersey can be) F-Train, aka Frank the Tank, aka Black Francis, tried to turn the Blue Falcons into the Florida Convicts, engineering a lopsided trade of Ronnie Brown and Mike Sims-Walker for Ray Rice and Randy Moss. As the most biased commissioner since Bud Selig, I raised my Iron Fist and Velvet glove, and did my best impersonation of LBJ getting shit done when he ran the senate. I did my best to wrangle up eight votes to veto the trade before the ten-something a.m. Friday deadline, though sometime Thursday night I figured out that the trade had been successfully vetoed, and that it only took four votes to veto a trade.

I think Mike B. told me the same thing earlier that day, but I didn't follow, owing to his Tennessee/North Florida accent and what-not.

I suppose not knowing the league rules is one more thing I have in common with Bud Selig. On the other hand, successfully killing this trade before the Camden Convicts turned 2010 Bunny Slope into a re-enactment of Season I of Oz may be my proudest moment, since my most brilliant draft picks can be largely chalked up to luck.

Weirdly enough, the boTTomfEEders are playing F.I.N.D. (the quasi-illiterately named Fighting Irish Notre Dame) the same weekend that the real Fighting Irish take on the Boston College Screaming Showers...I mean Golden Eagles. Not the best timing, since the premiere Jesuit gridiron powerhouse in the world sucks this year. Wheras Notre Dame only appears to suck. Their 1-3 record masks a fair degree of competence...just like mine on the NFL last week. Right?

Thats my rose-tinted take on it anyway.

Bottom line is Pugilant Mick will be talking even more trash than usual if ND beats BC. If? More like when. At least I have Michigan State's sick fake field goal OT win over the Irish to hang my hat on. Even if our coach was driven to a late night heart attack by the intense victory. On the Bunny Slope, the boTTomfEEders are heavy favorites, despite half the team limping around on crutches, because we are that BADASS...and because Adrian Peterson has a bye.

Where was I? Oh yeah. In Big Ten(11) action, Denard Robinson's freakishly good start to the season has me considering things that will make me feel dirty afterwards. Like giving ten points at Indiana and betting the Wolverines. Denard Robinson managed to get himself injured last week, but backup Tate Forcier rose up, picked the splinters out of the back of his shapely Maize leggings, and generally kicked ass, so even if Robinson gets reinjured the Wolverines should be in good hands...other than they don't play a lick of defense.

No, you shouldn't bet the Wolverines this weekend, no matter how much you disrespect the Indiana Hoosiers. After all, the Bible told Christine O'Donnell that you shouldn't have lust in your hearts, and how can you bet the Wolverines without lust?

Michigan State is about to go get beat by Wisconsin. The Spartans have already shown that they can't stop the pass. This is their chance to show that they can't stop the run either. These Badgers are power-running fools, to the tune of two point favorites in East Lansing.

Two more games I'm avoiding despite their importance are Texas-Oklahoma(-3.5) and Florida at Alabama(-8). The Red River Shootout is played every year in the Cotton Bowl, which is to say, south of the Red River. This is the chance for Okies to come South and blow some of the cash that legions of Texans dump in the Indian Casinos every weekend, since there's nowhere else to gamble legally...other than Louisiana, of course. Texans celebrate this invasion by telling each other Okie jokes, which are sort of like Redneck jokes, except they all assume or imply that Texas is sophisticated.

Compared to Oklahoma at least.

I can't lay 8 points with the Crimson Tide without lust in my heart, so I'm not going to do it. '09 Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram is healthy again, and running over people left and right, making his felonious father proud as he watches his games on a flat screen in Federal Lockup. Don't counterfeit US Currency, kids. Only the government can print money. Can they ever. Mark Ingram Senior is a Michigan State alum, but he took "Go Green" the wrong way.

Speaking of criminals, Mississippi and their new criminal QB got 'er done last week, putting the hurt on Fresno State, 55-38, and teaching Oregon that they should cut star players some slack--even if they like to boost TVs from their classmates dorm rooms. I love
OLE MISS(-3)over kentucky, and I'm betting it. Love, not lust. So it's okay.

Speaking of lust, there's a push to get rid of the Colonel, Ole Misses Confederate mascot, because it could give recruits the wrong idea about the school, and possibly encourage them to go to Mississippi State or LSU. Where was I? Lust. Since the movie The Blind Side made people outside of the deep south aware that they play football in Mississippi, the school is in the spotlight, along with their politically incorrect mascot. Apparently you're required to have an opinion about this stuff down there, especially if you are Michael Oher's hot cheerleader sister, because she is on record as anti-Colonel. ESPN has shown spoofed the issue, recommending Admiral Akbar from Star Wars, though whether this is intended to bring about change we can believe in, or prop up the old order is anybody's guess.

At least Gerard Butler isn't campaigning to get rid of Sparty, though nobody is sure why. The Spartans had slaves, so Sparty is just as likely as the Colonel to have once been a slaveholder, not to mention a possible warmongering pedophile. Repeatedly voted Most Buff Mascot, Sparty has never tested positive for sterroids, but the University has turned a blind eye to bulging biceps and backne before. Don't ask, don't tell. Maybe the Colonel needs some giant foam muscles, so criticism will bounce off of him.

Anyway, lotsa games tomorrow. Looks like me and Pennsyltucky Dave are going to watch a few of them.

After that comes Sunday, when me and Black Francis will catch some NFL, and probably put down some hot wings. After all, he is electronically tethered to Pluckers as part of the deal that got him in hock to them for his soul, now three or four times over. The vig is still running, of course, and by Monday he will probably owe almost enough soul to fill one of those 46 oz. beer mugs. Of course, the cruelest twist is that the hot sauce they said they'd name after him is really named after a different Frank.

I'm looking forward to the Ravens at Steelers game, which opened at Pittsburgh(-1.5), but is now up to PITT(-2). The Camden Convicts have alot riding on that game, since the Anaheim franchise is owned by a huge Steeler homer who owns half their team. Despite the Steelers' 3-0 start without Ben Roethlisberger, Anaheim is 0-3...also without Big Ben.

In a game between teams the F-Train hates, I have
washington(+7)over PHILADELPHIA. This line is now down to 6. Apparently Vegas figured the public will be drinking the Eagle Kool-Aid to the tune of a touchdown. Since the line dropped a bit, I must not be the only one who believes Donovan McNabb will be ultra-motivated to make sure his team only loses by 3 or 4.

Speaking of teams the F-Train hates, I also have chicago(+4)over NYGIANTS. While this looks like a classic letdown game for the Bears after Monday night's win over Green Bay, and a must-win bounce-back kind of game for the Giants, the Giants looked completely lost last week. They have alot to bounce back from. Bear action has dropped this line to 3.5. Vegas seems to be begging us to take Chicago, and we have. Now we'll see if this is a trap, or if the line really should be 1.5 or 2 like I'd guessed.

Linked up with somebody I hadn't heard from in about 16 years yesterday. I'd figured he was dead. He then informed me that while he was alive, another associate of ours had died, though only a month ago or so. Suicide. These developments are almost as Soap-Opera-ish as the Bunny Slope. Anyway, out of a lack of creativity, I will probably call him N-Dog, or N-Train, or N-Trail is this space, so consider yourself warned.

I'm not crazy about laying big points, but Arizona burned me when I took the points with them vs. Atlanta, so SANDIEGO(-9)over arizona. Hopefully the Chargers kick some ass. If Malcom Floyd gets me some fantasy points along the way I wouldn't complain about that either.

Line Shopping & Aftermath

2010-09-26T19:12:00.000-07:00

I waited until gametime in hopes that the Lions-Vikings line on bodog would catch up with it's movement elsewhere. It did. Sometime between 6 am and noon the line moved from Minnesota by 11 to Minnesota by 12.5. I paid the extra vig to get
detroit(+13)over MINNESOTA. Unfortunately, Detroit contibuted to my demise with two picks from inside the Vikings ten and lost, 24-10. I slumed my way to 1-3 on the NFL for the weekend, and 2-4 overall. The Chiefs were my only cover, as they easily won outright as a home dog over the hapless 49ers. Other than the fact that they're in the NFC West, I'd guess that this will be the last time the Niners give points on the road for a while. God that division sucks.

Reprobate gets me split / Ruminations on the NFL

2010-09-25T20:42:00.000-07:00

A late TD got called back, so Stanford beat Notre Dame 37-14, covering the 5 point spread (and my teased (+1.5), but missing my teased OVER(53.5) by 2.5 points. Shoulda bet Stanford straight up. Shoulda woulda coulda.

Jeremiah Masoli (aka that rebrobate transfer QB) led Ole Miss to a 55-38 win over Fresno State. I'm not sure how much credit the delinquent star deserves. He went 8 for 12 for 153 yards and 2 TDs, and ran for another 59 yards on 8 carries. At the moment I can see his appeal. Ole Miss wins a game, and I win $$. We'll see how he does against 'Bama and LSU.

Either way, lets not pretend that Mississippi sold it's soul when Houston Nutt decided to take a flier on Masoli. Winning is everything in the NCAA, especially in the SEC, where they don't have as much in the way of academic standards to confuse issues.

According to covers.com, most of the action has been on
detroit(+11)over MINNESOTA. They also say the line opened at 10.5, which may make you wonder how the number rose, if the action has been on the dog. My guess is that the initial action, probably sharp money, was on the favorite. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if sharp money has been on Detroit since the line moved, and the books just don't want to move the line back. Covers also says most of the action has been on the OVER, and they also say that has moved from 42 to 42.5. On bodog it's 43. I don't think you can count on Minnesota to fail to score against the Lions. On the other hand, they haven't put up any points yet, so I think I'll stay away from the number, but I'll take the Lions, whether the smart $$ is on them or not. Much of the above is probably me trying to convince myself that I'm betting with the sharps, and not just riding the wave of Jahvid Best hype. As a double owner of the latest fantasy stud, and a Lion fan, this homerism is hard to fight off.

After watching the Lions the last two weeks while in Michigan (and actually enjoying it, despite the losses) I'm tempted to head to Pluckers if I can't find the game on TV. Why? Because I'd like to see Ndamukung Suh take Brett Favre's head off. Check for the highlights of him taking down Michael Vick if you think this is a long shot.

Eyeing the vig, it looks like there is a chance that the line will move to 11.5, so it looks like I'll wait until tomorrow morning to bet this one.

There is hardly a more public team than the Pittsburgh Steelers, 2.5-3 point favorites at Tampa Bay. Since bodog has the larger 3 point spread, the action there is tilting towards the Bucs. The public is surely aware that one more Steeler QB got injured last week. Give me the points, and the stable QB situation. TAMPABAY(+3)over pittsburgh.

Did I say before that I was taking KANSASCITY(+3)over sanfrancisco? Well I am. And fuck Todd Haley in advance when he screws me with his coaching stupidity. Can I trust the 'Niners to blow a must win game? Do they still have must win games in the NFC West?

I've checked elsewhere, and Minny is up to 11.5 and 12 most places. Not sure I'm convinced enough that the Vikings suck to take a worse price than everywhere else. I'll probably end up betting this one at the last minute because I can't help myself.

dallas(+3)over HOUSTON looks pretty obvious, as in the NFC East they still have must win games. On the other hand, my fantasy team is loaded with Texans. It's probably telling that I'm more reluctant to bet a game where I have fantasy interests than on the Lions. On the other hand, three is a big number. I might bet this game if I was getting 3.5.

Week 3 Picks / Bottomfeeding on the Bunny Slope

2010-09-24T16:01:00.000-07:00

Well, Nevada went ahead and showed me why they were only a 3 point dog, laying down the proverbial smack on the visiting Cal Golden Bears, 52-31. While they failed to impress the way I'd hoped, Kansas State saved my college weekend, beating visiting Iowa State 27-20, as well as the four point spread. This game ended perfectly for me. The Wildcats trailed 20-17 in the 4th quarter, but got a TD for the 24-20 push, then stopped the Cyclones and got a late field goal to cover.

In NFL action, I went 2-2. I completely botched the Falcons-Cardnails game, as Atlanta easily covered the 7 points, 41-7. At this point I'm 0-2 on Falcons games, and I think I need to stay away from atlanta(+4)at NEW ORLEANS. I keep hearing that there's something rotten in New Orleans, but the Saints won several games last year in less than convincing fashion, so getting outgained but winning the turnover battle in SF seems about par for the course to me. Incidentally, I'm in the process of cutting my fantasy ties to the champs, as I managed to trade off Marques Colston and Thomas Jones to Pugilant Mick for Calvin Johnson and C.J. Spiller. As long as my starters stay healthy and are productive and C.J. continues to back up Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, I've slightly upgraded at WR and downgraded my bench. Since I drafted Jones as a quasi-handcuff for Jamaal Charles, and Jones is getting 60% of Chief carries so far, this trade arguably weakens the structure of my team, but right now Malcom Floyd, Mark Clayton, and Demaryius Thomas are shaping up as solid flex plays should I need to resort to a 3WR lineup if Charles fails to produce. I prefer to go 3RB, but since Bunny Slope is a PPR league I think I can get away with it if I run out of RB production. Oh yeah, and Mike Williams...the rookie, not the washed up ex-Lion.

If this trade works out, it will be a quintessential example of the roQQ boTTomfEEders...well, bottomfeeding. The rich get richer. The poor get left behind. Even the poor, inbred Fighting Irish. Especially them.

Actually this trade probably made them better. Why go 1-6 waiting for the emergence of C.J. Spiller? I fully expect Mike B. and the other haters to attack the trade as unfair, just because they don't want to go up against my starting lineup. Can't say I blame them. I wouldn't want to take me on either. The Cove Romosexuals were so devastated by their week one loss that they changed their name to the Camden Convicts.

(I'm sure this wasn't the real reason for the name change. After all, my other boTTomfEEders beat the other Romosexuals in the other league last week, and they are still Romosexuals. Beat them like a gong.)

While Todd Haley may be ruining fantasy seasons everywhere with his ill-advised underuse of Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are now 2-0, as they beat the Brown out of the Browns 16-14 by the lake last week, winning outright as 3 point road dogs. This week they are 3 point home dogs to the 49ers. I don't know whether to take the points, or to hope the Niners get a lead and stuff the run, forcing the Chiefs to open up their offense and throw to Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. I don't see this team trying to develop offensively unless they are forced to. Sort of like the Jets, though San Francisco presents a slightly less daunting challenge than New England. I've been rooting for Kansas City, since I expected that them winning would help the prospects of the Chiefs on my fantasy teams. At this point I expect losing might give Todd Haley a better chance of shaking his stupidity. Given the Murphy's Lawish implications, that makes me lean KANSASCITY(+3)over sanfrancisco, though this game is a must win for the 'Niners, or would be if the NFC West wasn't historically bad.

