Michigan State loses, but I win

 Went out yesterday to watch Michigan State-North Carolina, and while State lost, I had one of my best poker sessions in a long time.

This game was a 1-2 NLHE that played way bigger, due in part to regular straddles. I've seen multiple games like this, from Korea to Texas, so I guess this is what I 'm used to.

It didn't start out well. I got too attached to AJJT double suited in an early bomb pot (this club caps bomb pots at $200, at least limiting the damage one bomb pot can do) and pissed away a couple hundred more on other pots I didn't win, so I'd bought in for $600 before I'd won a pot.

The first big pot I was in I called a $15 or 20 raise in position with QJ off, and the flop came QT-rag. It checked around to me, and I bet about half the pot, getting out everyone but the guy to my right. I improved to two pair as a jack hit the turn, and I bet again, & he called. The river brought a king, and we both checked, as there were four to a straight on the board. Turns out he rivered a higher two-pair, with KJ. He had flopped an open-ended straight draw, and got runner-runner two-pair.

Looking back, I'm half-surprised that he didn't bet the flop, though many people don't bet their draws, and I'm pretty sure he didn't raise pre-flop, so he could have feared a check-raise.

A bit later a fairly aggressive player with a massive stack, a beard and a blue winter hat raised to $15, got at least two callers, and I peeked at QQ in late position, and bumped it to $55, getting three callers. The flop came ace-rag-rag, way too dry for me to not continuation bet. All three checked quickly to me, and I bet one stack of red ($100). This was slightly less than 1/2 the pot, while I tend to c-bet between half and 2/3 pot, but was still big enough that I expected it to get rid of anybody without an ace. I still didn't have much of a stack, but I think I still had enough that I probably wasn't going to shove on the turn if I got a caller with an overcard on the board. Nobody called, so I didn't have to decide.

I called another $15 or $20 raise in position pre-flop with 98s, and got a nine-high flop, the raiser led out for $30, and everybody but me folded. The turn was a ten, and he bet $50. The ten was an overcard to my nines, but probably the least scary one, as he is more likely to have AK or something. I called again. The river was a queen, so now I'm dealing with another overcard. I'm now losing to AQ, AT, and KQ for that matter, or even KT. I'm still beating AK, AJ, or KJ. He thought a bit, before betting $60. Based on his previous betting, If he thought he was ahead I expect more like $75 to 100, so I felt pretty good about my call. "You're good," he said, and mucked without showing. I perhaps should mention that my opponent's table image is a bit iffy. In the past he told me that he banned himself from the casino across the river, implying he has a gambling problem. Maybe he will ban himself from our poker club in the future as well? I get the impression he doesn't mind massive swings in his bankroll. While he lost that hand to me, he was a pretty massive winner yesterday. I think he won as much as I did in about half the time. While I am looking to exploit him, I think there are leakier spots at our table.

The hand that really built my stack came a bit later. I called a $20 raise with A8 of diamonds, and five or six of us saw the flop, which came 964 with two more diamonds. It checked around to me, and I bet $40 with one guy behind me. I got two callers, including the guy behind me. 

The five of diamonds hit the turn, giving me the nut-flush, though I double checked to see which cards on the board were actually diamonds, as the 456 would put a possible straight flush out there. For that matter, 965 would as well. The six was a heart, so I had the nuts, as long as another heart didn't fall, and the board didn't pair. I bet $85, and the guy to my left started counting his chips, telegraphing that if he called he was going all-in. After determining he had $190 he did exactly that. The other guy still in the pot snap called. Since seat nine's all-in was big enough to constitute a raise, I was now able to reraise, so I went all-in as well, the guy who still had chips called again. Since two of us were all-in, we could have agreed to run the river more than once, but nobody spoke up. It turned out that I had a total of $411, making the pot a little under $1500. The big stack had a king-high flush, and the all-in had a ten-high flush. I don't remember what the last card was, but they were both drawing dead.

