More Boston pix

After starting out 3-0 in games I piggybacked off of Alan Boston's picks, the wheels came off, and I ended the day 3-3.  I didn't bet any of the Saturday games, but today I got down on some more of his picks.

I stayed away from Temple vs. Indiana (woulda won) and UNC vs. Kansas (woulda lost).  I took Florida(-7.5) over Minnesota, (Fla 78-64, W) and La Salle(+4.5)over Ole Miss, (La Salle 76-74, W), but right now I am on my way to losing with Creighton(+5.5)over Duke.  Duke is up 11, early in the 2nd half.

Since AB said he believed that Miami would blow out Illinois, but thought the line (-8) was inflated, I went for a double tease, with Miami(-4), OVER 124.5, and Miami(-4), UNDER 132.5.  It was good that I teased the line down to four, since Miami won by only four.  Unfortunately, the final was 63-59, too low to get me two pushes.  So I got a push and a loss.

Duke game is over.  Duke covered easily, 66-50.  I basically went 2-2 with a push, but I bet more on the ones I won, so I ended up a little on the day.  I would have done a bit better if I had stayed away from Miami instead of freelancing.

In which I become Alan Boston's disciple

I've been so bad betting NCAA Mens basketball this year, that at this point I'm pretty much just betting Alan Boston's picks.  Here are the ones I've bet.

Temple(+4)over NC State small
LaSalle(+6)over Kansas State big
UCLA(+4)over Minnesota big
Creighton(-3.5)over Cincinnati medium
Iona (+14)over Ohio State medium
Northwestern State(+20.5)over Florida medium

In some of these Alan specifically gave a bet size, in other's I inferred a bet size from his language.  I previously teased OleMiss(+10)over Wisconsin, under 123.5.  As it happens, Alan loves Ole Miss(+6), big, which made me think my bet was pretty good as well, especially when I've also read that somebody has been trying to fake the over unsuccessfully, as everybody else continued to drive the number down.

At the moment, I'm made to think I made a good bet by the score, as Ole Miss leads Wisconsin 53-46, with about 1:30 to go.  I doubt they shoot enough free throws in the next :90 to score another 25 points.

I bet that game on Wednesday.  Not sure what the number moved to...& covers.com isn't showing it now.

Miami is already up, 22-10 on Pacific...I somehow forgot to bet that game (Pacific(+14)), perhaps because I think Miami is scary good.  Alan seems to like James Madison to cover vs. Indiana, and I haven't bet that one either, probably for the same reason.  If I end up down one unit after Pacific and JM cover, I'll have myself to blame.

On the other hand, the U is up 25-11, so I feel pretty good about being on the sidelines for those.

Temple is fucking NC State up, 38-22.  I think I had that in my bracket too, as opposed to UCLA.  I heard way too much Minnesota hype in the past week to resist the Golden Gophers, though I've been down on them all season long.  Minny advances in all 3 of my brackets, but now I'm big on UCLA.

The U is up 33-13.  Oof.

Ole Miss won, 57-46.  Even in losing by 11 the Badgers managed to keep the score down.  Congrats to them.

This is why I also parlayed Georgetown(-13.5)over Florida something or other...sort of.  Georgetown probably has the best defense in the country, and my reasoning is that if they cover it will be because they kept the score WAY DOWN.

Cincinnati juped out to a 6-0 lead over Creighton, but that lead has since been cut to 8-7.  This could be the first close game today.  Cincinnati deserves to lose for those gawdawful uniforams they've been wearing.  Ditto for Notre Dame, though they may come to their senses before they take on Iowa State.  I have to advance Iowa State in my bracket because one of their assistant golf coaches follows me on twitter, and because former Spartan Korie Lucious is playing for the Cyclones.

Of course, I have them losing to Ohio State the next round, but still.

49ers (-3 or so)

I took SanFrancisco(-3.5)overBaltimore.  Then the line tightened up a bit, and I got SanFrancisco(-3)overBaltimore.  If my college hoops betting is any indicator, the 'Niners should be nervous. On the other hand, I'm 5-5 on the NFL Playoffs, including 2-0 on the 49ers.  Could be worse.