Speaking of the Jets, (I just was, I swear) word has it that the smart $$ is fading New York, fresh of their 28-14 win and cover over 3 point road favorite New England (I lost), in favor of Miami, fresh off their 14-10 upset win over the 6 point favorite Vikings (I won). The pick is MIAMI(-2)over nyjets. Apparently the wiseguys expect money to pour in on the Jets this weekend. If I can get a better price I may take the Fins again. This game opened as Dolphins(-1) or a pick. I'm not counting on the number going back down.

........................

It's Saturday, so let me pause to get some $$ down on some college games, before I continue my ruminations on the NFL.

I've taken stanford(+1.5)over NOTREDAME, OVER 53.5. It would be more of a kick while ND is down to just take stanford(-5), but lets not get carried away. Just as I avoided taking Michigan State(-3.5) last week, since I didn't believe we were particularly good (still don't), Stanford has a history of close, but high scoring games vs. the Irish. While I like Stanford's 68-24 win over Wake Forest last week, this game is in South Bend, Notre Dame is not Wake Forest, and this is not basketball.

OLEMISS(-2)over fresnostate. My sources say the wiseguys are all over the Rebs in this one, possibly because of their new reprobate transfer QB, Mazola, or Masouli, or whatever his name is. Maybe it's the SEC dominance. Either way, this is second hand knowledge. I have no opinion about this game, despite my habit of roaming around in Rebel gear for no reason at all, something I'll need to discuss at some point.

Looks like I was right to not wait for action on the Jets to bring the line down. The line has moved from Miami(-2) to Miami(-2.5).

State beats Notre Dame, I drink Guiness, bet Chiefs

2010-09-18T23:50:00.001-07:00

Go Green! Watched Michigan State beat Notre Dame in OT on a sick fake field goal. Also watched Squatch in a best of 3 hairy backed shirtless arm-wrestling extravaganza. I took pictures, but as far as me getting them from my phone to this site--don't hold your breath.

If I do get pictures posted here you'll understand why we call him Sasquatch.

Since OT victories don't allow for unnnecessary extra points, MSU failed to cover the 3.5 point spread, 34-31. Fine with me, since I didn't bet on it. Pugilant Mick and I called each other back and forth during the game at opportune moments, and the finish was met with a typical bitter rant from the Mickster. I'd go into it further, but I've covered this ground before. I recall feeling guilty in the 4th quarter as I sucked down a Guiness-- I have no business drinking something so quintessentially Irish at such a critical moment. Had we lost I certainly would not have shared my shame here.

Since State won, and I can afford to be magnanimous, Guiness is one thing the Irish got right...like cars and freedom for we Americans...I guess.

Speaking of getting things right, I've taken kansas city(+3)over CLEVELAND. This line opened with the Browns favored by 1.5, and I'm not sure what made the line move...perhaps Jake Delhomme's apparent injury. Is Colt McCoy playing in this one? Either way, my favorite Longhorn is Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs....No, Seneca Wallace is starting as the Browns QB. Still not sure why this line isn't tighter.

My Wrangler Story

2010-09-17T09:53:00.000-07:00

I'm not about to pretend that I have a firm grasp on the good and bad teams in college football. But so far I'm a whopping 1-0 on the season. So there.

cal(-3)over NEVADA. I have no idea why Cal is only favored by three. They just dismantled Colorado 52-7, and before that they took down UC Davis, 52-3. (Not that UC Davis was up before or anything.) Not that it helps them here, but Cal has produced fantasy studs including DeSean Jackson, Jahvid Best, and Justin Forsett,* and I wouldn't be shocked if they had a couple more in the hopper. Nevada has a couple of nice wins as well, but nobody from the Big XII. (Colorado's transition to the Pac-10/12 could be painful, if their score vs. Cal is any indicator. Of course, their recent time in the Big XII/X hasn't exactly been painless either.

I'm not sure if the sports talk guys covering Texas football are just trying to hype their Big XII schedule, but they seem pretty worried about the 'Horns' trip to KState later this year. No such trepidation with the mighty Iowa State Cyclones. So I'm not sure I get why I can get
KANSAS STATE(-4)over iowa state, but I'll take it. I suspect the Longhorn worries are based on trips to Manhattan from 4 or 8 years ago, since they only play the North Division teams every other year, and they flip home and away, but I have no reason to think the Cyclones are any good.

The vig seems to have evened out on Pats at Jets to where I can't expect to get a better number on the Pats. So be it. I'm 2-0 on this series from last year, and the Jets don't look ready for prime time. new england(-3)over NYJETS.

My dogs this week are making me a bit nervous, but there are a couple of lines that I just don't get, so I think I need to try to punish Vegas. miami(+6)over MINNESOTA. I suppose a close loss to the Saints is more impressive than a close win over the Bills, but I don't see what's behind this lack of respect for the 'Fins. Or respect for the Vikings.

Speaking of the Vikings, has anyone noticed the most recent Brett Favre Wrangler ad? I don't even remember how it goes, except that it ends with Brett saying, "That's my Wrangler story. What's yours?" Any ad angency that thinks it's a good idea to have Brett say "my story" has rocks in their head. We already know Favre is full of shit. Why draw attention to it? Why not have him say "That's my story and I'm sticking to it?" He has about as much credibility as Richard Nixon. No, less. At least when Nixon said we wouldn't have him to kick around any more he didn't run again for eight years.

They should do an ad where Brett throws out a worn out pair of Wranglers. Then fishes them out of the trash and washes them with his own tears. Then throws them away again. Rinse, lather, repeat. Now that's a Brett Favre Wrangler story I could buy.

I get that the Cardnails suck, but I don't see why the Falcons are favored by seven against them. I don't like taking west coast teams out east, but I don't get all the Falcon love.
arizona(+7)over ATLANTA. If the dirty birds win by 4 all these prognosticators will jizz all over themselves and favor them over the Saints next week. Wait--no they won't. Atlanta will win this game so they don't start 0-3, but putting the Cards away will be tougher than people think.

*Forsett may not qualify as a fantasy stud, but check his highlight tape. I think his day is coming, unless Pete Carroll completely mishandles his talent.

2-2--week one recap

2010-09-16T15:20:00.001-07:00

About a day after I got my bets down on the NFL last week I regretted 2 out of 3 of them. I'd forgotten that Dennis Dixon played well last year when Roofie Ben went down for a game or two. Kind of hard to give the Steelers points at home...especially if you don't believe the Falcons preseason hype.

Don't confuse this with the Falcons' preseason fantasy hype. I loooooove Michael Turner and Roddy White this year. Matt Ryan? Not so much. This may explain why I'm not buying the Falcon hype either. Not to mention that I'm not about to trust their defense until they show me they've improved.

Anyway, I got what I deserved when Rashard Mendenhall romped to a 50+ yard TD run on OT, and Pittsburgh won, 15-9. On the other hand, I was concerned about fading Phily at home, but the Packers came through and covered. Meanwhile, the road favorite I wasn't worried about lost by 10 at Houston. I'm thrilled about losing this bet, since it bodes well for my Bunny Slope fantasy team, which is Texan heavy, with four of them.

Ditto for the Chiefs Monday Night win over San Diego. I may have a bet on the Chargers winning over 10.5 this year, but between two of my teams I have Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Thomas Jones twice. I still don't think the Chiefs will be good this year, but if they are it will do wonders for my fanatasy prospects.

I had no such misgivings about my pick of Michigan(+4) over Notre Dame. Not even when I woke up at the end of the game and ND was up by 3. Fuck Michigan. On the other hand, I look better as a handicapper if the Wolverines win outright, which they did.

On to this week. The Pats at Jets line has ballooned out to Pats by 3, but it looks as if it could drop back to 2.5, so I'm waiting. The Jets may fix a few things this week, but Mark Sanchez will not be one of them. He's more of a long-term structural weakness. The Jets D seemed to spend alot of time chasing Joe Flacco, but not quite getting to him. While I see Brady doing alot of 3 step drops and dumping to Welker, Flacco moves like a statue, and the Jets stopped getting to him a bit before halftime. Have I mentioned that I don't buy the Jets hype either? I still love their defense, but Sanchez is still a liability. At least LDT looks sharp, making up for Shonn Greene's crapping of the proverbial bed Monday night. Greene needs to keep this up, to keep my Jamaal Charles pick from looking stupid. So far, so good. I could root for Ryan Matthews to suck, but I have him in one of my leagues.

Bunny Slope Draft Wrap Part 2: Evil Cowboys Still Stay Blue Bottomed

2010-09-08T20:25:00.000-07:00

I meant to have part two of my Bunny Slope Fantasy Football Draft review done by now. Lets see if I can bang this thing out.

Meanwhile, in the last couple of days I've bet a slate of road favorites:
greenbay(-3)over PHILADELPHIA, atlanta(-3)over pittsburgh, and
indianapolis(-2.5)over HOUSTON. I was swayed by a covers.com article that said road favorites in week one were 14-9 over the last few years. Right now I only feel good about the Indy pick. I forgot that Dennis Dixon played pretty well the last time Ben Roethlisberger went down...er, got hurt, and my Packer pick is basically a guess that Green Bay gets off to a fast start, while Phily has some growing pains with their new QB. Is this guess enough to justify giving the Eagles 3 at the Link? I have my doubts.

Bill Simmons the Sports Guy thinks you should give teams your own power ratings before the season starts, and then stick to your guns when betting. This will only be good advice if your power ratings happen to be accurate, and lead you to make winning bets. Otherwise, he is recommending stubbornness whether you are winning or not, only good advice if you happen to be right.

As much sense as my story arcs for the Eagles and Packers may make, and as much hype as the Pack is getting,

a.) this arc still probably doesn't justify this line, and

b.) the smart mony will probably get made fading whatever story arcs end up defining this season.

Meanwhile, I've taken michigan(+4)over NOTRE DAME. As much as I would like to see Michigan lose, so as to get Rich Rodriguez fired before he can right the ship, the few highlights I saw of the new Wolverine QB were pretty damn impressive. From what I heard in the pregame, beating UConn was a more impressive feat than beating Purdue, and U-M beat them by a greater margin. Given how close Michigan-Notre Dame has been lately, I like taking the underdog any time they are getting more than 3 as well (heck--more than 2.5), so all the stars are aligned for me to take the hated Wolverines, if not for them to actually cover.

Back to the Bunny Slope. Evil Robot Army had the 7th pick, and managed to avoid embarrasing himself, for the most part. I've been in a Fantasy Baseball league with him this year, and he has the best record in the league by a large margin, despite being a heavy Atlanta Brave homer. After he took Michael Turner in the first round (perfectly legit at 7th, despite the possible homerism) I expected him to take Roddy White in the 2nd, but White lasted all the way to the beginning of the 3rd round, after Evil Robot Army enlisted Ryan Grant. I would probably prefer the Falcons' top WR, since I'm not a big Ryan Grant guy, and since ERA isn't averse to loading up with players from the same team. I'm also not crazy about Philip Rivers with the 31st pick, though if ERA waited 'til the 4th round he probably doesn't get an elite QB. If he must draft that early, I'd prefer Matt Schaub or Tony Romo. Vincent Jackson's suspension and holdout may not hurt Rivers too much, but it drops him below Romo for me. My doubts concerning the Cowboy running game reinforces my opinion. Last year LaDanian Tomlinson believers downgraded Rivers since they thought the Chargers would go back to being a running team. I did not, since you could stick a fork in the former fantasy stud. While rookie Ryan Matthews may not turn the Chargers back into a running team, he at least isn't washed up. (What rookies are washed up?--besides Glenn Coffee, I mean...)

Chad Ochocinco became an Evil Robot in the 4th round. While there is nothing crazy about this pick, 85 is another guy I don't particularly care for. His big mistake came in the 5ht, however, when the Evil Robot Commander took Vincent Jackson, not realizing that he may miss the first 11 weeks or so. Other than wasting an 8th round pick on Atlanta QB Matt Ryan, I don't think he made any more mistakes. I feel like I'm nitpicking this team, but after the way he dominated our baseball league I guess I expected more.

Florida Blue Falcons picked 8th, and waited until about the last ten seconds or so before taking Ray Rice. The Bluebirds are run by perhaps the most football ignorant person I know, and I'm including my pinay wife and Ben Fox. I've dropped anchor over some serious depths of ignorance lately, savy? Anyway, Blue Falcon respected her own ignorance, and when in doubt tended to take the top player on the board. This sensible approach netted her Rice, Randy Moss, Jonathan Stewart, and Tony Romo in the first 4 rounds. This is pretty damn solid, despite possible injury issues with Stewart, as well as with her 6th round pick, Patriot WR Wes Welker. Still, everyone takes on some injury risk, and I got stuck with Welker two rounds earlier in my other draft, where he's not worth as much, since the other league isn't PPR, so what the heck. Welker is a PPR stud, until he blows out one of his legs at least. Depending on how a couple of risky picks pan out, this could end up being the best team in the league, on the draft, at least.

My team, the roQQ boTTomfEEders, picked 9th. I was hoping the Blue Falcons would let Ray Rice fall to me with the 9th pick, and was disappointed enough by how close I came that I went ahead and took Andre Johnson, despite two more stud RBs sitting there, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. While taking a top WR this early is certainly a legitimate strategy, I must admit that my decision was colored by my disappoitment at not getting Ray Rice, and by my desire to reach for Jamaal Charles with the 16th pick in the next round. Charles has been getting drafted between 25th and 33rd in most drafts, leaving me with a tiny chance of getting him in the 3rd round. Since I got stuck with the 9th pick in both of my drafts, I would need to take him early or probably not get him at all. The last WR I really wanted, DeSean Jackson, went 29th, so I settled for Marques Colston with the 33rd pick. After him went Greg Jennings and both Steve Smiths. I consider Colston and Jennings to be very similar players, since they are both on high powered offenses with enough weapons to get overlooked sometimes. If this hadn't burned me last year when I had Jennings I probably would have taken him over Colston. I got Matt Schaub in the 4th, where I'm used to getting Romo or Rivers. Schaub is usually gone by then. Then Blue Falcon took Romo, in essence Blue Falconing the Romosexuals, leading them to hang Joe Flacco in their closet in the 7th round.