The fortunate thing for me was that the first all-in had $190, so once the king-high flush called he was pretty much pot committed, as he only needed to call another $221, though the king-high is the one hand most likely to be willing to pay off even more.

The other memorable hand had blue hat raising pre-flop to $40, with me in the small blind with KK. I'm supposed to re-raise here, but I like to control the pot-size out of position, so I just called. The flop was pretty dry, & ten-high. I could go for a check-raise here, but that risked giving a free card, and would probably risk really bloating the pot, depending on who bet, so I led out for $50 or 60. I think I got two callers. I bet another $85 on the turn, and blue hat called while the other guy folded. The river was a queen. I considered going for a check-raise here, but decided it made more sense to value bet. I bet $125. Blue hat thought a bit, asked, "do you have aces or kings? That's the only thing that makes sense." 

"I might," I replied. Nice read on his part, though many players would expect me to raise pre-flop with that. I think there was a possible straight by the river, with QT8 on the board, but it didn't make sense for either of us to have J9. He called, I showed, and he mucked, so I still don't know what he had--maybe AK or AQ? If he has AK I don't see how he calls the river, so maybe AQ or an underpair?

What else? I had TT UTG in a rare, limped around pot, and raised to $10 or $12. At least five or six callers. I don't remember how much my c-bet was, but the flop was 8 or 9 high, ideal for TT, and I didn't ever have to show. Not sure which street the last guy folded on either. Overall, I caught boards with undercards yesterday when I had big pockets, other than flopping an ace with QQ.

As far as bomb pots went, I would catch the nut flush on the turn, only to have it fall to a boat, and get bailed out by my two-pair on the other board. Another nut flush was counterfieted by a second jack on the turn, then a second king on the river, but as it turned out, nobody had a king or a jack, so my flush still won that half of the pot. The other thing about this board is that with Omaha, a player still needs two cards in his hand in order to boat up, so this board isn't as dangerous as it looked. A player would need either the other KK, the other JJ, KJ, or a combination of the other card on the board with K or J, or a pair matching the other card. The kings and jacks on the board makes these possibilities less likely. Anyway, with our $200 cap rule, by the time the second pair hits the river you could already be committed.

I flopped a set of queens and trip nines in one bomb-pot, bet pot, and everybody else folded. Maybe I should have played it a bit slower, but cheap cards can get very expensive in Omaha.

Week 10

 This week all of my bets are double teases with the under. I have green bay(+9.5)/gb @PIT UNDER 44.5, PITTSBURGH(+2.5)/gb@PIT UNDER 44.5. I have tenn(+9)/tenn@TB UNDER 45, TB(+3)/tenn@TB UNDER 45. I have nyj(+5)/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5, LV+7/nyj@LV UNDER 42.5. Oh yeah, and I took car(+9)/ car@CHI UNDER 44, CHI(+3)/ car@CHI UNDER44 on Thursday, which the Bears won, 16-13, a perfect score for my bet.

As usual, I'm targeting the lowest over/unders on the board. I'm also avoiding big spreads. Dallas-NYGiants O/U is 38, but the Cowboys are favored by 17. I don't consider this game a good candidate, as Dallas could hit the over by themselves, and won't cover my tease if they win by 10 or less. Likewise, the Giants don't cover their tease if they lose by more than 23. While these extreme outcomes are still possible in evenly matched games, they are far less likely. If you do the math, you'll see that none of these lines are bigger than PIT(-3.5). This is a spot where I am considering paying more to move the teased Pittsburgh line to +3, instead of +2.5. These low-scoring, outdoor games seem to have more weird flukey events like missed extra points that make 2 or 2.5 point lines more valuable. 

I think all of my last week results were in last week's post, other than Jets-Chargers, and when I wrote it it was already evident that the Jets (and I) were well on our way to losing.