And it was worse.  Much worse.  I started off 0-4, with

cincinnati(+5)overHOUSTON
minnesota(+9)overGREENBAY
indianapolis(+7)overBALTIMORE and
WASHINGTON(+3)overseattle

I'm At least Cincy and Washington came close.  I got better from there, with

DENVER(-9)over baltimore
SANFRANCISCO(-3)overgreenbay
seattle(+3)overATLANTA and
NEWENGLAND(-9)overhouston

Seattle had a tremendous comeback to take the lead, before finally losing and covering.  New England let Houston catch up for a likely push, before kicking a mostly meaningless field goal to cover.  I'll take it.

I had

sanfrancisco(-2.5)overATLANTA and
baltimore(+9)overNEWENGLAND.

San Francisco came roaring back to win and cover.  I thought Baltimore(+9) was the easiest pick of the playoffs.  The Pats are capable of covering a big spread like that, but there's no way they should have been favored by more than 4.  Baltimore always plays them tough.

I wonder if I would have had the sense to take the Ravens over Denver if my wildcard weekend hadn't gone so horribly.  Hard to keep taking underdogs after losing with them over and over.

Is what Baltimore has done it the last could of weeks really more impressive than the dismantling of the Packers?  Wouldn't the Packers be favored if they were playing the Ravens?  Whatever.

Anybody who thinks the zone-read will run it's course the way the wildcat did hasn't been paying attention.  The zone read can be difficult to stop even with a fairly inaccurate quarterback, but when you have one who can really throw.  The only thing that is going to slow down these attacks are injuries.  They can still lose any given Sunday, but I wouldn't bet against them.

Have I mentioned that I am sick of ESPN shoving Ray Lewis up my ass over and over again for the last month?  Hopefully this isn't biasing my pick too much.  It's too bad that the media can take any sentimental favorite and beat their story line into the ground so much that you end up rooting against it.  It's a good thing they make deer antler spray and not deer antler suppositories, because Ray Lewis is too full of shit to get one of those things up his ass.  Yeah, I said it.  I'm just waiting around for Wes Welker to get a divorce, so I can move in on the little guy.

I have Colin Kaepernick at 8/5 for Super Bowl MVP.  If he has any kind of big game it will be tough not to give it to him, provided the Niners win.  This bet is a good way to get some money on the 'Niners at more favorable odds than you can get on the game.  I won this way on Aaron Rodgers two years ago, and I know people who had $$ on Peyton Manning before that.  I didn't, because I expected the Saints to win.

Interestingly, you could get 2/1 on Rodgers and Manning.  Goes to show you how important Kaepernick has been to the 'Niners success.  The only other guy I see winning it it Frank Gore, and Gore will only go off if the Ravens completely sell out to stop the QB.

I take rape shower after betting Wolverines, lose

I've parlayed michgan(+5.5)over INDIANA, OVER 145.  This pays 2.7/1.  I could have gotten 6 points, and over 144.5, which would have paid 2.4/1.  We'll see if getting greedy bites me in the ass.

My reasoning?  Michigan plays a lot of low scoring games, but these tend to be against crappy teams they blow out.  Their road games are also more likely to go over.  Their close games tend to be higher scoring.  Indiana puts up a lot of points, so I like the over.  Michigan has a good record vs. the spread lately, while Indiana has failed to cover in five out of their last six games.  I think this line is a bit inflated (Indiana's lines probably have been inflated for a bit, or they'd have a better record vs. the spread) as well.  It opened at 4.5, and has moved to 5.5.  I think 4 or 4.5 is probably right.  I expect that nobody wants to go against Indiana's home record (24-1 in it's last 25 games, 14-1 at home vs. Michigan) either.

Well, now that I've bet Michigan, I feel dirty inside.  Excuse me while I go take a rape shower.  Go green.

I'm watching the Aggies lose narrowly to Kentucky.  Right now they're likely to cover.  Is there any college tradition more homoerotic than A&M's yell leaders?  I mean, I'm a Michigan Thate Thpartan, but I don't think we can keep up with them.  Maybe if Sparty wore chaps.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan lost by eight, and the total went over.  Had I teased Michigan and the over, I would have had michigan(+9.5), over 141, and would have won.  Shoulda woulda coulda.

I ride Rider, Coach K denies practice after Duke blew

I have RIDER(-1)over canisius tonight.  I know more or less nothing about either of these teams, but since when it comes to NCAA hoops I am basically a one-trick pony, and my one trick is betting home teams in close matchups, this game fits the bill, perhaps better than MIAMI(+3)over duke did.  I love winning $$ betting against #1 teams, so I probably won't let that one go any time soon.