I got Jahvid Best in the 5th round, only reaching about 4 spots to get him, and Arian Foster in the 6th. These, along with Jamaal Charles, could end up being pretty risky picks, though I would argue that most of the backs going in the second round are more unproven than Charles, or are significant injury risks. Jahvid Best is a pretty big injury risk as well, but so are Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Ricky Williams, and they have more competition for carries, and arguably less upside. I got Arian Foster 64th, which beats the hell out of getting him 30th, like in my other draft.

I was pretty happy with my bench, until Montario Hardesty ended up on crutches the next day, and the Chargers picked up Patrik Clayton, who could endup giving Malcom Floyd significant competition. Otherwise, I hedged some of my risk by picking up the handcuffs for Charles and Best. Anytime you can pick up half the offense for the Lions and Chiefs you have to do it, right?

The 10th pick belonged to the Pittsburgh Stillers. I'd talk bad about the Stiller draft, but their owner is my boss, so....

Cedric Benson went 10th. This is way too soon for him especially with Gore and Jackson still on the board, not to mention DeAngelo Williams. My boss is not the only Stiller supporter scarred by Cedric Benson last year. I think he won comeback player of the year, despite Brett Favre winning comeback player of the month 3 or 4 times in the offseason. If not he should have.

Tom Brady at 15 is a little bit of a reach, though I reached a few spots more for Jamaal Charles, so what the heck. (Is Jamaal Charles my 2010 man-crush of the year? Perhaps.) Knowshon Moreno at 34 is fine...as long as his hamstrings hold up. I made sure I let my boss know about this...right after he took him. Steve Smith in the 4th? I like this better than Chad 85, or Anquan Boldin, the next two to go.

He got Percy Harvin in the 5th Round, and Jason Witten in the 6th. Harvin could be a steal this late, if his migranes clear up. Jason Witten is too good of a blocker to catch passes in the red zone. Great all around player, but this hurts his fantasy value. I'm down in him because I had him last year, and I was dumb enough to take him in the 4th. Much better to take him here.

The 11th and 12th picks went to Jacksonville Stay Hungry, and PR Cowboys. Stay Hungry was a Twisted Sister album back in about '82. Not sure Mike B. is aware of this. I think I saw a PR Cowboy in a New York leather bar, but these days he could have been Dominican. They're hard to tell apart when they're not driving something festooned with their national colors.

Anyway, these guys were both on autopick, though Mike B. may have at least set his board for autopick beforehand. I won't waste time criticizing picks made by autopick since

a.) there was no decisionmaking to critique, and

b.) these teams are probably better than the teams that got picked by conscious, breathing humans (except for Blue Falcon, who doesn't count...though if you've ever watched Dollhouse, and if you ever thought it would be worth 15 large or so to hire some programmers to drop the soul of some fantasy guru into Eliza Dushku, and then invite her to your fantasy draft, you may have some idea how Blue Falcons draft went. Not that you would ever think something like that, or anything....)

Stay Hungry got Larry Fitzgerald with his first round pick...second year in a row, both times on autopick. This year he was working...last year he was drunk. He followed up with Drew Brees, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Ricky Williams, and Donald Driver. Second year in a row he got Ricky Williams on autopick, though last year, he was drunk. Overall I think his team may have been better last year. It just seems like Ricky will take a step back, and LFitz might too, if Derek Anderson has anything to say about it. On the other hand, Drew Brees, who Mike B. & I interviewed last year hasn't been suspended for fingerbanging some broad with a blood-roofie content level of .10 in some bathroom stall. Of course, last year neither had Big Ben. He was still endorsing Big Ben's Beef Jerky back then.

PR Cowboy got Frank Gore and Steven Jackson with the 12th & 13th picks. Total steals. Steve Smith and Greg Jennings with the wrap in the 3rd & 4th? Can't complain...yet. Vernon Davis & Dwayne Bowe in the 5th and 6th? Davis is a stud TE. I got Bowe about here in my other league. If there is complaining to do about Bowe, I'll make sure it happens. For some reason autopick waited until the 14th round to take Matthew Stafford. If autopick had filled out his roster position by position, I think he should have gotten Matt Ryan in the 8th, but who am I to doubt autopick...or Eliza Dushku possessed by Matthew Berry? As a Lions fan, I hope Matthew Stafford has a great year. As a Jahvid Best owner in two leagues, I hope all Stafford's TD passes go to Best. As the owner of the boTTomfEEders, I hope he crashes and burns, since I'm not sure this team has any other weaknesses. Other than Steven Jackson's surgically repaired back. Or Steve Smith's broken arm. Or Dwayne Bowe's thick skull. Or the crappy QBs who throw to Davis, Smith and Bowe...

Okay, I feel better about my chances vs the PR Cowboys now.

Not sure I'll bother to recap any of the games. If I do, I'll be sure to be insulting. Whatever the outcome, the Romosexuals at the boTTomfEEders should generate an interesting headline.

Fantasy draft recap

2010-09-03T14:34:00.000-07:00

Egad. My most recent post ended up in the wrong blog. Since Blogger is apparently too primitive to let me copy and paste it all, here is a link to it....or not, links don't seem to be working either.

Just go to twomenout.com and go to the 3 September post.

NFL Over/Unders

2010-07-28T19:44:00.000-07:00

I've been checking out the total win props for the NFL, and right now I'm looking at
San Diego OVER 11 (+105). The UNDER is (-135), and I don't see why $$ is coming in on it. The Chargers get to play 12 games against the AFC West and NFC West. I can see them going 10-2 against these stiffs. Ladanian Tomlinson's departure probably makes them better,* and I suspect Vincent Jackson will sign in the end...not sure if VJax is a big factor with this number or not.

ESPN has the Chargers at #10 on their power ratings. While the reasoning behind their rankings is often strained, I agree with their assessment. On the other hand, San Diego joins the Colts as the only teams with an O/U of 11. I agree with this as well, based on their creampuff schedule. The Colts, by the way, were the only team whose total I bet last year. I think I took over 11, though it may have been 10.5. Came out better than my bet on the Pats to win the Super Bowl at 4/1.

Meanwhile, $$ on Minnesota has driven Vikings OVER 9.5 to (-140). I think their number would be higher, other than the continual Brett Favre retirement saga dampens it a bit. Apparently I'm not alone. On the other hand, the Vikes get to play the NFC East & AFC East, so their schedule is pretty tough. I still see them winning 10 games, but they have the Saints, Jets, Pats, Redskins, and Eagles on the road. Pretty nasty.

*Or Ryan Matthews makes them better. They may have an actual running game this year.

If I say I'm riding "die Mannschaft," does that make me gay?

2010-07-04T09:53:00.000-07:00

I took Germany(+230) over Argentina yesterday. I didn't mention it here, but I did post on covers.com's facebook. Germany scored their first goal about three minutes in, and when Argentina became more desperate in the second half, die Mannschaft proceeded to crack their defense like a nut for three more goals.

4-nil. Go home, Diego Marradonna. I like that his exit showed us what we already knew, that he has no class. Apparently the betting public continues to be seduced by star players over teamwork. This effect seems to have been lessened by Germany's recent success, as they are a (+170) dog to Spain. Spain is (+155), and a draw is (+225). Spain has more star players, but they seem content with grinding out 1-nil victories. Spain is much better than Argentina defensively, and so present a different kind of challenge for the Germans. David Villa seems less dangerous than Leo Messi & Company, though he leads this World Cup in scoring, while Messi was held goalless. Villa favors one touch strikes, and his abrupt attacks may have more success against the solid German defense than the maneuverings of Messi.

Meanwhile, the greatest danger is from the German counterattack. Spain managed to contain Paraguay, but Germany certainly has more skill in the attack, if not more pace. I think the Germans' best chances will be on the break. I don't know if Germany will be able to maneuver their way through Spain the way they did Argentina (though they ultimately made that look easy), and I question whether or not Spain will open up if they get behind. Having said that, Germany still seems the more dangerous side. I'm not sure what the psychological implications of the '08 Euro are. This German team seems much improved, though I suspect the odds have more to do with the Spanish victory two years ago than with either teams current form.

Spain has only made the World Cup semifinals once before, while Germany has done so ten times, with three Championships and four runners up. While neither team is going to want to get behind, 1-0 will seem like more of a mountain to the Spanish. The fact that Spain started the World Cup as co-favorites with Brazil puts more pressure on them as well.

As for the other game, I'm too pro-Holland to be objective for their tilt with Uruguay. The Dutch are favored, going off at (-165) while Uruguay are (+550), and a draw is (+250). I also believe that you don't make $$ betting favorites. I had my chance to take Holland (+300)over Brazil, but avoided it due to my emotional involvement. Oh well. I'm not jumping in now, when I'm not getting a good price.

Unfortunately, I avoided taking Germany in their previous tilt due to pro-England bias. Most of my non-Dutch blood came over with the Puritans and Pilgrims, and I'm more familiar with the English players since I follow the Premiership. I'm sure many people utterly devoid of English blood were pulling for them due to the popularity of the Premier League. Whether or not this popularity abroad significantly contributed to the flood of money that made England a favorite in games where they did not deserve to be remains to be seen. England was about as much of a favorite in that game as Spain is in this one, and had done less to earn their favored status. (On the other hand, Germany had done less at that point as well...) You have no idea how itchy my trigger finger was before that game. If this had been the NFL playoffs I would have bet Germany without thinking twice about it. Maybe I need to get my priorities straight.

Betting on England is like betting on the Cubs. Consider yourself warned. Where was I? Oh yeah...

The Oranje are the better side, and they have a huge karmic advantage, since Uruguay essentially cheated their way past Ghana, though I guess this was within the rules. In any case, I expect the African fans to be behind Holland, since Uruguay screwed their last chance. If I'm right, Holland will have a nice home-field advantage. I've always heard that Africaaners hate the Dutch, but I expect support from them as well. It probably won't be as much of a home-field as Ghana could have expected. Honestly, I'd probably be more scared of Ghana's home field than I am of Uruguay and their marred karma. Maybe Uruguay will make this attitude look silly. The semis are about as far as home field tends to take the big underdogs, for instance South Korea in '02, Chile in '62, or the US in '94. Just kidding. We didn't get out of the first round.

So, I'm taking Germany(+170)over Spain. Since this looks like a tighter game, a draw at (+225) may make sense, if you don't favor Germany's chances as much as I do. If you like the under, you will have to pay for it (-150). Bodog won't let you parlay Spain and the Under. If I was taking Spain this is probably how I would like to do it. Parlaying Germany and Holland pays 3.34/1. I'm still thinking about that.

I've checked Bwin.com to see if their odds are any different. While the mammoth sportsbook sponsors Spanish giants Real Madrid, they are an Austrian company, so I am not surprised to see Germany favored there by about the same margin as Spain is on bodog. If you want to bet Spain this would be a better place to do it. If the truth is somewhere in between these two sets of odds, we're in for one hell of a game. Incidentally, Ladbrokes.com has them dead even, at 13/8 each.

This could be the last time I bet this World Cup, since I'm avoiding betting for or against Holland, and since fading Uruguay will no doubt be even more expensive if they play Germany or Spain. Sounds like some pre-NFL hibernation for me.

England-Germany

2010-06-27T06:54:00.000-07:00

England-Germany is about to get underway, and England is a slight favorite, on bodog.com, at least. I still say this is due to England $$ more than recent form, but while as a handicapper I like Germany, I'm rooting for England, and not betting. Let the record show that my past soccer handicappping record is crap.

Germany pick(+110) and England pick(-140) I take it include extra time, since there is no draw option. This, as opposed to Germany(+180), England(+155), and Draw(+275). If you don't quite fathom the betting sheet you perhaps ought not bet.

And I haven't: the game is now underway. (I really wanted to bet--can you tell?) England has more star power, but so far what has impressed is their tenacity and physical defense. One side or the other has supporters loud enough to be heard over the buzz of the horns. Along with a chorous of boos that met a non-call just now, this is one of the only instances I can recall. The last time was a bullshit chant from the Americans after a flagrant Ghanan flop yesterday.

Just heard some "God Save the Queen" over the buzz. Those fucking noisemakers are so fucking obnoxious.

Germany has scored. Knew I shoulda bet them. On a counterattack, as I suspected. These teams are solid enough defansively that counterattacking should give the best chances for both sides...

Some nifty passing from Germany just opened up the English defense, and David James made a nice save.

Ugh. Germany just scored again. I knew there was a reason that Germany(+180) seemed like a bargain.

England just scored, 2-1. This is turning into a good game.

Lampard just scored, but the refs didn't count it. Garbage.

.......................

Germany has won, 4-1. Once England got behind, they needed a more aggressive scheme, further opening them up in the back. Things may have been different had Lampard's goal counted, but Germany successfully took advantgage of the counterattacking chances England's aggressive stance presented, and they deserve credit for that. If Argentina advances, Germany could be a good value as a dog there. Something to look forward to.

Round 2 Begins

2010-06-26T09:35:00.000-07:00

South Korea lost to Uruguay this morning, 2-1. The South American side will play the winner of US-Ghana this afternoon. Having been stuck there for four and a half years, I was pulling for the Land of the Morning Calm. Land of the Morning Loss rather, at least in Central Time. In Africa it was an Afternoon loss, and in Seoul it was a late-night loss....

Is it me, or did the Dodge Challenger ads where George Washington drives the Redcoats from the battlefield with a few Challengers happen to debut just before the US drew England in the World Cup?

Now that the US has won their group, leading to a tilt with Ghana this afternoon, Dodge can breathe easy. Had the Americans finished second, they'd be facing the Germans next, and Dodge, or perhaps Chrysler, would face embarrasing questions about why they don't have some Challengers winning the Battle of the Bulge.

The Germans would laugh at the Cars and Freedom line. Of course, it sounds better than "A couple of things the Germans got right: Cars and Genocide," right? Unless you're into that sort of thing. Somebody should do a VW parody like that.

Ten minutes to gametime, and the US are favored over Ghana, though I won't bore you with the odds. Meanwhile, we are a 33-1 shot to win the whole thing.

Enough Americans have shown up to audibly sing the Star Spangled Banner. Thankfully those little noisemakers held off until after the anthems, though the buzzing started up for a few seconds before the Ghana anthem interrupted them.

Brazil and Spain are still the favorites, at 3/1 and 4/1, respectively. Had Spain's tilt with Chile gone differently, Spain and Brazil would be playing each other next round.