NFL Week 9

 Didn't get around to writing about the NFL this week until Monday night. Took NYJETS(+3.5) over sandiego at the last minute, and right now I'm losing that one, with the Chargers up 7-0...make that 14-0. One of those bets where you have to take the home dog getting 3 or 3.5, or stay away. I was staying away until the last minute, but three had bumped up a half-point.

Otherwise, I got tennessee(+3.5) over PITTSBURGH wrong, as the Steelers waited until the end of the game to take the lead, winning 20-16. I went against the trend of home favorites taking care of business on Thursday night, basically because I like backing Mike Vrabel as a dog, and like fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite. That and Will Levis uncorked some ridiculous deep passes the previous week vs. Atlanta, so I jumped on the rookie's hype train.

On the other hand, I nailed my "dead coach bounce" pick, as the Raiders, fresh off firing Josh Mc Daniels, throttled the NYGiants 30-6, easily covering the LAS VEGAS(-1.5)over nygiants spread. I'm a big believer in betting teams immediately after firing a coach. Many others like this angle as well, though I'm not sure if anybody else has coined "dead coach bounce" besides me. This angle seems that much more bankable when the coach in question is as hated as Mc Daniels is by his own players. Apparently the Raiders were lighting up stogies after the game like they'd won the Super Bowl, because they all were that happy to be done with him.

The only other game I bet was CINCINNATI(-2.5)over buffalo, though when the line dropped to CINCINNATI(-1.5) I bet it again. The Bengals got up by 21-7 at halftime, and held on to win by six. I also threw some $$ on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, at 14-1 at Jackpot Jesus, and at 17-1 on FanDuel. So at this point I have more on them than I do on the Dolphins at 17-1, and that's fine, because I really don't trust the Dolphins. I plan on hedging both of these, probably the Bengals vs. the Chiefs and maybe the Ravens, and the 'Fins against both of these, and probably the Bengals & Bills as well. Hopefully the 'Fins can get a top seed and a bye, so they don't have to get past too many of these teams. If you have to hedge too many times your value gets shredded.

Last week I got Panthers-Texans wrong, Saints-Colts wrong, Bengals-49ers right, Titans-Falcons right, and split on my Jags first half, Steelers final, as Jacksonville won both ends. I was wrong taking the Eagles first half, as they had to come from behind to beat Washington. I think the Eagles covered every first half for the last year & a half, until I mushed it.

NFL Week 8 picks & Week 7 recap

 So what happened last week? San Diego  failed to cover at Kansas City, losing 31-17. My first half bet on the Eagles covered, and they also covered for the game, beating Miami, also by a 31-17 score. At the tail end of the 1:00 games I was under the impression that I was going 6-0 in my UNDER double-teases, until I remembered that for that to happen the games actually needed to be within 6 points of the original point spread, not just below the teased under. I actually went 4-2, highlighted by Atlanta's 16-10 win over Tampa Bay. The Giants and Bears won by too much to let the Raiders & Redskins  sides of my parlays cover.

This week? I've waited to bet until Friday night, perhaps to my detriment, as I think I could have gotten houston(-3), but am now settling for houston(-3.5)over CAROLINA. Both of these teams are coming off their byes, and I expect the better coached team to come into this game better prepared. This game also has a little juice as it features the #1 & #2 QB picks from the last draft. Regardless of the outcome of this game, so far CJ Stroud has clearly won this battle to avoid being a bust. It remains to be seen if Bryce Young can turn this around in the future. Given the rumors I've heard, Young as the first pick happened because of meddling from the Panthers new owner, David Tepper. Not the best omen for a career when your very pick is a blunder stemming from managerial incompetence, even if less egregious than the Giants drafting Daniel Jones in the top five.

Otherwise, I've made a couple more first half bets, taking PHILADELPHIA(-3.5)over washington, and jacksonville(-.5)over PITTSBURGH. The Eagles have covered in the first half seemingly for the past year and a half, and I finally bet them last week. On the flip side, the Steelers have been awful in the first half, somehow managing to get their shit together in the second half in their wins. On that note, I have PITTSBURGH(+2)over jacksonville for the game. The Steelers have been money as a home dog, and these poitions should hedge each other out pretty well if this game doesn't follow the recent script.