Speaking of Duke, now Coach K denies making his team practice in the middle of the night after the Hurricaines blew them off the court.  Not that I believe him.  The whole idea of running the Blue Devils into the ground all night has me fired up, and I choose to stay fired up.  Get some, Coach K!

Duke gets SMOKED

I took MIAMI(+3)over duke tonight.  Miami is ranked # 25, and if you've been paying attention, you know that right now Duke is #1.

Right now is right.  Miami was up 19-14 a few minutes ago, and now they have stretched their lead to 38-15 with a little over two minutes to go in the first half.  Brutal.  Unfortunately, Michigan may be number one when the next poll comes out.

Yesterday I almost took michigan state(+6)over WISCONSIN.  State won, 49-47.  I couldn't figure out  why Wisconsin was favored by six.  In college hoops, home court is considered to be worth four points.  State is #11, and Wisconsin is unranked.  Wisconsin just beat Indiana on the road, so maybe that's why Vegas had them two points better than State.

Miami won, 90-63.  Wow.  Apparently this was the third worst beating ever inflicted on a #1 team.  I wonder how much Duke will drop.  If Michigan State can make it through the week without losing we should be in the top 10.

I have SanFrancisco(-3.5)over Baltimore in the Super Bowl.  3.5 is the 5dimes line right now, while bovada has 'Niners by 4.

If you doubt the importance of finding the best line possible, last week I had sanfrancisco(-3.5)overATLANTA.  If you had 'Niners(-4), you settled for a push.  If you had 'Niners(-4.5) or 'Niners(-5), you lost.  I paid another 8% vig for 3.5, and in this case it was worth every penny.

Duke got smoked?  Duke got rolled up and smoked like fine Cuban tobacco.  Tobacco road took Duke down to a toilet in a locker room in Coral Gables and  flushed it.  Hopefully all the vomit made it into the bowl.

Speaking of vomit, Coach K had the team running practice from like 1:30 to 4:45 in the morning.  Or 1:15 to 4:30.  I forget which, but I remember that it worked out to 3 hours and 15 minutes.  Coach K is the best.  I may have to bet the Blue Devils in the near future.

Road Favs win, Mississippi State sucks

This weekend I posted my picks on Twitter.  Here are the results.
missst(+24.5)over ALABAMA.  Oops--Bama wins, 38-7.  Apparently I was naive to think the Bulldogs would rise up and claim their birthright--a 21 point loss to the Crimson Tide.  Hmm.

newengland(-7)over STLOUIS.  Not really a home game for the Rams, who not only do not reside in London, but live further away than the road Patriots.  Did travel fatigue contribute to the Rams 45-7 loss?  Maybe. 

nygiants(-1)over DALLAS  The Giants tried to find a way to blow this game, and did surrender a
23-0 lead before coming back to win, 29-24.  The Cowboys came within a couple of Dez Bryant's fingers of winning this game.  I'll take it.

I went 2-1 on normal bets.  Unfortunately, I also bet the under (24) for the first half of
Giants-Cowboys.  If I remember right, it was 23-7 at half...maybe 23-10.

I double-teased sanfrancisco(-1), UNDER 44, ARIZONA(-14.5), UNDER 44.5.  The 'Niners crushed the Cardinals, 24-3, good for an under, so I split, and the result only cost me the vig on one bet.  Notice that as one-sided as this game was, I was only a garbage-time TD away from winning both sides of this play.

Viking playoff hopes greatly exaggerated

I've double teased the Thursday night game--again. MINNESOTA(pick)over tampabay, UNDER 49, and MINNESOTA(-0.5)over tampabay, OVER 38.  Home favorites are winning almost every Thursday night.  I don't really trust the Vikings to cover as seven point favorites, but they should win.

This is as good a time as any to mention that last week I double teased SANFRANCISCO(-2.5)overseattle, UNDER 44.5, and
seattle(+14)overSANFRANCISCO, UNDER 44.5.  The 49ers won, 13-6, and I covered  both ends.

Unfortunately, Doug Martin is running wild, and Tampa Bay leads, 27-10 in the third quarter.  It looks like I will lose both bets.  It stands to reason that now that everybody and his brother is aware of the disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday night, a road dog would win.

Looking back now, Tampa was a bit unlucky not to push the Saints to overtime last week, and the Vikings were perhaps becoming a bit overrated due to some close wins, so Tampa(+7) may have been the smart play.  Fuck it.