Argentina is a 9/2 shot, followed by Holland at 13/2. England and Germany, who play each other tomorrow, are both 14/1. England are slight favorites, at least on bodog.com, but I chalk this up to the betting publc, rather than to the teams' recent form.

Ugh. Ghana just scored. On a related note, either the odds have shifted, or I misread them before. I don't really care for soccer odds.

Poker profits trump hoops

2010-05-31T06:41:00.001-07:00

I took BOSTON(-3)over orlando last Friday, but didn't want to post my bet until I knew if the Celtics injured in game 5 would play. They did, and Boston romped to a 12 point win that wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Rather than wait around and see if my bet was worth advertising, I headed up 281 North to Oklahoma, where I took down $779 playing NLHE at the Red River Commanche Casino. I didn't really see alot of bad play, but the deck hit me pretty hard in the head. I could have left up $900 or a grand before I pissed away $150 or so on 63s 862 3 x. I was up against a higher two pair, 8833. I should have realized a junk two pair was too weak to bet the river, but my opponent had been giving off such a strong whiny bitch loser vibe that I was convinced he would pay me off with a pair.

He totally reminded me of a guy I won a few hands against the last time I was in Vegas, but this guy wasn't as bad of a player as the other guy. I'm fairly convinced this guy has to be along-term loser since he had such a negative, fatalistic attitude, and he seemed incapable of keeping it to himself, but once he'd caught some cards it looked like he might wait 'til another day to blow his winnings. I waited for a while for the last two tables to combine, but decided the extra sleep lost might not be worth it, and left.

The Lakers are a 6 point favorite over the Celtics, now that they have finally beaten the Suns. I'll probably wait until game two or 3 to bet, though I still have Boston at 7/4 to win it all. This may be enough action for me for now.

The Blind Side leading the Blind

2010-05-23T07:24:00.000-07:00

Bodog.com confronts would be sports gamblers with the slogan, "IT"S JUST ABOUT WINNING. Bet the NBA playoffs." The words are flanked by graphics of Dwight Howard and LeBron James going up for dunks. Kind of ironic, especially the morning after Boston trounced Orlando 94-71 to take a 3-0 lead in that series. I'm sure their ad campaign was put together weeks ago, but how hard would it be to throw up new graphics with some players who are actually...winning? You know, since that's what it's about, and what-not.

SUPER EASY. Especially since I've seen graphics on their site previously with the likes of Kobe Bryant. Pretty sure I've seen Kevin Garnett on there as well. If not, I'm sure they could whip off a pic of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, or somebody from the Celtics...since they're winning.

Anyway, last I checked it was all about covering the spread. Unless you're taking the money line or something. Just one more example of bodog insulting their customers' intellegence.

I had BOSTON(-3)over orlando last night. I'd post it here, but nobody reads this, whereas at least a few people post their picks on covers.com's facebook page, so that's where I've been posting lately. Even if only a few people check there, those people are all hardcore handicapping geeks, and therefore actually care about who picks what, even if they're just trying to glom off each other's winnings.

Speaking of glomming off each others' winnings, I finally had a lightbulb light up about 18 inches above my receeding hairline. That's why I'm giving my pick for the Lakers at Suns game right here, in the hopes that I get some readers. I will link a post on covers.com's facebook to here, right after I complete this post.

I'm not sure why this attempt to lure readers to this space is conjuring up an image of a dark room lined in plastic, like the ones Dexter uses to ritualistically kill his victims. Maybe it's because I've been reading Panic! by Michael Lewis,* and in my mind tout services are equivalent to stockbrokers, not only morally, but literally. For the purpose of this discussion, all you need to know about this book is that it makes it painfully obvious that the people on Wall Street who charge commissions for their expertise have no idea what they are doing.**

Apparently Michael Lewis sees some sort of parallels between finance and sport as well, since along with financial books like Liars Poker and Panic!, he has also written Moneyball and
The Blind Side. Yeah, that Michael Lewis. Same guy.

Same guy who inspired me to hope that the Detroit Lions would draft a left tackle last year, rather than Matthew Stafford. Or instead of Brandon Pettigrew, the Oklahoma State tight end the Lions took with the 20th pick, just before the Ravens took Michael Oher with the 22nd, and just after ESPN lauded the Ravens' Ozzie Newsome for his top-notch-ultra-consistent drafting prowess. Newsome's esteem for Oher confirmed for me the Lions' continued draft-day idiocy. I was convinced the Lions ought to take a left tackle, and wait for Sam Bradford this year. Without Stafford, the Lions lose that shootout vs Cleveland (might notta been a shootout, either) and get the top pick again this year.

At this point I'm happy though, since Stafford so far has been better than I expected, since Bradford got himself injured, and since the Lions got Ndamukong Suh this year. I'd take Stafford and Suh over Bradford and any left tackle you could name. The fact that the Lions could have had Oher with the 20th pick still chaps my ass, though. Pettigrew had better be a stud.

Where was I? Yeah, I've been reading Michael Lewis. So should you. And sometime soon I'm going to watch season 3 of Dexter.

Anyway, if you didn't want to put up with my above nonsense, you probably scrolled down to here. la lakers(+1)over PHOENIX. While this is one of those spots where I would usually count on the Lakers to slack off, the Celtic win last night ought to give them enough motivation to crush a Suns team who has shown no indication that they will stop the Lakers defensively. Ever. Not that the Suns never will stop the Lakers. It just wouldn't surprise me if we saw some personnel changes before that day.

If the Suns go off and drain some threes they could throw the outcome into doubt. They will need to give LA some help though. The Lakers aren't going to blow this one on their own. Right now they're playing well enough that I'm worried my bet of Boston at 7/4 to win it all may have been a mistake. On the other hand, the odds of that are down to 3/2.

To sum up, I'm catching up on Dexter, you should read Michael Lewis, bodog doesn't respect their customers, I love Ndamakong Suh, and the Lakers are going to win today, because they don't want the Celtics to get any rest. Not to give away how I'm leaning the next couple of games, but get out the brooms.

*Excellent read, by the way. The book is a collection of essays written before, during and after the last four big financial meltdowns.

**The big meltdowns in this book seem to indicate that the higher-ups on Wall Street that really do know what they're doing may not know either.

Day Off

2010-05-04T22:05:00.000-07:00

I didn't bet today. ORLANDO(-9)atlanta moved to 9.5 by this afternoon, and while I liked Orlando to cover, I figured I wasn't getting good value at 9.5. The Magic won, 114-71. Now I'll probably have to take Atlanta next game at about +7.5, which seems fairly terrifying.

Meanwhile, zig zag indicated taking LALAKERS(-6.5)over utah, since they failed to cover in game one. Taking the home favorite in game 2 because they failed to cover in the first game seems a little weak, since the team who is behind 0-1 ought to be more motivated. I've been watching since about halfway through the third quarter, and the Lakers have been up by about 6 for most of it, though at the moment they've stretched their lead to 9, 105-96, with 2:38 to go. The game has been tight enough that my reluctance to bet it seems justified.

Yesterday I took boston(+7)over CLEVELAND, as dictated by zig zag. Ironically, Chad Millman's wiseguys told him not to zag against Cleveland, because they're too good. Glad I'd already bet before I read him, though I'd like to think I'd still take Boston. It isn't as if the Cavs haven't disappointed before. Boston won, 104-86.

I stayed away from PHOENIX(-4)over san antonio. I like home teams giving 4 or less, but I don't like the Suns' previous history vs. the Spurs. PHX won, 111-102. I figure on taking the Spurs tomorrow, but I'm not sure where I think the Celtics-Cavs series is going next. Apparently they don't play again until Friday, so I'll worry about that later.

Only one game tomorrow. san antonio(+2.5)over PHOENIX. I'd like more points, but tough shit....or not. I've paid the extra vig, for san antonio(+3)over PHOENIX. Apparently this one opened at PHX(-4.5), though now it's down to 2.5 everywhere, and apparently 66% of bettors are on Phoenix at this number, which probably means the Suns are going down.

LA won, 111-103

Retro Rice Burners

2010-05-02T13:17:00.001-07:00

I've taken OVER 198 for Jazz at Lakers. I posted it on covers.com, though probably so close to game time that nobody could follow me. Right now they're about halfway into the 2nd, and LA is up, 41-28.

I find the new Toyota Avalon ads to be unintentionally ironic and bizarre. They play on nostalgia inspired by Mad Men, or perhaps that movie where Gwyneth Paltrow plays a stewardess. They call us back to a simpler time, a time when there were no Japanese cars. Don Draper would be proud--even if he celebrated a raise by buying a new Cadillac. No doubt Sterling-Cooper would be proud to successfully brand Toyota the new Cadillac, especially if they used art deco and pomade to do it.

Maybe it's just me, but the grille on the current Avalon reminds me of a Ford Fusion...or maybe the new Taurus. Not sure what that says about Toyota, Ford, or me.

53-45 at the half. Just slightly off-pace. We'll see if Phil Jackson makes the Lakers play that much more of a half-court game in the 2nd half. If the Jazz can find a way to take the lead I think this goes over. Otherwise...I'm concerned.

The Lakers won, 104-99. The OVER didn't come in until the last half minute or so. According to the zig-zag theory, I should take LA next game, since they didn't cover.

Also according to zag, boston(+6.5)over CLEVELAND should be the play. With my predeliction for taking home teams when the lines are tight, PHOENIX(-4)over san antonio should be another...especially since most places you'll pay 4.5, but I'm not crazy about the Suns history vs. the Spurs, so I may have to pass.

Basketball, Boxing & BMs

2010-05-02T10:09:00.001-07:00

Sugar Shane Mosley lost a unanimous decision last night, after finding his way past Floyd Mayweather's defense in the first two rounds. While he failed to figure out how to press his early advantage, he at least managed to get Mayweather to come out and fight. Mosley may have lost, but he did enough to get boxing fans a win.

Today I've teased ATLANTA(-9)over milwaukee, and o/u 186 down to ATLANTA(-4)over milwaukee, over 181. Apparently a couple of covers.com experts like Milwaukee and the over. Oh yeah? Are their experts 18-6-1 for the playoffs?

Actually, I like their picks, other than I make my hay betting home teams whenever the line ranges from (-4) to (+4), so my tease is strictly an attempt to get the line into my sweet spot. The 186 o/u seems to be a reaction to the low score last game, so going over makes more sense than hoping the score stays down.

I got an order of 20 of whatever are the hottest wings Pizza Hut has last night, because it cost $3 more to split the order. This has not helped my digestive situation any. I have been invited to Pluckers for a going away party tonight, so my troubles are likely to continue. I'd set the odds of a normal BM tomorrow at about 4/1.

Speaking of BMs, if bodog ever unlocks the Laker line so I can tease it, I'll probably go LAKERS(-2.5), over 194. If you think I'm trying to insult the Lakers or Bodog, you're probably right. My only concern is that I think LA wants to play a half-court game, which could keep the score down if they're successful. Jazz games are high scoring as fuck though, so....

Prizefight on Derby Day

2010-05-01T11:58:00.001-07:00

Much is made these days of the difficulties that arise when two or more sporting events are scheduled for the same time. Since I am instinctively reluctant to use new technologies, and since I find most events are less compelling when viewed after the fact, I usually cope by choosing one or the other, or by finding a pub where I can watch more than one game at the same time. Does this lead me to drink more? Sometimes. So be it.

This morning I was treated to another sort of double header, in front of tonight's Mayweather-Mosley fight. I watched Mayweather-Marquez while reading Bill Simmons' Book of Basketball. I'm not sure if they showed the entire fight, or if they skipped a couple of rounds, since the book distracted me enough to make me lose track of enough of the fight to throw that much doubt on the broadcast. Did The Book of Basketball transfix me enough so that time seemed to speed up, at least as measured in rounds of boxing? I'm not sure. If so this is a nice compliment.

Nice, but nothing to get carried away by, as I saw that fight live, on the big screen at Guantanamo Bay's infamous Tiki Bar.* I already knew that

a.) Mayweather wins in a 12 round decision
b.) Marquez got his ass kicked
c.) This wasn't a very good fight

Distracting me from this fight wasn't that much of a compliment, in other words.

While this may not have been a great fight, this was in spite of, or perhaps because of Mayweather's greatness. His greatness as a defender and counter puncher, that is. As long as Floyd is able to control the fight, and make his opponent attack him, his outstanding defense seems to give him an overwhelming advantage. A fight where he is able to dictate the terms, and control the tempo will showcase his natural gifts, and his tremendous skills, but will also be rather boring.

After this fight Mosley-Margarito came on. While I knew Mosley would win this fight, I didn't know when the end would come. Since my home computers are all on the fritz right now, I had no way of checking the outcome. Some combination of my food (potato chips, fried chicken) and drink (beer, margaritas) had conspired to force me into multiple bathroom trips this morning. While I still dipped into The Book of Basketball during the fight, the bout was getting more competition for my attention from my large intestine.

Mosley knocked out Margarito in the 9th round. To that point I hadn't left the couch. My sphincter had done it's job, and could now relax.

I hadn't seen Sugar Shane fight before, so I wanted to see what I could expect tonight. He struck me as quick and athletic. He struck Margarito any way he wanted. Marge looked ridiculously slow, and seemed to be continually off balance. He was saved by the bell at the end of the 8th round, and was wobbly enough that I would have been hugely disappointed if Mosley hadn't finished him in the next.

Mayweather will be a completely different opponent from Margarito, lightning quick, and never off-balance. Mosley is quick too, but one wonders if he can find his way past Floyds' stellar defense. I would like to see it, in part because I think the resulting Mosley-Pacquiao fight would likely be one for the ages. This one, (or Mayweather-Pacquiao) may be one for the ages as well, but is unlikely to be as fan-friendly, since if Mayweather gets his way, it will feature him playing defense and controlling the fight. If Mosley can find a way to hurt him, or to outpoint him, Floyd may have to mix it up. Otherwise, we will see Mayweather's technical mastery carry the day, while the bloodlust of boxing fans will be thwarted until another day.

I heard a story on NPR explain that rather than worry about Mayweather attacking him with his lightning speed, Mosley intended to bring the fight to Floyd. I'm not sure why this spoon feeding the story to the Latte sipping Prius drivers who listen to NPR bugs me. Honestly, I suspect the reporter is spoon-feeding boxing to herself, with no idea that her story insults the intellegence of the minority of NPR listeners who have . Maybe it's incompetance from the press that gets under my skin. There's little reason to expect anything more.