Watching the Saints this year has pretty much been an exercise in throwing up in my mouth, while the Colts have been kinda fun, so I took INDIANAPOLIS(+1)over new orleans. Not super satisfying as a home dog, since this is practically a pick, but it's still a home dog.

Sorta terrifying to bet on the Titans with either Malik Willis or Will Levis at the helm, but Tennessee is at home and coming off a bye, so they've had a couple weeks to get one of these guys first team reps, if they didn't split reps between both of them. This could also be a letdown spot for the Falcons after a divisional win vs Tampa Bay last week. TENNESSEE(+2.5)over atlanta.

My last bet (so far) is on Cincinnati at San Francisco. Brock Purdy is out, so this is our first chance to see if Kyle Shanahan's offensive system is so good even Sam Darnold can't fuck it up. Between Cincy's coming off a bye, relative desperation, and additional Niner injuries, I'm willing to back the Bengals. Apparently others have been backing SF, because this line has moved from 49ers(-3.5) to 49ers(-5), so I have cincinnati(+5)over SAN FRANCISCO.

 Pretty disgusting gambling week last week. From memory, I think the only things I got right were CINCINNATI(-3)over seattle (I think they won 21-17), and I took two out of three bets on Dallas at LAChargers, as I had dallas(-1.5), LACHARGERS(+2.5), and I bet the under live. As Dallas won. 20-17, I was never in much danger of the over hitting. I think I had 47.5 or 48.5.

If I was going to let my sharps talk me into the Chargers after I had originally taken Dallas, I should have also flipped from tennessee(+4) over BALTIMORE* to BALTIMORE(-4) over tennessee*, once I heard that the Ravens were travelling to London 2 or 3 days before the Titans, who were going pretty much at the last minute. I'm a big believer in jet lag, along with weather and altitude. Jet lag is real, people, and not to be taken lightly.

This week I went ahead and took lachargers(+6) over KANSAS CITY...actually I took that before the Monday Night game on a look ahead line, as I anticipated that line might drop if the Chargers beat Dallas. Their close loss must have impressed, because the line has dropped to 5.5. Given how close these teams have played each other in the Mahomes-Herbert era, I still would take the Chargers at +5.5.

Otherwise, at this point I've done three double under teasers. Unders came in heavy last week, as they have most of this season, and now we have several teams playing their backup QBs, so I expect this scoring deficit to continue. I teased the Jacksonville at New Orleans UNDER up to 46.5, bumping the paired lines to SAINTS(+4) and jaguars(+8). It looks like Trevor Lawrence is going to play, but between his sprained knee, Derek Carr's general malaise, and the Saints seeming inability to score more than 20 points, and this game seems unlikely to get to 47 points.

Likewise with Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Desmond Ritter is the punch line of a raft of jokes these days, and Baker Mayfield hasn't exactly gone wild either, even if he has outperformed our low expectations. I teased the under from 37.5 to 43.5, pairing it with atlanta (+8.5) and TAMPA B(+3.5). I haven't even gotten to the games with backups playing yet.

CHICAGO(+9), UNDER 44, and las vegas(+3), UNDER 44. Justin Fields is out. I'm not sure about Jimmy Garrapolo (sp), but he is a bum.

Tyrod Taylor vs. Sam Howell, which is to say, Washington at NY Giants(+3), o/u 37.5--this totally fits our criteria of teams we trust more to NOT score than to score. GIANTS(+9)/U 43.5, c-words(+3), U 43.5.

* London game, not a true home game for the Ravens.

Louisville over Notre Dame, Week 5 recap, Week Six pix

 My best pick last week was one I didn't bet, as Jacksonville(+5.5) upset Buffalo in London, 25-20. The rest went worse.

I also got COLTS(+2.5) over titans right, as Indy defended their home field, winning outright, 23-16. Meanwhile the PATRIOTS(+1) didn't come close to defending their home field, losing to the saints, 34-0. My double or triple teaser of Ravens at Steelers broke even, with the Steelers & the under leg hitting, & the rest missing. Steelers, 17-10.

houston(+1.5) almost came through, losing at ATLANTA, 21-19. After that the three dogs I bet in the afternoon all put up a bit of a fight, before letting the favorites pull away. I had MINNESOTA(+3.5)over kansas city, so the Vikes lost, 27-20. I had LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia, so the Rams lost, 23-14, and I had ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati, so the Cardinals lost, 34-20. I finally bounced back with LAS VEGAS(-2.5) over green bay, as the Raiders won, 17-13. That's a lot of losing, 3-6 by my count.

I didn't feel bad about losing with Arizona, as I had resolved to fade the Bengals until Joe Burrow looked right. Since he did last week, I now have taken CINCINNATI(-2.5)over seattle. The one thing that makes me reconsider a bit is that the Seahawks are coming off their bye. Yes, we now are in that part of the season where we should pay attention to byes.

I took TENNESSEE(+4) over baltimore before realizing that this Titans "home game" is actually being played in London...or perhaps Germany. I still think the line is too big, though not as no-brainer too big as if they were playing in Nashville.

I took TAMPA BAY(+3.5) over detroit. The Bucs are coming off a bye, and since when do the Lions give points on the road? Well, if you check the odds, Detroit is currently considered more likely to win the NFC Championship than Dallas, though it took the Lions hanging 40 on Carolina, while the Cowboys gave up 40 to the 49ers to make that happen. We'll see how long that lasts. If the Cowboys find a way to lose at the Chargers and fall to 3-3 it could last for a while.

Speaking of which, I have a chance at a middle, as I have taken dallas(-1.5) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, and also have taken LACHARGERS(+2.5)over dallas. My initial thought was that the Cowboys will probably be very motivated after losing my 30-something to San Francisco, and perhaps the line has moved a bit because of this loss as well. After betting it, I learned that some of the sharps I follow love the Chargers this week, as they believe Dallas will struggle to contain the Chargers passing game now that Trevon Diggs is out, and like fading Mike McCarthy vs. Chargers OC (and former Dallas OC) Kellen Moore. Come to think of it, I do too, especially when the Chargers are coming off a bye, and Moore presumably has an extra week to come up with ways to beat his former team. Is this the Kellen Moore revenge game? Maybe not, but I believe the Cowboys replaced Moore to protect Mike McCarthy, so if I'm Moore I'd like to embarrass Mike McCarthy.

I took san francisco(-6.5)over CLEVELAND. I would have gotten -5.5, but FanDuel couldn't tell that I was in a state where gambling was allowed, even though BOTH sides of the Kentucky-Indiana border now have legal sports betting. In the last 8 hours or so I've seen this line climb from 7.5, to 8.5 to now 9.5, so apparently I've gotten a bargain, and I'm assuming DeSean Watson isn't playing. I've heard this game called a letdown spot, and even a schedule loss, but without Watson I don't see how that happens.

Haven't bet anything else yet, but here are my leans:

CHIGAGO(+3)over minnesota, arizona(+7)over LARAMS, MIAMI(-13.5)over carolina, indianapolis(+4.5)over JACKSONVILLE.

Week 4 recap, Week 5 bets

 Weird week four--I ended up 5-5-1, including 0-2-1 in games where one of the QBs didn't play. These were:

Baltimore 28, Cleveland 3. I had CLEVELAND(-2.5), and DeShawn Watson didn't play. Apparently there was some wildly different line out there and I never saw it. 0-1

Minnesota 21, Carolina 13. I had CAROLINA(+4)--in this one I wanted backup Andy Dalton to play over rookie starter Bryce Young, but that's not what happened. 0-2