Mayweather is considered a polarizing figure in boxing, who fans either love or hate. I am a Pacquiao fan by accident of marriage, just as my wife is a Pacquiao fan by accident of birth. I don't hate Floyd, but I do love blood. Go Sugar.

Gotta go watch the Kentucky Derby...and get on a computer where I can see if Cavs-Celtics is worth betting tonight. Not a big fan of betting injuries, so LeBron's elbow could keep me from that one anyway. Are the Celtics capable of taking advantage of this injury if it only slows James down for a game or two? What about 3? Usually a team will play above expectations the first game after an injury. This would make the Cavs the play, but it's hard to say that without seeing the line.

So far I'm 18-6-1 betting the NBA playoffs, which is pretty sick, any way you cut it, even though I'm generally just betting teams to bounce back, along with betting home teams. It may not be brain surgery, but you try winning 75% of your bets. Good fucking luck.

*Infamous not for waterboarding, but for whiskyboarding and ginboarding its patrons. Just kidding. Isn't anything connected to Guantanamo Bay inherently infamous these days?

Should have posted this Thursday 22 Apr

2010-04-22T22:14:00.000-07:00

CHICAGO(+4)108, cleveland 106--Bulls win outright. OKLA CITY(-3)101, la lakers 96--Thunder win & cover. PORTLAND(pick)89, phoenix 108--oops. At least I got the best line....This one opened at Portland by 1, and some places moved up to as much as 2.5. 2-1 on the night, 8-2 overall.

I have no idea what to make of the Celtics. Miami is favored by 4 at home, and a letdown makes sense for Boston, but I may stay away.

Spurs extend my streak

2010-04-21T21:41:00.001-07:00

Only bet one game today. I didn't completely trust san antonio(+3.5)over DALLAS, so I teased it to san antonio(+8.5), UNDER 199. San Antonio won, 102-88, giving me a 9 point cushion, and a 6-1 record for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the zig-zag theory said the play in the other game was on Orlando, as the Magic failed to cover in game one. I stayed off it, since I don't think a game that only misses the actual spread by a point or two is a significant indicator of results for the next game. Well, ORLANDO(-9)over charlotte covered easily, as the Magic romped to a
92-77 win. The zig-zag has done just as well in the games I've avoided as in the ones I've bet.

Zag, Zag

2010-04-19T20:48:00.000-07:00

Kevin Garnett got himself suspended last night, dropping the line for tomorrow's game to BOSTON(-1)over miami. Think I'll avoid this one. Meanwhile, the zigging and zagging is a bitch, because the lines have been dropping instead of inflating. The books are on to this strategy.

So be it. I need to take oklahoma city(+6.5)over LA LAKERS, PHOENIX(-8.5)over portland, and milwaukee(+7.5)over ATLANTA. I'm staying off the Suns for now, so I'm not highlighting them, but they are the zag....Maybe I should--after all, I would have covered with chicago(+11)over CLEVELAND, if I'd had the guts to pull the trigger, as the Bulls lost and covered, 112-102. Right now utah(+7) is up on DENVER, 65-51. Lotta game left, but I like my chances.

2010-04-18T19:02:00.000-07:00

Went 2-0 yesterday, as Denver beat Utah, 126-113, covering the 5, and Boston beat Miami,
85-76, covring the 4. Meanwhile, Atlanta beat Milwaukee, 102-92, and Cleveland beat Chicago, 96-83. I don't remeber what these lines were, but I'm pretty sure both favorites covered, though not by very much. I think ATL was favored by 8 or so, and Cleveland by 10 or 11. I imagine those lines aren't going to move a whole lot. If I follow my system, I'm going to have to take all the dogs, unless the lines do something unexpected.

Today my only pick was DALLAS(-5)over san antonio. I'm late posing it here, but I put it on covers.com earlier. At the moment, Dallas is up, 93-84, under four minutes to go. Hopefully this score holds up.

It's held up...barely. Dallas won, 100-94. I'm 3-0 so far. This shouldn't move the line much.

In the other games, the Lakers beat OKC, 87-79, covering the 7.5, and Orlando beat Charlotte 98-89, failing to cover the 10. Not sure what this will do to the lines. Right now Portland is up by a point at Phoenix. The Suns are favored by 9.

Two of tomorrow's lines are out. Cleveland is favored by 10.5, and Denver is favored by 7. I think I need to take the dogs, though I'm a bit leery of going against the Cavs, and I'm not crazy about backing road teams either. utah(+7)over DENVER.

Covers has a nice article about prop bets on the NFL draft...unfortunately, there aren't many places where you can bet on it. Too bad, because the reasoning behind most of the recommended bets seems pretty solid.

Chad Millman's latest column explains the zig-zag theory, which is what I'm trying to use. Apparently each series resets when the teams change venues, which I did not realize until now. Meanwhile, I can still fall back on my college hoops plan of backing home teams whenever the lines are tight. Fine by me. Of course it's easy for me to say that when I'm 3-0 doing that.

NBA Playoffs. Yay.

2010-04-17T10:58:00.000-07:00

NBA Playoff time. My entire betting strategy will be to fade the winner the game before, as the spread overreacts & inflates. Not entirely sure which way to take it when a team wins but doesn't cover. Does the spread move with the winner, or the team that covered?

Meanwhile, since no games have been played yet, I am falling back on my college strategy of taking home teams in games with tight lines, which gives me two plays for day one.

BOSTON(-4)over miami, and DENVER(-5)over utah. Don't expect any analysis of the teams--it's not like I've been following the NBA or anything.

View from the Brink

2010-04-06T20:25:00.000-07:00

So....

The UConn women won another hoops title.

Baseball's started. My Fantasy team, roQQboTTom of the Order, is winning, though only because I'm matched up against the most inept team in the league...so far.

We're almost two games in.

Good thing my Fantasy team is winning, or I'd have a rough time trying to be interested in baseball. Looking ahead to June, the NBA Playofffs and the Stanley Cup will be winding down, leaving me teetering on the brink of nothing but baseball.

Ugh.

With the dog days of Summer fast approaching, it came as a relief that Donovan McNabb got traded to the Washington Redskins. While I won't pretend to know how this one will shake out (which could make me the only one--this may not last for long--), the move came as a breath of fresh air. A nice distraction from the NCAA Finals and opening day.

Had Michigan State beat Butler, I wouldn't require the same sort of numbing....or I'd need it two days later. Really, I should be thanking Butler for keeping us from getting trounced in the Finals. I'd rather not join U of M in losing to UNC and Duke in consecutive years. Having watched the final, I suspect Duke wouldn't have embarrassed us to the same degree as the 'Heels did last year, but that would only serve to make the loss more painful.

What the hell. Thanks, Butler.

I'd really like to do a podcast on the McNabb to the Redskins deal, but Mr. Clean is in North Carolina, and Pennsyltucky Dave is in...Afghanistan. You thought he was in Pennsyltucky? Well, spiritually he probably is.

While I don't particularly care one way or the other about the Eagles, I enjoy watching those who do torment themselves. Makes for a good podcast, if not good television. Gets me over the Spartans losing. Too bad it won't happen until September or so.

Unhappy St. Patrick's Day

2010-03-18T13:06:00.001-07:00

Ugh. Won only $61 at Harrah's yesterday, and followed that up with a $126 loss at Imperial Palace, due to a serious error with AA in the big blind. Down $165 for the day. Leaves me up $848 for the trip. I called two pre-flop all-ins, and one on a flop, losing all three, despite being ahead every time. I may have to consider avoiding these to lower my variance. (There were other all-ins as well, but in these I was much more certain I was ahead. I don't think I was ever behind when alot of chips went in, except with my AA.

So far I'm 1-1 in the NCAA tournament, as BYU pulled out an OT victory over Florida, 97-92. I had BYU(-5)over Florida. Meanwhile, the Choking Irish bombed out the day after St. Patrick's Day, losing to Old Dominion, 51-50. I had ND(-2)over OD. Later on I have Georgetown(-13)over Ohio, and Tennessee(-3)over San Diego State.

Tomorrow I have Florida State(-1)over Gonzaga, Temple(-1)over Cornell, Oakland(+10)over Pittsburgh, and Louisville(-1)over Cal. Cal is now a pick, while Oakland is now +10.5. Everyone says Cal is undervalued. I've heard the same thing about Oakland, but apparently they are still flying under the radar.
Back to the grind. No alcohol for me today...or at least not much.

Skinning Drunks Later...

2010-03-17T13:16:00.000-07:00

Happy St. Patrick's Day...(!)

Won $252 playing 1-2 at the Hard Rock last night, and followed it up with a $425 win at the Palms playing 1-3. In between I was in a ridiculous traffic jam going north on Las Vegas Blvd. In fact, this jam was the reason I ended up at the Palms. I was trying to go to Bally's or Harrah's, but there was no way I could get across 2 lanes to get to Bally's, and there was no way I was going to continue north to Harrah's.

The other place I was going to try to check out was Aria City Center. My plan was to check out the Palms, and head back to Aria if the Palms looked dead, but it was fishy enough for me. I figured I could get south on LVB to city center, since traffic didn't look jacked up that way. Today I may have to stay off the strip when moving about.

Speaking of which, this could be a big earning day for me, with all the drunks & what not, so I'm getting back out there. I totaled $677 last night, and I'm up $1115 in two days. Can't complain.

2010-03-16T16:18:00.000-07:00

I'm in Vegas, after driving for two days, including through a nasty snowstorm, of all things, in New Mexico, of all places.

I'm holed up in Circus Circus again, in the West Tower this time. I'm on the 17th floor, and my window faces the big, unsightly, pink dome that houses the circus, or the casino, or something.

I'm up $438 from playing $2-5 NLHE at the MGM last night, and I've started to bet on the NCAA tournament. I plan on putting minimal time into picking hoops, to max out my poker time. I'm hoping this week will have that much more action than usual, due to March Madness, St. Patricks day, and spring break. I hadn't factored that in before, but apparently it's going on, so there you go.

So far I have Louisville(-1) over Cal. Apparently the smart $$ likes Cal, but I didn't hear this until after I'd bet. I also have Notre Dame(-2)over Old Dominion. This line opened at 3. If it keeps falling, I may bet it again. I also have Tennessee(-3)over San Diego State. This was 4 before. I thought Tennessee would be getting more respect.

Apparently Oakland is a big sleeper. They opened as an 11 point dog to Pitt, and it's dropped to 10. Word on the street is that Pitt should only be favored by 5 or 6. So...Oakland(+10)over Pitt. Accuscore has Pitt by 8, whatever that's worth. Usually I find relying on Accuscore is less help than hindrance.

Weekend Recap

2010-03-16T16:17:00.000-07:00

I need to post my recent picks at some point. This is where I'll do it...when I get to it.

Better than Yesterday

2010-03-11T19:24:00.000-08:00

It's still tournament time, and as I predicted, the lack of home courts has made my picks less relaible.

At least I got something right.

On the other hand, I took Wake Forest(-4)over Miami. Figured since the ACC tournament is in North Carolina this would be like a home game. If it was, it didn't matter. Miami won,
83-62.

I teased Michigan(-3)over Iowa, over 112, since I didn't turst Michigan to cover eight points. And they didn't. But the teams combined didn't score 112 either. Michigan, 59-52. Not only did Michigan fail to cover the actual spread by one, they missed the teased over by one. Lie down with dogs, you get fleas. These games finished within six minutes of each other. To say I was dismayed would be an understatement.

I salvaged some dignity, and $$, when Texas A&M beat Nebraska, 70-64. By the time I bet, the Aggies were favored by 8. Fortunately, I teased this one as well.
Texas A&M(-3)over Nebraska, over 119. While A&M needed the tease to cover, 134 points was enough to cover the actual over...or the teased under, for that matter (129). I really like the Aggies, as well as Baylor. Neither gets alot of attention. Hopefully they both stay underrated. I don't know if I want to mess with either one of them vs. Kansas or Kansas State, they ought to be worth a couple of bets in the NCAA tournament.

I parlayed Northwestern(-9)over Indiana, under 134. I like to parlay big favorites with the under, since I think many blowouts happen when the loser gets shout down offensively. I considered doing the same thing with Tennessee-LSU, but decided Tennessee scores enough to hit the over on their own, so to speak. But what do I know? That total went under easily, as the 59-49 final score was 18 shy of 126. Tennessee didn't cover anyway, as the Vols were favored by 10.

Anyway, Northwestern trailed early on, though I think they had a lead by the time I took a nap in the second half. When I woke up, the Wildcats had won, 73-58, sneaking under by 3 points. This bet paid 2.81/1.

I was awake through the entire Texas-Baylor game. This one opened as a pick, but moved a point in either direction by game time. Based on my above comments, you probably know which way I was leaning here. I was unlucky enough to get Baylor(-1)over texas. Worked out though, as the Bears pulled away in the 2nd half, 86-67.

So I actually went 3-2 on the day, and the parlay makes it a bit better than that. Brings me to 21-13 on covers, or 20-13, 1-0 on parlays. I'd rather keep that count separate, since it can't help but bring my average down.

A rough day for me

2010-03-10T22:12:00.000-08:00

It's conference tournament time, and my bets today didn't do so hot. Here they are.

I took South Florida(+7)over Georgetown. I considered teasing Georgetown, but couldn't decide whether to go over or under. Under would have worked. Georgetown, 69-49. MSG is St. John's home court. I teased ST JOHNS(+9.5)over marquette, over 121. Good day for unders. Marquette won, 57-55. Turns out I didn't need to tease. Oh well.

I also teased Missouri(-6)over Nebraska, over 127. The teased over came in, but Missouri lost outright, 75-60. Terrible. Nebraska sucks, too. Staying in the Big XII, I took
Oklahoma State(-6)over Oklahoma. State jumped out to about a 20-2 early lead, and cruised to an 81-67 victory.

Meanwhile, I had Notre Dame(-1)over Seton Hall. The Irish came through, 68-56, and I briefly had a shot at breaking even for the day, but my bet of Louisville(-6)over Cincinnati went awry, as the Cardnails lost outright, 69-66. Crap. You wouldn't guess this after Georgetown crushed Cincy, 74-47. Maybe you would, but i sure the hell didn't. 2-4 on the day.

Tornament play could continue to be rough for me, as much as I depend on home court advantage for my wagers. Games with a home court advantage are few and far between.