LAChargers 24, Las Vegas 17--I took las vegas(+7) fairly late. I believe the line move was because Jimmy G was out, but I wouldn't be surprised if Aidan O'Connell is rated higher than Jimmy G in the near future. Also, he wears #4, and looks weirdly like Derek Carr, who the Raiders shipped to the Saints. Teams should wait at least a couple more years to recycle numbers, especially when the new guy plays the same position and is a dead-ringer. Otherwise it's confusing AF. 0-2-1

Buffalo 48, Miami 20--I took the Fins(+3). Still don't mind my 17-1 ticket on them to win the Super Bowl. Should be easy to hedge. 0-3-1

LARams 29, Indy 23--I had rams(+1)--1-3-1

Tampa Bay 26, New Orleans 9--I had tampa bay(+4)...actually another game where the "wrong" QB started, as injured Derek Carr started over Jameis Winston. Saints need to figure out QB, as Carr completed 13 passes to Alvin Kamara for 33 yards, and about 130 yards on 30+ completions, stat lines that don't even seem possible, let alone desirable--2-3-1.

Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 3--I had TENNESSEE(+2.5)--didn't know the Titans were capable of blowing anybody out, but the Bengals are awful right now.--3-3-1.

Houston 30, Pittsburgh 6--I had TEXANS(+3)--people are about to figure out that Stroud is pretty good. Meanwhile, I don't think I'm quite dialed in on the Steelers, as I probably got lucky taking them vs. the Browns, and I lost fading them vs. the Raiders.--4-3-1

Kansas City 23, NY Jets 20--I had chiefs(-9.5)--the Chiefs blew a big lead in this game, and at the end Patrick Mahomes downed the ball at the one to avoid covering the spread. He'll never become Sean McVay like that.--4-4-1.

Oh yeah, on Thursday I teased the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, and the first one hit. 5-5-1.

On to this week--

Pretty sure staying in London for consecutive weeks will benefit Jacksonville(+5.5) and make them the right side. Additionally, Buffalo could be due for a letdown after their "game of the year" win over Miami. On the flip side is the Bills penchant for winning by wide margins. Haven't pulled the trigger on this, and don't intend to be awake to watch it.

I had almost managed to talk myself into a letdown by CJ Stroud, until I heard some stat about teams returning from London without taking a bye. I don't think there's a long list of examples, since most teams take their bye afterwards, but it spells doom for Atlanta. Consider that the Falcons need to travel further than the Texans for this home game. How much does that blunt their home field advantage? houston(+1.5)over ATLANTA. The money seems to be moving this way, as I saw a (+2) a couple days ago.

INDIANAPOLIS(+2.5)over tennessee--I take it bettors were impressed with the Titans' beatdown of the Bengals last week. Now we get to see if they actually deserve to be road favorites. I got this line on FanDuel, as the locals have driven the line down to 1.5 on Jackpot Jesus.

NEW ENGLAND(+1) over new orleans--this one is a pick on JJ, so I'm betting it on FD before it moves. May also do a double tease of both teams and the under (39.5) as both of these teams have strong defenses, and varying degrees of wild dysfunction on offense. Give me the home dog outdoors vs. the road favorite dome team.

LARAMS(+4.5) over philadelphia-- Eagles have been winning a lot of close games. I may regret this, as Matthew Stafford has some sort of hip injury, and the Rams are down a left tackle, but if Stafford can stay of his feet long enough to feed the returning Cooper Kupp, as well as debutant Puka Nacua, the Rams can keep this close, &/or backdoor cover like the Vikes. This one is down to 4 on JJ.

MINNESOTA(+3.5) over kansas city--might wait on this one to see if it gets back to 4. Backing Minnesota has me throwing up in my mouth a little bit, but you gotta admit, the Vikings are certainly more capable of keeping the game close than the Jets. Might tease this with the OVER(52.5).