Week Recap, since I've been slacking...

2010-03-09T10:14:00.000-08:00

(If you don't want to read about cars, skip down to where my picks appear in bold print. I go on for a bit.)

I haven't posted in a week, since it's been hectic. I was on my way to New Orleans, wife & kid in tow, when my Impala broke down. Three days later, I bought a new Jetta, getting $4500 from the Chevy on a trade-in, sight unseen. If Automax doesn't want to do their due dillegence, who am I to do it for them. The local Chevy dealership, who replaced the transmission once, and just fixed it again, told me I would probably get $2000-$2500 from them, had I bought a Camaro from them.

As recently as four weeks ago I remarked that buying a Camaro might be the most patriotic act I could imagine. It may be more accurate to say that it was the most patriotic act I could imagine myself doing, since I don't particularly care for any other Chevys right now. As for other American cars, I can see myself in a Challenger, a used CTS...or maybe a Pontiac G8 or GTO (For a cheap fuck like me, buying a new car is an uber-patriotic act. Buying a house? Well, my duplex will make me money, so ultimately this is a less expensive act. My Jetta is only about 1% American parts, so about every Japanese car I could have considered is more American than my new Krautmobile.

Since I will move to Germany in the next year or so, it behooves me to get a car that is easy to maintain over there. Apparently it would have behooved me to get a Golf, so I could squeeze my way into tight parking spaces, but I want that massive Jetta trunk. I need to make this car practical long term, especially if I am harboring any plans to get a Camaro when I get back to the US. (Or a BMW...I test drove an '06 330i--smokin' fast. Makes me shudder to think what the 335i will do, since these beasts get a 300HP twin turbo flat 6, instead of the 265 or so horses from the 330i. I like cars that make me shudder.

My Jetta doesn't quite do that, but it is a Wolfsburg Edition, so it gets the 2.0 liter turbo engine. It's a stealthy little rocket. I like stealth...one way this car trumps a Camaro. The stealthiest you can get with those is to get one in Cyber Grey Metallic, or maybe Imperial Blue Metallic. Don't go with Victory Red, Rally Yellow, or Synergy Green. And stay away from racing stripes.

Black is the only color on the Camaro palate that doesn't get an adjective. White? Make that Summit white.

Having scoured the internet for car info in the past week, I am suddenly conversant in the language of car colors. The adjectives used tell you where these guys' heads are at...or rather, where they think their customers' heads are at. Mitsubishi Lancers don't come in white. They come in Wicked White. Want a white Mitsubishi Galant? It comes in White Pearl. You can't get a white Jaguar XJ. The closest you can get is Porcelain...which makes it sound like a $72,500 toilet...or the milky skin of a damsel in a vampire novel. Jags also come in other expensive sounding colors, like Claret Metallic, and Caviar Metallic. If you want a black Jag, they come in Ebony...or Ultimate Black Metallic. Going back to Mitsubishi, Eclipses come in Kalapana Black. Lancers come in Tarmac Black Pearl, while Lancer Evolutions come in Phantom Black Pearl.

VW doesn't rely on adjectives to evoke...whatever it is these manufacturers are trying to evoke. They provide brief paragraphs for each color. While these paragraphs are only slightly less obnoxious than the rest of VW's marketing, they have enough entertainment value that I am reproducing them here.

White Gold Metallic: "This metallic blend of white and gold says class, sophistication, and style. Win win win." It also says you want a Jag or a Benz, but can't afford one. Or a Caddy. Cadillac calls this shade (more or less) Vanilla Latte.

Black Uni: "The color of crisp, parallel grill lines seared into a fleshy steak; dancing piano keys; a desolate road without a single street light." Apparently this is not the color for vegans, a demographic I tend to associate with VW. Black Uni is good for tailgaters, musicians, and stalkers. Black Jetta is the new white van.

Salsa Red: "A thick, deep red. Though highly tempting, we don't advise trying to dip your chips in it." Especially if your chips were fried in animal fat. I'm not sure where the vegans stand on salsa. Maybe this is their color. Salsa is the new green.

Candy White: "White is the color with the least amount of ego emissions. Candy white emits a bit more ego. Because it's a lot more glossy. Like candy apple red. Except more white than red. Reaffirming VW's appeal to stoners. This description just gave me the munchies. Hopefully the rear has room for a bunch of dippy bumper stickers.

Blue Graphite Metallic: "Not just blue, blue with graphite flakes. Like having millions of little safety reflectors." Not so much appealing to stoners, as written by stoners. On my computer this looks way more graphite and metallic than blue. About as un-blue as blue can be.

Platinum Gray Metallic: "Better than gold. You bet. It's tough, industrial, and shiny, like a popular rock band." Huh? Maybe they should have called this shade Nickelback. They're...shiny, I guess. This might be my favorite shade, but it may be my least favorite description.

Reflex Silver Metallic: "A touch more bling than gray, a bit more exhilarating than white. Not quite black, not aluminum either. The color of metal. The color of steel. Cool, collected, confident." Or, can't afford a Bimmer...yet. This may be my least favorite shade, but it's the one I'm stuck with, since there was only one Wolfsburg Edition available. It's stealthy, in the way only blah can be. A gray car for the gray man. I like it better on rainy days, so far, but this may be due to Jaguar colors like Frost Blue and Vapour Grey, that evoke the Mists of Avalon...or something.

Sadly enough, there's more. While Reflex Silver Metallic, White Gold Metallic, and Candy White are also available on the Passat, they are joined by...

Deep Black: "Turn off the lights. Close your eyes. Beautiful." This black says you've moved on from all that Jetta stoner nonsense.

Mocha Anthracite: "Like freshly brewed German coffee to stir your senses and get your drive off on the right foot." Hopefully anthracite isn't an artificial sweetener. Personally, I rely on the Italians or French (or Indonesians) for coffee. Stick to cars and beer.

Island Gray Metallic: "The color of foggy mornings, drizzly afternoons, smeared newsprint on your fingertips, smoke rising from the crackling fire." Clearly this is the shade I've been trying to shoehorn my car into in my mind. And I have many leatherbound books that smell of rich mahogany. A very literate shade.

The Passat's muted palate continues on the CC, though the CC has a whopping nine shades to choose from. If I'm paying this much I want choices....even if they all look sort of the same. We've already seen deep black, island gray metallic, reflex silver metallic, white gold metallic, and candy white, which leaves four new shades.

Mocha Anthracite Metallic: This gets the same description as the previous Mocha Anthracite, but sounds less healthy, and looks exactly the same, on my laptop anyway.

Shadow Blue Metallic: "Blue has lots of layers. Calm, confident and friendly it can also be mysterious and seductive. If the world had to pick a favorite color, the winner would probably be blue." Popular yet mysterious. The color for the guy who can't make up his mind...and hopes to get laid...without seeming desperate. Looks more blue than the shade on the Jetta, and the Passat didn't even have a blue. I missed it, until this description.

Iron Gray Metallic: "Like the magnetic metal after which it was named, the CC attracts a crowd, and draws them in for a closer look." The CC was named after a metal? I thought iron was Fe. A lighter shade than an Iron Cross, but almost as butch.

Light Brown Metallic: "With a nice hint of chocolate. Now, sure, chocolate is also brown. So how do we know there is a hint of chocolate in there? Trust. That's how." Huh? Just when we'd put our VW stoner past behind us, I've got the munchies again.

Hold on. White Gold Metallic gets a new description: "It's close to the color of champagne that was popped and sprayed about during it's Pike's Peak victories." Though Chrysler's shade "Champagne" may do a better job of hiding dirt.

I'm semi-terrified to see what drivel they've concocted for the mini-vans. No, I haven't checked yet. I didn't think this would go on and on.

Good god. The Routan has eight new shades, or perhaps one new shade, and seven renamed shades. Take a deep breath.

Antigua Blue: "Clean, simple and pure. It's like a huge vanilla ice cream cone that never melts." And it's Downy fresh...well, it's the shade of fabric softener. Blue vanilla? See, I just told you the shade without all this nonsense. Though I'm too butch to use fabric softener...or hand sanitizer.

Cala Lily White: "Clean and untouched. Here's carte blanche to make your mark." Sounds like a Madonna song...looks like Moby Dick.

Cocoa Bean: "Dark, rich and delicious like the treat it's inspired by." They know they need to manipulate the wife into wanting this. Men are going to manipulate their way into a 4x4.

Mercury Silver: "Lustrous, mysterious, mercurial. Like quicksilver. Now you see it, now you don't." Like your vampire boyfriend. Or bon bons.

Tanzanite: "A shaded medley of sapphire blue, violet and burgundy that glimmers like a rare gemstone." Good god. It's like an ad for Jareds.

Pomegranate Red: "Mouthwateringly fresh. Ready to be picked and savored." But don't dip your chips in it. Maybe a shade darker than salsa. Maybe.

Noctune Black: "Sophisticated, stylish, and trendsetting. Noctune Black is the new black."

Meteor Gray: "Elegant and out of this world, ready to enter the earth's atmosphere in style." These last two are more butch than their descriptions, which still are a bit estrogen-heavy.

Tiguan has approximately the same colors we've seen before, but with completely new despciptions. GTI has colors we've seen before, but with decidedly more butch descriptions....Other than Carbon Steel Gray Metallic, a new color, that gets the same description as Reflex Silver Metallic. Too bad, because I like this shade alot more than the one I'm stuck with. Golf has some of the same shades as the GTI, but these get different descriptions too.

While these endless descriptions have worn me down to a nub, I'm confident the Beetle descriptions will be entertaining....

Different.

Since I last posted, I've made several bets, all of whcih I've posted on covers.com. Here is a recap.

March 3: SOUTH CAROLINA(-3)over alabama--'Bama won, 79-70. 0-1...NOTRE DAME(-1)over uconn--ND won, 58-50. 1-1. Glad I didn't take the over. MARYLAND(+2)over duke--MD won, 79-72. 2-1. Brought me to 10-2 on covers.com. I also took BOSTON COLLEGE(-7)over virginia, but didn't post it because I didn't feel too confident about BC. BC won, 68-55

March 4: Teaser: ARIZONA(pick)over ucla, under 145. I didn't feel good about this pick. Shoulda went with that feeling. Arizona won, but the total went over, 78-73. 2-2. 10-3 on covers.

March 6: GEORGETOWN(-7)over cincinnati--Not even close. G'town, 74-47.
VILLANOVA(-3)over west virginia--Close, but no cigar. WVU, 68-66. BAYLOR(-3)over texas. I've done great fading the 'Horns this year. Baylor, 92-77. MISSISSIPPI STATE(-3)over tennessee--What you need to realise about Miss St. is that they make their living from behind the arc. If they have a bad shooting night, they're pretty much fucked.
Tennessee, 75-59. 2-2 for the day. 12-5 on covers.

March 7: OLD DOMINION(-1)over virginia commonwealth--This pick 99% technical analysis. What the fuck do I know about the CAA. Other than Colonial, I don't even know what CAA stands for. OD, 73-69. Teaser: ILLINOIS(+8.5)over wisconsin, over 117. Got the over part right. Illinois lives by the jump shot, and they die by it. Wisconsin, 72-57.
WAKE FOREST(-1)over clemson. Felt good about this one...WF, 70-65. 2-1 on the day, 14-6 on covers.

March 8: Old Dominion vs. William & Mary, OVER 117. This number seemed way too low. And...teaser: OLD DOMINION(-4)over william & mary, over 112. If these teams had shot some fucking free throws (a tongue-twister--try it!) this would have gone over. There were 2 or 3 nasty cold streaks in this game. But, the last free throw of the game won me one of these bets. OD 60-53, 113 total. 1-1, 15-7.

March 9: Teaser: South Florida(-2.5)over DePaul, under 131. No home court...the Big East Tournament is in Madison Square Garden. USF, 58-49. 107 points. The only reason I teased under instead of over was because the total had moved from 124.5 to 126, so under seemed like a better deal. Accuscore's pick may have moved the total. Alot of totals seem to receive enough action to move them to Accuscore's predictions...or the bookies just adjust the totals that way, with or without the action.

I regret that I didn't trust St. John's(+4) on their home court vs. UConn. The Johnnies won easily, 73-51. This line was 5 by game time. Maybe it would have helped if I'd remembered that St. John's played their home games at MSG. Maybe I would have remebered if the Johnnies were still good.

2010-03-02T20:11:00.000-08:00

I'm late posting tonight, but I put all my picks earlier on covers.com's facebook page, so fuck it. But, lets recap. I wanted to tease CLEMSON(-2)over georgia tech, over 133, but the cowards at bodog.com never put up a total, so instead I took CLEMSON(-6)over georgia tech. Clemson won, 91-80. Incidentally, the over covered, big time.

Before that bet, I made three others. I took FLORIDA(-3)over vanderbilt. Florida made a game of it, but lost, 64-60. This was the first game of the night, so I started off 0-1. I also took NORTH CAROLINA(-4)over miami. UNC won, 69-62, about the same time the Clemson game was winding up, putting me at 2-1. Marquette opened as a 3.5 point favorite hosting Louisville. Apparently the public disagreed with this line, and probably the sharps as well, because it fell to 2, or even 1.5 on some sites. I paid a little more vig to get
MARQUETTE(-1)over louisville. This game just ended, with Marquette on top, 69-48. Makes up for my losing bet on UConn vs. the Cardnails.

Covers has a video that parodies those Dos Equis ads, that you need to see, so here's a link to it.

So, I went 3-1 on the night, putting me at 8-1 overall when I post on covers.com. I'm not perfect anymore there, but I'll take it.

Up the Mountain...eers...

2010-03-01T15:49:00.000-08:00

While I was checking recent scores the WVU line moved on me. The Mountaineers opened as 5.5 point favorites over Georgetown, and by tonight they were up to 6.5. I check Sports Objective's pick, and see that he's taken WVU(-7). Fuck.

What pisses me off was that I'd already figured on teasing West Virginia and the over this morning, after I'd checked the recent totals for these teams. By waiting I cost myself a half point. Or more vig. Anyway, Ive taken WEST VIRGINIA(-2)over georgetown, over 132. And I've posted it on covers.com's facebook page, where I am currently 4-0.

I've also teased Texas(-13.5) down to TEXAS(-8.5)over oklahoma, under 152. The line has been dropping (from 14.5), and the total has been rising (to 146 from 144.5), so I'll use this in my favor. Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian. Hopefully this is one of those times.

I really wanted to do a parlay here. At first I was looking at Texas and the under, since I find that most big wins happen because the loser doesn't score as much as usual. After checking the recent Sooner totals, I decided that counting on Oklahoma to not score might not be such a good idea.

It's halftime, and West Virginia is up by 17, 43-26. Easily covering, and on pace to go over. Hopefully they don't get up by so much that the teams lose interest and stop scoring.

WVU won, and the over came in, 81-68. I'm now 5-0 when I post on covers.com.

Meanwhile, Texas has finally taken the lead for the first time, 58-56, 9:08 to go. The teased under is starting to look like it has a chance of covering, as do the 'Horns, who were down 13 earlier in the game.

Given my apparent ability to cherry pick my best...picks to post, you'd think I might bet a bit more on those games, but so far I haven't.

Texas has won, 87-76, covering the teased line, but the total went over, to the tune of 163. Oklahoma and the over looks outstanding right now.

I Conn myself

2010-02-28T11:15:00.000-08:00

Florida State opened as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Clemson, and that number has jumped to 5, as it should, in my estimation. Since five is just the sort of number the road dog can sneak under in a close game, im teasing down to FLORIDA STATE(pick)over clemson, over 128. As long as a defensive struggle doesn't erupt...make that emerge, this should go over.

In a similar matchup, I'm taking a dissimilar tack. Chad Millman remarked just before the Super Bowl that alot of the sharps in Vegas were betting the Colts moneyline, and then taking the Saints and the points. He said that the moneyline odds were more generous than usual in this game becaue of the increased action. While this seems counterintuitive to me, since so much of the action was on Indy (though alot of moneyline action tends to come in on the dog, since gamblers prefer to chase the big payout), I'm trying a similar tactic for Louisville at UConn. I've taken the UConn moneyline (UCONN -180), and louisville(-5)over UCONN. Unfortunately, I've just checked my bets, and unless UConn wins but fails to cover, I'm going to lose. Right now UConn is up, 28-19. Back to the drawing board. Shoulda taken UConn and not tried to outthink myself.

I also should have taken PENN ST(-2)over northwestern. N'western's win vs. Iowa made too big of an impression on me, and scared me off. That and the game started early, and I got up late. I should have researched Penn State a bit more though, and a bit sooner. These are the matchups that make college hoops so profitable. If I simply took every home team who was favored by 2.5 or less, and every home dog who was a 2.5 point dog or less, I would probably show a profit.

The result? Penn State, 79-60.

While Fla St is still favored by 5 elsewhere, bodog has upped them to 5.5. I feel like they aren't really a public team in hoops, so I suspect the line moves re from sharp $$, but I suppose ultimately I'm guessing.

Louisville just drained a 3 to bring it to 45-40 at the half. Maybe the Cardnails will keep me from making a fool out of myself. Not an easy task.

Full Tilt has a new thing called "Rush Poker." They throw you into a pool with a bunch of other players, and let you quick fold and immediately move to another table for another hand. You can literally play as fast as you want, slowing down only to play hands you like, and your blinds. If you don't bother to defend your blinds, it gets even faster.

What does all this mean from a strategic standpoint? Well, first of all, there is no metagame. Unless you find a small pool, where you can recognize players from previous hands, there is almost no chance to track the tendencies of other players, so this aspect of poker is pretty much eliminated. On the other hand, this minimizes the need to disguise your own play.

On the other hand, anyone who uses a program to track the play of their opponents may reap immense benefits from this, since they could be the only ones keeping track. I wonder if these programs can track 500+ players at once, since they do get this big. At the moment I'm in a pool with 648 players, for instance.

Louisville is now up 55-50. Ridiculous.

Where was I? Oh yeah. What can you do to take advantage of this new format? Here are some suggestions.

1.) Stay aware of position. Stay tight in early position. After all, you could be in any position next hand, and the hands come as quickly as you want.

2.) Steal the blinds. Alot. Other players are using the quck-fold option all the time, and some of them are doing it even when they are in the blinds. Even if they wait to see if anybody raises, they are already ready to fold as soon as somebody does. I usually hold off until I'm in one of the last 3 positions, but back there I'll raise with just about anything. I tend to vary the size of my raises, but I've found that 2.5x the size of the BB is often enough.

3.) Back down to reraises. You almost have to assume that a reraise means what it is supposed to mean. After all, how squirrley do you have to be with your blind steals for anybody to notice when you get a new group of players every hand? To reraise with nothing usually requires you to be fairly confident that your opponent is out of line. How confident can you be when you don't remember your opponent? It's like you're Eliza Dushku in Dollhouse...not only because you can't remember anything, but because your mind is turning into Jello.

4.) Slow the fuck down. Just because you can play at a breakneck speed, doesn't mean that you should. This style of play is exhausting. Let it exhaust your opponents. You don't need to keep moving. Just because you are surrounded by little fishes, swimming around, doesn't mean you have to be the shark. Be the croccidile instead. Lay there in the mud and wait for your prey. For your own sanity.

UConn just got the lead back, 70-68, 4 min left. The crowd is going mad, and these two teams jsut may save me from my own stupidity.

roQQboTTom teases Rocky Top...etc

2010-02-27T09:08:00.000-08:00

Wow. That title sounds extremely gay.

I've teased TENNESSEE(+3)over kentucky up to TENNESSEE(+8),under 148. This was a last minute bet, after which I checked Accuscore. Their average simulation was Kentucky, 75-70. Maybe it would have made more sense to tease the over. According to them, it would have made more sense to tease Kentucky and the over...

I find that when good teams play each other there tends to be more defensive intensity...or whatever else explains less scoring. Kentucky's 58-56 win at Vanderbilt is a good recent example of this. On the other hand, Tennessee's 90-71 loss to Vandy on Feb 9th may be evidence to the contrary.

I've also taken TEXAS A&M(-1)over texas. Gig Em. This opened as a pick, and has moved to A&M by 1.5. I paid the -120 to get it down to 1. Without crunching any numbers or checking any results, I find that it's worth paying the half-point when betting tight spreads like this.

Tennesseeis up, 20-9 . It was 18-4 a minute ago. Right now I hope Tennessee tries to slow the game down. At the moment I think I'd feel better with Tennessee(+3) than with 8 and the teased under.

I've posted my A&M bet on covers.com's facebook page. So far I'm 3-0 on picks I've posted there, so mentioning this ought to jinx it. Click on that link, go to their page, and you can click on that link, and come back here. Love that internet.

The Aggs are favored by 2 now on bodog. Glad I didn't wait too long. I wonder if the books thought Texas would be getting action in this game.

SOB has taken Texas(+2). All this number crunching must be going to his head. Two weeks ago I think he would have taken the Aggies all day. He has also taken
baylor(-4.5)over OKLAHOMA. The Sooners haven't impressed anybody lately with their losing streak. Not in a good way, at least. The line has moved. So be it. baylor(-5) He also likes ALABAMA(-1.5)over ole miss. Unlike UT-TAMU, this pick seems to fit his system, so I'll do it too. 'BAMA(-1.5)...Make that 'BAMA(-1), (-120). Again, I'll pay the vig in this spot.

Georgia opened as a point favorite hosting Florida, but is now a point & a half dog. Bodog has moved them all the way to +2, a 3 point move. Maybe Florida beating Tennessee impressed bettors. For that matter, maybe Tennessee 74 Kentucky 65 is behind this move, making Florida's win even more impressive. Tennessee covered with or without my tease, as they won outright, but teasing the under didn't hurt me any, as the teased under (147) was 8 over the final score.

Accuscore predicts Florida by two as well. I'm tempted to take Georgia, but I've decided not to. If bodog would post a total so I could tease this I probably would do it.

I just tried to tease Kanas and Georgia, but both games have started. I don't like to tease or parlay results that are unrelated to one another, so this is probably just as well.

Baylor won and covered, 70-63, but 'Bama lost outright, 76-73. So far I'm 3-1 today. The Aggies beat Texas, 74-58.

I went 2-0 Thursday night, as Northwestern trounced Iowa, 74-57, making my tease of NW and the over unnecessary, and Wisconsin handled Indiana, 78-46. I thought I had a push on this one, since I'd parlayed Wisconsin and the under, and the 124 total matched the over/under. Apparently a push is good enough on a parlay.

Right now Georgia is making me wish I'd taken them and the two points, as they lead Florida, 45-30 at the half. On the other hand, Illinois, who I'd also considered as a 3.5 point favorite vs. Minnesota, trails 24-14 at the break. The only thing that looks better than the Gophers right now is the under (133).

Apparently a Beer truck knocked over a fire hydrant, and the resulting mess has delayed the start of Maryland at Virginia Tech, so far from 4:00 to 6:30. It sounds like they are going to limit the number of fans at the game because some of the bathrooms will be out of commission. Will this dampen VaTech's considerable home-court advantage (18-0 at home), or will the delay make things that much harder on the road team? Accuscore likes Maryland to win outright, though Tech opened as a point favorite, and the line has moved to Tech by 1.5. I think I'll pay it. The Pomeroy Ratings have Maryland 21 higher than VaTech, but they also had Texas 20 spots better than A&M, and we saw how that turned out. VA TECH(1.5)over maryland. Make that VATECH(-1). Again, I'll pay (-120) for the half-point.

I'm not crazy about betting the moneyline, but Syracuse(-210) over Villanova looks pretty good when you consider that Accuscore likes 'Cuse to win 73% of the time. On the other hand, they also think 'Cuse will cover the 4.5 point spread 63.5% of the time. Too bad bodog has 'Nova as a 5 point dog. Don't tease this one with the over or the under--Accuscore has these as being almost exactly evenly split. Contrast this with the Virginia Tech game, where Accuscore likes the under to hit 57.6% of the time. Too bad the cowards at bodog haven't posted a total for that game. Speaking of which, that game is now delayed until 7:00. Hopefully this is so the Hokies rabid fans can all pack themselves into Cassell Coliseum.

The Pomeroy ratings have unranked Missouri only 2 below Kansas State, which may explain why Accuscore has KState winning by an average of 2, even though they are favored by 6.5. The Cougars also may be looking forward to playing #1 Kansas on Wednesday, though by that time they may not be #1 anymore, as they are losing to Oklahoma State right now. No, they've lost, 85-77.

I'm taking missouri(+7)over KANSAS STATE...paying the vig again. I don't like taking road teams (though I've stated my reasons) so I'll take all the points I can get. I'm still considering a moneyline play, of Missouri(+220). Accuscore thinks they win this 47% of the time. I'll also take
SYRACUSE(-5)over villanova.

Virginia Tech is favored by 2 now. I wonder if the beer truck is influencing this one. Georgia ended up beating Florida, 78-76. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

Fading Hawkeyes, Hoosiers

2010-02-25T15:27:00.000-08:00

I went 2-0 last night, as Minnesota lost but covered, 59-58 vs. Purdue, and Baylor failed to cover the 6.5 point spread, but covered my tease, beating Texas A&M, 70-66. Since the o/u was 136, teasing the over or the under both covered...In fact, teasing the Aggies covered as well. If you teased this game, and didn't tease it with an outside result, you were golden.

Sports Objective likes Iowa(+9.5), USC(-10.5), and Tulsa(+18). The thing is, there's been so much line movement lately that I should be going for middles at this point. The original spread was iowa(+10.5)NORTHWESTERN, but now it's down to 9.

I've teased NORTHWESTERN(-4)over iowa, over 122. It's too late to take Tulsa now...in the case of Iowa and 'SC, Accuscore predicts the opposite of SOB in both cases. Doesn't exactly give me confidence either way. SOB has burned himself betting USC in the past, so buyer beware.

Northwestern is up, 11-6, 7 minutes in. Not sure how I feel about the over right now...

I've parlayed wisconsin(-12)over INDIANA, under 124. Not because I think Wisconsin covers, but because I think their chances of covering go way up if IU has a hard time scoring. Check the scores of Wisconsin's other blowouts. This pays 2.73/1 at bodog.

Wisconsin is up, 14-10, 10:37 to go in the half...looks good for the under, but the Badgers need to score some points....

Bearish on Aggies/Gophers Boil?

2010-02-24T18:08:00.000-08:00

Sports Objective really liked the matchups tonight, but they mostly made me nervous. Especially NOTRE DAME(+1.5)over pitt. Well, ND won, 68-53. Didn't trust ND at all, and Pitt kept winning me $$.

Anyway, I've teased BAYLOR(-1.5)over texas a&m, over 131. I think the Aggies keep this one closer than 6.5. In fact, I almost teased A&M and the over. $$ seems to be coming in on Baylor. I think more people remember that Baylor was ranked, than realize that the Aggies have now broken into the top 25. I didn't realize it until a couple of hours ago. Anyway, Baylor should be out for revenge, and it's definitely preferable to take the home teams, as much as I think the Aggs stay in this one.

I've also taken MINNESOTA(+4)over purdue. I don't really trust the Gophers here, but they lay waste to Wisconsin a couple of games ago....

Ugh. Purdue is up, 24-12. This one could get ugly. 8 minutes left in the first half, so the under looks pretty good right now.

I liked oklahoma state(+9)over TEXAS, but didn't pull the trigger. Right now this looks good as well, with the 'Horns down, 16-14.

Baylor is up, 19-11, 13:50 left in the first. I may regret teasing the over here.

Tuesday Action

2010-02-23T14:31:00.000-08:00

So far I've bet FLORIDA(-2)over tennessee, and I've parlayed
syracuse(-9)over PROVIDENCE, under 158. If you look at Syracuses' totals, you will see that they don't give up alot of points. I think this will need to be the case for them to cover here. The parlay pays 2.81/1.

Florida opened as a 4 point favorite. If the cowards at bodog would post a line in a timely manner, I could get a middle. That's okay, because Florida will win by 9 or 10.

It's probably safe to say that Kansas State is better than Texas right now. Having said that, Sports Objective was incredulous that UT would be favored by 6 over anybody on the road, as they were last weekend vs. Texas Tech. I bring this up because right now TT is a six point dog hosting K State. This line opened at four, so in this case we can blame bettors instead of the books. Still, since I can't get a middle here, the play would seem to be
TEXAS TECH(+6)over kansas state. Bodog won't post a total, so teasing is out of the question.

SOB recommends a thread where a cat named homedawg has been making some nice picks. Another guy on there recommends uner 162 on Syr-Prov. Where the fuck did he find 162? The highest I've seen is 159. Anyway, homedawg likes rutgers(+12)over SETON HALL, and he likes the under, but since the cowards at bodog aren't posting the total for this one, I'm stuck with rutgers(+12), while I really wanted to parlay this with the under.