ARIZONA(+3)over cincinnati--Are people betting the Bengals, or on a shadow of the Bengals? I imagine if Joe Burrow avoids getting reinjured the Bengals will eventually improve, I think they deserve to be faded until this happens. I don't expect the Cardinals to pull off an upset as they did vs. Dallas a couple weeks ago over and over, but so far they have been scrappy enough to keep it close.

baltimore(-4) at PITTSBURGH--you may need to price-shop to find this line, as I have now seen -4.5. The dog has a ridiculous record in this game, something like 22-5, so you need to consider if Pittsburgh sucks enough to warrant this line. At this point I have teased Pittsburgh and the under(38), and parleyed Baltimore and the under(+180), and Baltimore and the over(+200). Hopefully I hit on 2 out of 3.

Week 3 Disintegration Recap, Week 4 Picks

Disgusting week--only won on two games, Niners over Giants, and Texans over Jags. Packers and Rams almost came through for me, but I didn't get good enough numbers. I'm moving on. The results are below.

 tennessee(+3.5)over CLEVELAND--Browns, 27-3 L

GREEN BAY(-2) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 L

GREEN BAY(-1) over new orleans--Packers, 18-17 PUSH

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over indianapolis--Colts, 22-19, L

houston (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE--Texans, 37-17, W

atlanta(+4) over DETROIT--Lions, 20-6, L

MINNESOTA (pk) over los angeles chargers--Chargers, 28-24 L

LAS VEGAS (-1) over pittsburgh--Steelers, 23-18, L

los angeles rams(+2.5) over CINCINNATI--Bengals, 19-16 L

tampa bay(+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA--Eagles, 25-11 L

AND, SAN FRANCISCO(-10.5) 30, new york giants 12, and SAN FRANCISCO(-11) 30, over new york giants 12.

Almost forgot-- won my double tease on the JETS and the under, and the pats and the under. The Pats 15-10 win was well under the actual 36.5 UNDER, as well as the teased 42.5, and the Jets could have lost by 9 or so and covered,

Too emotionally involved in the Thursday night game. GREEN BAY(+1.5) is the right side, but I just got burned fading the Lions (though that worked for me with the Seahawks). I did a double tease, with the Lions and the over, and the Packers and the under, I might take the Lions & under, and the Packers and over, to complete the teaser box.

I've taken kansas city(-9.5) over NYJETS. Usually I love getting points vs, the Chiefs, but after last weekend's beatdown of Chicago, we have to consider if we are at a stage of the season where KC just rolls up shitty teams. The Jets are not truly a shitty team, but a solid team with a shitty QB. Is the Jets defense good enough to keep this close? Rather than overthink this, I gave the 9.5 before it gets to 10 or 10.5.

I took miami(+3) at BUFFALO-- the wiseguys love Buffalo here, but at least I got the best of the number--mostly Buffalo is favored by 2.5. FWIW, Buffalo's home field advantage isn't particularly pronounced in September. On the flip side, Miami's sweltering heat is less pronounced in December, or whenever these teams play again.

Similarly, I took CLEVELAND(-2.5) over baltimore. The sharps like the Ravens here, but they definitely like them better at (+3), so at least I got the better of the number. This will be the biggest test of the Browns defense, as my understanding is they built this defense primarily to beat the Ravens, though since the Ravens have revamped their offense, I'm not sure which Ravens teams they were constructed to beat. In this case I also have the home team, unlike in Buffalo.

Additional bets I've made later in the week:

tampabay(+4) over NEWORLEANS: this opened at 3--I think there's value on the Bucs, especially with Winston playing QB for the Saints.

HOUSTON(+3) over pittsburgh--love the Steelers as a home dog; not so much as a road favorite.

larams(+1) at INDIANAPOLIS--this line is all over the place--you can find the Colts as a dog too.

lasvegas(+7) over LACHARGERS--line moved from 6.5 this morning--Mike Williams is out for the season, and the Raiders will probably have more fans at the game than the Chargers.

TENNESEE(+2.5) over cincinnati--Vrabel as a home dog--having said that, the Titans are ugly af to bet on.