I have some recent bad memories involving Louisville and Georgetown which leave me less than thrilled about touching their matchup. Since the 'Ville have had their share of low scoring games when they cover, I've parlayed LOUISVILLE(-4)over georgetown, under 141. Pays 2.73/1. Now they just need to avoid a repeat of their 91-89 win vs. Notre Dame, because that would be way over, and they wouldn't cover. SOB took the Louisville moneyline, which was (-165), but is now (-180) on bodog. Fuck that.

Did I mention that I won $$ on UCONN(+3)over west virginia last night? Well I did, as UConn tooka care of business at home, winning 73-62. Right now I'm just hoping WVU finds a way to stay overrated. I feel completely dialed in on the Mountaineers, not to mention Pitt.

Miami-Virginia opened with Miami favored by 5, and has since moved to 6. I really want to tease this back down, but bodog hasn't posted a total for this one. As bad as the Cavs have done, I really don't trust the U...ironic, since you can't spell trust without u....

Well, the U won and covered, not that that did me any good, 74-62. Meanwhile the parlays didn't exactly treat me right, as Louisville lost outright (while the under covered), 70-60, and Syracuse covered 99-85, the under failing miserably.

On the other hand, Rutgers lost but covered, 76-70.

Right now it looks like the Red Raiders will lose and fail to cover, as K State leads, 64-54, with 6:42 left to play.

It's halftime of Tennessee at Florida, and it's tied, 37 all. Florida jumped out to an early lead, but given the flow of the last 10 minutes or so, I'm happy with a tie, and failing to cover by only two.

Now it's K-State, 72-59. They just showed some highlights from that one, and the Tech crowd looked completely dead. If I knew K State would not face a hostile crowd I may have bet the other way. Of course, they probably deserve credit for taking the home crowd out of the game.

Given that Northern Iowa is ranked, fading them should have been automatic. I guess I still don't have them on my radar. While they have come back to within a point, they almost certainly won't cover the 9.5 or 10 point spread.

UConn, IConn, WeConn...

2010-02-22T15:48:00.001-08:00

West Virginia at Connecticut opened with WVU favored by one. Most places you can get UConn as a 2.5 point dog. I went ahead and paid the -120 vig for UCONN(+3)over west virginia. Sports Objective made the same pick. Next year I may just bet all the lower ranked teams whenever a ranked plays an unranked...provided that team is at home. Do a season on autopilot. Looking at other games, trying to figure out over/unders...may be too much work.

These picks may amount to half Sports Objective's picks, and they are the ones where I can predict the pick before I check....this game I even picked it before I knew what the line was...though I pretty much knew what it would be anyway.

Speaking of autopick, my intent is to bet the NBA playoffs by taking whichever team lost the previous game, since

a.) the lines tend to over-compensate

b.) teams tend to bounce back

I may even never bet game one of any series, since this system wouldn't pick these ones.

Ride the Panther(s)?

2010-02-21T09:09:00.000-08:00

Villanova at Pittsburgh opened with 'Nova favored by one, but by gametime moved to
'Nova(-2.5) or (-3). Since Vegas could anticipate the action would move the line that way, they probably aren't averse to it. Therefore, PITT(+2.5)over 'nova.

I almost teased MICHIGAN STATE(-3.5)ohio state, but by the time I decided to tease the under (136) the game was underway. Just as well, as I am emotionally involved here. While I considered teasing the Buckeyes, I more than likely would have taken the Spartans...MSU leads, 9-4, 15:41 to go in the first half, so State and the under looks pretty good right now.

Yesterday I lost on Kentucky 58, Vanderbilt(pick) 56, won on Kent State 74 W Carolina (+8) 72, and lost on Ap State 81, Tennessee Tech(+12.5) 68...barely. Sadly enough, I'm happy going 1-2. Eight game losing streaks will do that to you.

OSU is up, 13-12. I would have teased MSU to (+1.5), but still. Pitt leads, 13-9.

Word. Sometimes less is more. I'm 1-0 today, as Pitt went on to beat Villanova, 70-65. Good thing I didn't bet OSU-MSU...Ohio State won, 74-67, so teasing the under would have failed, even if I'd had the sense to bet the Buckeyes.

Downward Spiral

2010-02-20T11:39:00.000-08:00

Thurday's bets went 0-6 for me. I'd prefer to leave it at that, rather than reliving them. Sports Objective has researched "bracketbuster" games, and has found that road dogs have covered about 2/3 of the time in the last 3 years. He is betting on a ton of games this weekend, so many that I am not going to try to keep up. So far his $$ on road dogs has only served to extend my losing streak, as I took old dominion(+4)over NORTHERN IOWA, and
william & mary(+4)over IONA. Northern Iowa won, 71-62, and Iona won 69-53.

So far today I have VANDERBILT(pick)over kentucky,
tennessee tech(+12.5)over APPALACHIAN STATE, and
western carolina(+8)over KENT STATE. Am I worried that I will continue to lose? Yes I am.

Sports Objective has taken to giving his picks on Twitter. Makes sense, since the blizzard of college basketball games falls so persistently. Who has the time to give their thoughts on every pick?

Kentucky beat Vandy, and Ap State is about a minute from covering against Tennessee Tech. Right now W. Carolina is covering. It'd be nice to win one.

Three (or so) for Thursday

2010-02-18T14:59:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I continued my ass-kicking ways. Here is a brief summary.

Miami led early against Duke, but eventually blew their lead, losing 81-74. Works for me, as I had Miami(+8).

I lost both of my bets on Louisville, as they failed to cover my parlay of the spread(-11) and the under(147), or my tease of them and the over (-6.5 and 142), though the total did go over, as Louisville won, 91-89.

New Mexico beat Wyoming, 83-61, covering the 20 point spread. Yay. 2-2 for me.

Missouri beat Texas, and covered the 3 point spread, 82-77, putting me at 3-2. Since I bet a bit less on my parlay, the night worked out a little bit better than this money-wise.

Tonight SOB is taking 3 home favorites, all of which I expected, since he loves to fade ranked dogs vs. unranked (or lower ranked) opponents. Sadly, I'm almost hoping for him to give me some more exotic bets, because I could have taken these ones myself. Apparently I have learned to fish, though perhaps not well enough to feed myself for a lifetime, so to speak.

Georgetown-Syracuse opened at Georgetown by one. It has moved to 1.5 or 2, but I paid the vig to get it back down to one. GEORGETOWN(-1)over syracuse. This pains me a little bit, as 'Cuse is probably my favorite school that I didn't attend. Furthermore, Georgetown is a bit inconsistent, and Syracuse just may have what it takes to pull off some Big East road wins and claim a top seed. I'm a little surprised the line moved against them, but the Hoyas are a pretty public team as well, thogh I suspect sharp $$ moved this line.

I've also taken OLE MISS(-3)over vanderbilt. This one troubles me a little bit as well, but the public knows Vandy is having a good year and will be on them, so of course the play is the other way.

I was a little surprised that Marquette was favored by 6.5 over Pittsburgh, and those big numbers make me nervous when two good teams are playing, so I've teased
MARQUETTE(-1.5)over pitt, over 128. Not sure why the total is as low as it is here. Usually when I'm puzzled like this the line goes way over...or way under.

I'm considering taking Wisconsin on the road at Minnesota. My read on these teams is probably exaggerated based on Michigan State's results against these teams, so I'm still thinking about it.

I've taken wisconsin(-1)over MINNESOTA. This totally goes against my policy regarding home favorites, but maybe this is the exception that proves the rule. Wisconsin is #3 in the Pomeroy Ratings, while Minnesota is #44. Is 41 spots enough to justify an 8 point gap?

Georgetown is getting killed right now. Of course they are.

I'm taking cal(-6)over OREGON STATE. I want to tease this down to 2, or 1.5, but Cal games are so high scoring, and Oregon State's are so low scoring, I feel like this total could be really tough to pick. On second thought...I think I'll try a tease and a parlay. cal(-6), over 132, (the parlay), and cal(-1), under 137 (the tease). I figure I have a good chance of winning one of these, and a slight chance of winning both, though my bets on Kentucky-Mississippi State were lucky to break even.

Georgetown made a furious comeback, but ultimately lost, 75-71. Ole Miss blew their early lead, and fell to Vandy, 82-78. So I'm 0-2 so far tonight.

Marquette is up 8-4 on Pitt, with 13:55 to go in the 1st half. If this keeps up I'm going to wish I'd teased the under, instead of the over. I need another 117 points.

Wisconsin had an early lead, but now trail Minnesota, 14-8. Shit.

Return of SOB?

2010-02-17T16:07:00.000-08:00

I've taken MIAMI(+7.5)over duke. Duke's road record vs. the spread of late is atrocious, so I'll take my chances.

I've finally looked closely enough at Sports Objective to figure out that his picks are on his twitter page. Though I've done pretty well without him of late. He's taken LOUISVILLE(-11.5)over notre dame. I've made two bets on teh Cardnails. I've parlayed LOUISVILLE(-11.5), under 147. Like the State-Indiana game last night, I figure chances are good if Louisville covers that ND doesn't keep up their end. Since I don't have a strong feeling about the total, and since the Big East teams tend to score in bushels, I've teased LOUISVILLE(-6.5), over 142. While I've compared this game to State-Indiana, SOB compared this game to Baylor-Texas Tech. Of course, we're both comparing to games we won.

Right now Miami is kicking ass, 18-12. Unfortunately, Louisville & ND are knotted at 18 all.

SOB likes MISSOURI(-2.5)over texas. Does he like MISSOURI(-3)? (-3.5)? Because that's what it's moved to. I'm thinking about teasing Missou and the over.

SOB likes NEW MEXICO(-21)over wyoming. Accuscore predicts an average of 85-61. The line is down to 20. I'll take it--NEW MEXICO(-20)over wyoming.

Accuscore also predicts Missouri 80-75 over Texas...I've taken MISSOURI(-3)over texas. Right now my other picks are going against me, and I thought about sitting this one out, but I had this game in mind before I saw SOB's pick. On the other hand, I also got the OSU-Purdue line right--I figured 3 or 3.5, it opened at 3, moved to 3.5 or 4...and Purdue kicked the crap out of the Buckeyes. Glad it started at 6:30 EST, so I missed the start.

Oh yeah--the late games last night--North Carolina came through as expected, losing to Georgia Tech, 68-51. Nice. When will Vegas adjust? The Heels suck this year.

Kentucky won in OT, and covered 81-75, so I won my bet on them. I lost my parlay of Mississippi State and the under. Good thing UK covered, because the under was definitely out of play by the end. The teased under was 144. This would have been good at the end of regulation. Too bad nobody had a lead then. I would have won more if the parlay had come in.

Last minute wagers...

2010-02-16T16:01:00.000-08:00

The Tuesday night games are underway, and whaddya know? I've made 3 bets on the early games. SOUTH FLORIDA(-3)over cincinnati. Check Cincy's road record lately. They drop way off on the road vs. Big East competition. I have no read on the o/u (130) for this game, but based on recent trends I like USF to win by 8 or 10.

I've been big on fading Michigan State this year, and I sorta like Indiana to cover against the underachieving Spartans...in fact, if it wasn't too late, I might bet INDIANA(+11.5)over state...having perused these teams' previous scores, I like michigan state(-11.5), under 139 in a parlay. Basically I think State will either undrachieve and win by 6 or 7, or they'll blow the Hoosiers out. In a blowout I think Indiana doesn't score enough points for the over. I'd consider parlaying it the other way (Indiana and the over), but I don't think a close game is any guarantee of a high score. I don't think a blowout is a guarantee of an under either, but i like the chances.

I've teased VIRGINIA TECH(-.5)over wake forest, over 134. I did this at the last minute without really analyzing these teams' totals, but these ACC teams tend to push each other to some pretty high scores in close games, and I think this one will be pretty close. The fact that this line opened at 5, and moved to 5.5 has me a little concerned. You'd think Wake would be one of those public teams that would get some action as a dog. I think Vegas thought that too, even if they were wrong about public sentiment.

Right now all my teams are losing, except MSU, who are tied, 12-12, 13:31 left in the first half. I'll check in later to bet some more.

Bodog refuses to post a o/u for UNC-GT, so I've taken
GEORGIA TECH(-6)over north carolina. If they ever post a total I may tease Tech and the over. I'm still considering kentucky(-3.5)over MISSISSIPPI STATE, or vice versa. You don't get rich betting on the top teams. Following this logic (sort of) I won last night with
TEXAS A&M(+7)over kansas, as Kansas won by 5, but failed to cover, 59-54. I feel alot safer getting 7 than getting 3 though. And Kentucky just beat Tennessee 73-62...as I recall, the line was 9.

I've parlayed MISSISSIPPI STATE(+4), under 144. My reasoning is that Mississippi State needs their big men on defense to slow Kentucky down to stay in this game, so relative success on their part will tend to mean a lower scoring game. If you check Kentucky's totals you'll see what I mean....In fact, I may just hedge, and take the Wildcats too.

I've taken kentucky(+3)over MISSISSIPPI STATE. I will win more if my State parlay comes through, since that pays like 2.58/1, but this way I break even otherwise...unless MSU covers in a high scoring game.

South Florida is closing out a win and cover, barring some freak run by the Bearcats. USF leads, 59-45, 1:10 to go.

Va Tech has come back to take the lead vs. Wake, and is actually covering at the moment,
80-74. 2:28 to go though, so plenty of time in that one.

I thought State would have to hold IU's points down to cover the spread, and that is what they did, beating Indiana 72-58. 130 was reasonably safely under the 139 o/u. This parlay paid off at 2.73/1.

USF won and covered, 65-57. Cincy continued their losing ways on the road, as I expected.

Virginia Tech leads, 86-83, :17 to go. Not good enough. Pity I didn't tease either one of these teams and the over...or just bet the over, for that matter.

Tech won, 87-83. Way to tease me by getting closer to the line. Can't win them all.

Or can I? Wake getting up early led me to forget that I did tease the over! Tech only needed to win by one to cover...and the teams needed to score more than 134. 170 ought to do the trick.

Georgia Tech leads North Carolina, 14-9. Bodog never did post an o/u. Mississippi State is up 12-10 at the moment. Hopefully my night bets do well enough to not completely undo my hard work earlier.